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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/22/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:15
I'd still put Correa second — he's second active in JAWS but the gap is widening by the year, and  Declining defense and health issues are putting Bogaerts, Seager, and Turner further behind; they're each separated by a few points. I wouldn't expect much rapid movement on this front for awhile.
Lindor Ramirez
1:15
They've both had rather similar careers and seem slated for the Hall. Which do you think will have the best overall career in the end?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
Very tough call, but barring a trade, I think only Lindor — who's already had the better postseason career of the two, with some signature moments — has the chance to win a World Series. So I'll go with him.
Joey Caltrain
1:18
Who gets pushed out of the Phillies' playoff rotation? Luzardo has pitched so well. Is it him anyway? Suarez? Nola?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
Don't count your rotation chickens before October, because the odds are high this will resolve itself by somebody hitting the injured list.
Endy Chavez
1:19
Is Brett Baty good? Do the Mets still need another bat?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:20
I'd call Baty a useful player with some major flaws (OBP and vs. LHP being the big ones). I think the Mets have the bodies to cobble together 3B; their big lineup need is a center fielder.
Joey Caltrain
1:21
It worked out great the last time the Nationals traded an ace for a Dodgers catching prospect joy
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
Yeah, and that was just a rental. Scherzer was great if something of a pain in the ass complaining about not being allowed to pitch deeper — a complaint that has been followed by him showing his age and spending a lot of time on the IL as he battles Father Time.
LA/Sacramento Trade
1:24
Bobby Miller, Edgardo Henriquez, Andy Pages, and lotto ticket type prospect for Mason Miller. Who says no
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:24
The Dodgers, who really need Pages these days amid so many struggling or injured position players
Sanford
1:25
Pretty incredible that Acuña hasn't torpedoed his HOF track despite tearing both ACLs. With ~30 WAR through his age-27 season, would you put his odds over/under 50%?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:26
Still very much under. He has 28.4 career WAR, with two seasons of 4.0 or better, the only ones where he's played at least 120 games. Dude has got to stay on the field.
Your Name
1:27
You are harsh. I'd vote for Mr. 2 WAR even if he only had 40 2 win seasons.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
hey, somebody has to be picky about who gets into the Hall.
Ok i saw a question or two to answer before goign
Opifijikl
1:28
What is the earliest into a career that you would be willing to predict that the player is a Hall of Famer? I'm thinking about someone like Soto. Are there any other players, former or current, who gave off early hall of famer signs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:29
This Q made me think of Shohei Ohtani. In March 2023, when he had just five seasons and one MVP award under his belt, Dan and I mulled his case on a podcast and concluded he was likely https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-jay-jaffe-and-dan-szymbors...
NYY
1:30
What do you make of Spencer Jones? Is there hope he's figured something sustainable out? Is this just a ridiculous hot streak?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:31
I think the talent evaluators who are concerned about Jones' contact rate are probably correct. He'll have a Joey Gallo-like impact with some spectacular power and maybe a couple big seasons but that swing and miss is going to overwhelm his profile and the perception of him if he's anything less than star-level.
OK now it's time to go. Thanks so much for stopping by!
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