JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/25/23

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Syndergaardengnomes

2:35

Good afternoon! Think the Mets will trade Verlander or Scherzer? Even if they pick up a substantial amount of money, seems difficult to imagine a huge market...

Jay Jaffe

2:36

I'm skeptical, because i think the money and the no-trade clauses and their declining performances (and recent injuries) will make it very hard to line up with another team

bringbackpologrounds

2:37

Hello Jay. In your delightful Cooperstown casebook series, you note that Mookie Betts projects to a 63 bWAR at the end of the season, and his JAWS score is already first-ballot status. I think Betts has a great chance to finish with 90-100 bWAR with somewhat modest counting stats (2000 hits, 375 HRs)...how will his legacy be viewed by the old crowd/HOF voters at the time?

Jay Jaffe

2:38

Even before this stellar season, he projected for just short of 2,400 hits and 400 homers via ZiPS, which is a bit beyond what you're suggesting. I don't think it's really going to matter what the "old crowd" thinks — Hall of Fame voters 10 years from now will be quite aware of how good he is and probably less attached to milestone numbers as voters of yesteryear.

Cameron Kear

2:39

Jay, What’s going on with the A’s stadium saga? Haven’t heard anything about it in a while. Could they stay in Oakland?

Jay Jaffe

2:41

I don't really know a whole lot but things have slowed down since the legislative session in Las Vegas. For one thing, the owners have to approve the move, and some other steps have to happen in LV to issue bonds to develop the site. See https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/amid-questions-over-stadium-s...

2:42

There's also some question as to whether the current site can even fit a ballpark, which if it can't will start the legislative process over.

Brad in Wellfleet

2:44

Hello from Pleasant Point on Blackfish Creek! Justin Steele...how exactly does he get the results he does with just a 91-93 4-seemer and OK slider?

Jay Jaffe

2:47

I'm not entirely sure, either. Steele does a very good job of limiting hard contact, and while his fastball velo is unimpressive, he gets very good spin (82nd percentile) and atypical movement (see https://theathletic.com/4430884/2023/04/19/cubs-justin-steele-unique-f...). His delivery is deceptive as well, which helps.

Jason

2:47

Similar to the Berkman question, what might Carlos Delgado need to gain further consideration? He was great for 13 years, came up probably one year short of 500 homers, and his candidacy was summarily dismissed.

Jay Jaffe

2:50

I love Carlos Delgado for his outspokenness on things that matter, but he's a bit short in the hall department, because despite the homers, he didn't have a ton of value in other areas of the game. -26 baserunning runs, -65 fielding runs via B-Ref, and so you have a guy who barely cleared 50 WAR and ranks 38th among 1B (44.4 /34.5/39.4) with lesser numbers than McGriff. He won't even be eligible for Era Committee consideration until after what would have been his 10-year window runs out this winter, and there just aren't a ton of guys from the sub-5% group who make the leap to the ballot with any speed — ask Lou Whitaker.

Scott

2:52

When did Fangraphs first come about? How many years has it's been?

Jay Jaffe

2:53

It started in 2005. Here's an Athletic story about its early years https://theathletic.com/2229556/2020/12/04/fangraphs-baseball-writing-...

First Place Orioles

2:53

I know this can be filed under "way too early to answer" but who do you personally think is a more likely HoFer - Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson?

Jay Jaffe

2:54

offhand I'd say it's Gunnar, because he reached the majors at 21, compared to 23 for Adley.

Jason

2:54

Do you think Dan Quisenberry has any shot at the hall? Per your one subpar choice doesn't justify another, Quisenberry doesn't seem meaningfully worse than Bruce Sutter. I don't necessarily think Sutter is undeserving, but I wonder if Q has a shot to get in or if the standards are a bit too high for him.

Jay Jaffe

2:58

I don't see a chance, sorry. I loved Quisenberry, and while his numbers are a very good match for Sutter in terms of innings and WAR, and he has an advantage in ERA+ and in R-JAWS (which includes WPA), he wasn't the pioneer that Sutter was — both in terms of popularizing the split-fingered fastball and in being used as the save-focused closer (they're 56 saves apart in Sutter's favor). Getting on the ballot at this point is particularly tough given the smaller ballots and recent process change, and not having big counting stats.

omg_pwnasaurus

2:58

I find it very difficult to get hyped about the HOF anymore when the best hitter and best pitcher of my generation are not in while the veteran's committee either elects someone that they played with/for that they like and/or they elect someone just to make a point about the PED era. Perhaps the managers whose career wins/rings were aligned with that era as well should also be penalized then? It all seems very arbitrary and at this point has (imo) had the inverse effect of what they seem to be trying to prove where at least from my perspective, it's become far less interesting.

Jay Jaffe

2:59

You don't have to care. The institution and its processes have their flaws, as does the logic that's put some of the best players on the outside while those who enabled them are in. Some of us are devoted to doing what we can to improve the situation and to appreciate what's there, but it's hardly mandatory for every fan to feel that way.

3:00

What would you do if you were the Cubs right now? Still too early to tell or is the small chance of winning the division just not worth missing out on trading Bellinger/Stroman at their peaks?

Jay Jaffe

3:02

I'd be more inclined to sell because there just aren't that many sellers, and as you suggest, those guys are near peak value.

Guest

3:03

Lot of Arenado to the Dodgers rumors flying last few days. Do you have any idea why the Dodgers would send out prospects for him when they have Muncy, an everyday DH only, and lots of other needs? I am so confused how this became a thing.

Jay Jaffe

3:07

Muncy hasn't been quite the same player since his elbow injury, but he does have some positional utility; he can play first, second and third. He might also be a trade candidate if the Dodgers do get Arenado, who would be an upgrade. IMO, a lot depends on how much money is changing hands here, though, as Arenado is owed over $100 million through 2027.

Matt VW

3:08

I always enjoy the replacement killers series. Do you have thoughts on how many (if any) positional killers a team can carry and still make the playoffs? Make a deep run in the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe

3:11

I don't think there's any set number but let's note that last year's NL champion Phillies made the midseason list at SS, 3B, CF, and RF, though only the two outfield spots finished with less than 1 WAR, and they did at least add Marsh in center field to give themselves a Wet Guy

v2micca

3:11

If I set the over/under at 7 for the number of additional Shohei Ohtani game used items that will be featured in the Hall of Fame from his career, would you take the over or under?

Jay Jaffe

3:11

Over, because there will be something on that order in his display case when he's inducted.

TKDC

3:11

Were you surprised by the somewhat smaller crowd in Cooperstown this weekend? I especially thought I’d see more Phillies fans show up.

Jay Jaffe

3:14

No, not really — and the crowd was far less than the estimate of 10,000 offered by the Hall (these things are always inflated). With only two honorees compared to five or six from recent years, it was bound to be a smaller turnout. Both players spent only a handful of years with teams that were within driving distance, and let's face it, a sizable contingent of Phillies fans will forever be at odds with Rolen for turning down the big contract extension and going on to greater success elsewhere.

Kevin

3:14

You said you got to do some pretty fun stuff in Cooperstown. Tell us more!

Jay Jaffe

3:18

The biggest highlights were going to the Friday afternoon get-together at the Hotel Otesaga in honor of BBWAA Career Excellence Award winner John Lowe and to the Hall of Fame plaque gallery cocktail party on Saturday evening. I had a chance at both to talk to a ton of writers I respect, met a few Hall of Famers (including favorites Robin Yount and Jim Thome) and spotted dozens more (pointedly did not shake the hand of one, ahem), heard some very nice things about my work, caught up with a ton of friends who are either Cooperstown-based or show up every year, including my hosts, and made a "20 Years of JAWS" presentation at the post-induction SABR meeting.

Marcus

3:18

If the Yankees miss the playoffs, is Cashman out of a job?

Jay Jaffe

3:18

No, but I'd bet Boone is.

3:19

I keep thinking the same as Hayes above about Ohtani, there should be a discount built in for the risk of losing both your best hitter and #1 or #2 SP, BUT all it takes is one owner to not worry about this risk and his price is through the roof.

Jay Jaffe

3:19

if you're sitting around waiting for a discount on Ohtani, you're going to watch him put on another team's uniform.

v2micca

3:19

Which team actually making a compelling effort to sign Ohtani this off-season would personally surprise you the most?

Jay Jaffe

3:22

Anybody who has a payroll in the lower half of teams save for the Mariners, plus at least the White Sox, Astros, and Cardinals from those in the upper half.

Grand Admiral Braun

3:22

Can the Cubs sell Stroman and yet still be in-it and "buyers?"

Jay Jaffe

3:23

It's possible but they'd have to get back some quality pitching in order for that to make sense

Keith

3:23

Dejected Royals fan here Terrible MLB team and bottom five farm system. What could possibly make them competitive in the next five years?

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