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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/25/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
a new regime.
Marcus
3:24
Favorite place to see a band in NYC, past and present?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
I tend to love smaller venues but not too small. I miss CBGB's and Brownies. Bowery Ballroom (official capacity 575) might be my favorite, as it's well-run, has decent beer, and so on — and I've been going to that one for over 20 years. Brooklyn Made, which has great beer and a wide stage, is an excellent venue but a schlep to get to, and it's not being booked as well as it used to. I really miss Bell House, which had a lot of the same in its favor but was much closer
>this guy<
3:27
Immaculate Grid is the most fun I have all day sometimes. Thanks for sharing your results. It's how I found out.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
I spent so much time talking about Immaculate Grid with friends — some of whom work at the Hall — this past weekend.
Skip
3:28
Wait, can I walk around the Hall of Fame with beer in hand? That changes everything!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
Alas, you can't, unless you get invited to the plaque room party.
Kevin
3:28
Who would you at least consider voting for at this point on next year’s HOF ballot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
Something along the lines of "everyone I've voted for before, plus Beltré, Mauer and Utley"
Bongo
3:29
Is Chas McCormick breaking out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
His slash line suggests that he is (.282/.371/.531), but his statcast numbers are similar to last year, and he has only a .237 xBA and .437 xSLG. Beware regression
Immaculate Griz
3:31
Which over 30 player has the best chance to play their way into HOF contention?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
The one that was most notable to me when I did my roundup was Marcus Semien, who's really made great strides lately.
Dan
3:31
Is rest of career projections somewhere publicly accessible or is it something you run internally in service of research or an article?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
No, it's a Szymborski spreadsheet he shared with me, and it's already out of date.
Bert
3:32
Nobody seems to be talking about the Pads’ run differential. Way higher than SFG and ARI. Their Pythagorean record has them much higher. It’s getting late but would a turnaround really shock you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:34
Not tremendously. They have a lot of good players underperforming, and have played better than their record suggests, though they're just 6-16 in one-run games. Fix first base, figure out what's going on with Darvish, fortify the bullpen, I can see them having a shot at a playoff spot.
Skip
3:34
I'm heading to Cooperstown in September for the day. Anything that is on the "can't miss" list?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
I guess it depends on how much time you can spend at the Hall. The relatively recent exhibits  — A Whole New Ballgame, Shoebox Treasures, Viva Baseball, Diamond Dreams (women in baseball), and Negro Leagues — are very much worth catching if you've already done the historical stuff. The Hank Aaron display on the third floor is great, and the stat-related artifacts on 3 are really fun, too.
Bert
3:37
Do the underlying stats tell you Kim is playing over his head remarkably?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:38
Yeah, a bit (.270 AVG vs .246 xBA, .447 SLG vs. .383 xSLG), but his glove and versatility are key parts of his value
Urban Shocker
3:38
Will Mookie's HoF case have any cheating stink on it from the 2018 Red Sox sign stealing scheme? Still a great player but, coincidence or not, that was his best offensive season by far.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
I doubt it will have much impact. Yes, those might be his best offensive numbers — compiled in a hitter-friendly park, let us note — but the fact that he's had other MVP-caliber seasons and has never really had a bad one to this point is what's going to stand out to voters
Colton
3:42
I'm sure you've been asked this plenty of times and I've missed them, but do you have any strong thoughts about tweener-type CF and their HOF candidacy? I'm referring specifically to guys like Lofton, Andruw Jones and Edmonds. They all played great CF and were solid offensively but seem to not get the love from voters that they might deserve in some respects.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:44
Jones is trending towards election. Lofton and Edmonds landed on the ballot at a tough time and fell victim to the 5% rule. The latter doesn't have the defensive metrics that align with his reputation, and his career counting stats are short as well, so it's not a surprise he went one-and-done. Lofton was more of a travesty but he may have missed his best chance to get onto the Era Committee ballot with this last year https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kenny-lofton-accus...
Mike S
3:44
Are you docking Mauer at all for spending roughly 40% of his career at 1st?  Is it unreasonable to like the careers of guys like Brian McCann, Yadi Molina, Buster Posey and even Russell Martin over him due to the fact that they stayed at catcher for longer and/or for a greater percentage of their careers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:48
here's the thing: a good-hitting catcher accrues value quickly, a light-hitting first baseman does not, so it's not as though Mauer put himself at at some advantage by moving to first, which happened BECAUSE OF THE REPEATED CONCUSSIONS HE SUSTAINED AT CATCHER, let us not forget.

Mauer's value at catcher was was more than enough to put him over the top. His peak score, based on his best seven seasons, all at catcher,  ranks fifth all-time, and he's seventh in JAWS. We haven't even gotten into the pitch-framing part of the discussion, and he was good there, though Posey, Martin, Molina, and McCann were even better.
Ok folks, that's my pitch count. Thanks so much for stopping by. Next week's availability is TBD due to the impending trade deadline.
But we'll have tons of coverage at FanGraphs, of course, so tune in!
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