Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/28/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks! I'm back from my Induction Weekend trip to Cooperstown, with my final chat before the August 3 trade deadline.
12:03
My writeup of Sunday's induction ceremony and  the weekend's other festivities is in the editorial pipeline. Compared to last year, this was a subdued weekend. Jeff Kent (who gave the best of the three speeches), Carlos Beltrán, and Andruw Jones just don't have the universal appeal of Ichiro Suzuki — who does? — at least not enough to compel as many people to travel to Cooperstown in high season. Last year an estimated 30,000 people were at induction day, compared to 12,000 — a number that looks very inflated to these eyes but it's what was officially reported — this year.
Matt
12:04
How many times have you been to Cooperstown and what's your favorite restaurant there? Partial to breakfast at the Doubleday Cafe myself
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
I think this was my 14th trip to Cooperstown, and this is the first calendar year I've made it twice. I first went in 2000, via a spur-of-the-moment detour on an upstate trip suggested by my then-girlfriend (bless her wherever she is), then in 2003, and annually from '16–25 plus twice this year. I was supposed to go twice in 2020, but after a February Hot Stove Weekend fundraiser for the Friends of Doubleday Field, the pandemic scrubbed that year's induction ceremonies.
12:10
I honestly don't eat particularly well when I'm in C'town except at the home of my hosts, former Cooperstown mayor Jeff Katz and his wife Karen. I do like the burgers at Doubleday Cafe but they're not as good as the ones at the tiny Cooperstown Diner across the street. Spurbeck's Grocery has very good sandwiches but they're not open on weekends, and Danny's, which was once my weekend-sandwich-of-choice spot, is under new management and was dealing only pre-made Sandwiches of Sadness this weekend. I did have a couple of excellent meals at Mel's at 22, which is a somewhat elevated menu and probably my top recommendation.
BuccoFan
12:11
Hi Jay - if you had to bet, who do you think gets the 3rd NLWC spot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
Our Playoff Odds have the Pirates there (47.4%) and I'm reasonably optimistic about them, provided they don't sit on their hands at the deadline. The other team I'd keep an eye on is the Padres, who for all of their recent problems do seem to be able to remake their rosters at the deadline every year
drplantwrench
12:13
over/under angels trade 2.5 players this deadline - which are you taking?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
I'll take the over. They'll trade Adell because the market for right-handed hitters is so weak, probably either Detmers or Soriano, and I bet somebody like Yates — plus perhaps some minor leaguers to help facilitate larger swaps.
12 to six
12:15
i hesitate to say this for fear of putting bad juju into the world, but passan's momentary mention raised my antenna. however: given tibbs and sirota (and ward) all look close to, if not fully, ready, and teo's defensive rep, would teo and a bit of cash (if needed) for lagrange and, say, sean duncan from the yanks be crazy? sirota in lf right now, particularly with kiké coming back, looks logical and would be a defensive improvement right off the jump.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
I wouldn't be surprised if Teoscar Hernández ends up being traded if the Dodgers are willing to eat a lot of his remaining contract (he's signed through 2027) but even given how stocked they are with near-ready outfielders I hesitate to suggest they're going to put all their eggs into a basket with an untested rookie. More likely they'd find a stopgap, maybe an upgrade on Call (whose boneheaded ABS challenges a few weeks ago still loom large).
12:20
another scenario: Kiké (please remember to use that accent if your'e not going with Enrique, which is our site style) could very well figure in a LF platoon with Hyeseong Kim if Teoscar gets traded.
Viva Montenegro
12:20
Beltran seemed to take a more belligerent stance in defending his role in the 2017 cheating scandal. He seems to remain respected by both media and baseball alums. Do you think that if some of the guys associated with PEDs had taken a similar tact with their own cases (as opposed to silence or ambiguous contrition), they would be treated differently now? Or are PEDs and advanced sign stealing just not comparable?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
I think the complexities of the sign-stealing scandal, and the fact that he was the lone active player identified, sets his case apart from the PED guys. I think they — Bonds et al — would have been better off trying to take a more conciliatory stance with regards to their own actions. "I felt pressure to keep up, I made mistakes that at the time I viewed as falling along the continuum of what players did to be their best, like greenies..." etc.
war2d2
12:22
I still have a hard time believing that Kent made it. I realize the choice of who gets to be on the committee list is opaque, but the fact that he got on there (and was voted in!) and Lou Whittaker didn’t is still just mind boggling to me.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
Honestly, I don't think the election of Kent should be shocking at all. "Most home runs by a second baseman" is an easy elevator pitch that could have been engineered to appeal to an Era Committee voter.
12:26
Kent is 22nd in JAWS among second basemen, lower than the 11 BBWAA-elected guys. But he's ahead of 7 of the other 9 committee choices.
12:27
What makes him stand out like a sore thumb isn't his ranking there or vis-à-vis the absence of Whitaker, who doesn't have as easy a hook, it's in relation to Bonds
drplantwrench
12:28
one name you didnt mention on the angels is zach neto.  do you think a neto for Arias deal with boston is feasible? or does he not get traded at all?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
I think it's possible the Angels trade Neto but it's a longer shot because he's one of the most valuable trade chips they have. They should feel as though they need to be bowled over to move him because he's so young and inexpensive, with three years of control remaining.
Nickname (required)
12:31
Who returns a better prospect package for the Cardinals: Noot, O'Brien, or May?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
I don't see the Cardinals as far enough outside the playoff picture that they're going to blow up their roster. May's value is down because he's scuffled lately — a pending free agent like that isn't going to bring back a package so much as a take-a-flier guy.

O'Brien, the closer, may be the exception, because they can deal him as a club control guy, then shuffle through internal options or land somebody who is functionally equivalent but may be a pending FA.
TKDC
12:36
With Curaçao now crossed off the list, what’s the next country to have its first hall of famer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
Ooh, I'd have to think about that one. South Korea doesn't have anybody imminent. Neither does Mexico, which has produced hundreds of players yet somehow nobody who's landed in Cooperstown (I think career bWAR leader Fernando Valenzuela is more likely to get the Buck O'Neil Award than full election). Aruba has Xander Bogaerts, who has 43 bWAR but is in decline.
Here's a good place to start: https://www.baseball-reference.com/bio/country_bat.shtml If anyone has better ideas, let me know
war2d2
12:42
Cubs are playing very well, and make me wonder what they could have looked like with a healthy Horton and Brown at the top of the rotation. They clearly don’t have the horses to make it through the playoffs right now (looking at you, game 1 pitcher Shota Imanaga). Hoyer isn’t one for making big trades that mortgage some or all of the future, especially when it’s unlikely they’ll catch the Brewers. That said, what second-tier starters do you think will be moved? Seems like Detmers and Soriano on the Angels are moving, Robbie Ray is almost certainly moving, and probably Sandy on the Marlins. Have to say that’s an uninspiring group, given current performance.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
The Mets' Freddy Peralta has been pretty uninspiring but may be fine with a change of scenery. Luis Castillo or Emerson Hancock appear likely to be dealt by the Mariners. The Royals' Michael Wacha seems like a guy who might move.
war2d2
12:45
I guess the thing about Kent that rankles me most is that his one claim to fame, the HR at 2B record, almost certainly wouldn’t have happened if Sandberg hadn’t had his career cut short by a broken wrist, a public spat with Larry Himes (Cubs’ GM), and a messy divorce. That’s been bugging me for 30 years, and this just opens the wound back up.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
Sandberg made his choice and things played out as they did. Kent surpassed him in home runs in part because he played in a higher-scoring era, but he also helped more teams to the playoffs and won an MVP award (albeit a very RBI-fueled one). it's not THAT hard to understand his election.
Viva Montenegro
12:48
A couple weeks ago you could’ve argued the Marlins were in a rare position to buy at the deadline. Now, not so much… and it feels like they don’t really have all that much to sell. What would you do if you were running that team?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
I still think it's worth putting patches on 3B and DH and going for a playoff spot because they're hardly out of it. Trading guys and white-flagging it isn't going to win them fans
MF Luder
12:51
Do you expect the Mets to make any trades beyond Peralta and bullpen pieces?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
I think they'll move Luis Robert Jr., and it wouldn't surprise me if they deal Bo Bichette, who has a full no-trade clause and a player opt out and who is finally showing signs of heating up.
hyphenkee
12:53
Now that we're a few years in, do you get the sense that teams highly value being in the hunt for the 3rd WC spot? Right now there are ~13 teams either in the WC or in the hunt. That's exciting, but do teams secretly care a little less than we think about squeaking into that last spot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
I think so because we tend to see a lot of wait-and-see behavior at the deadline from those teams — not the kind of trades that can be game-changers.
Charles Bengal Tiger
12:54
Is there a decent chance that Kevin Brown and/or Rick Reuschel eventually make the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
I wouldn't hold my breath. Brown's one-and-done BBWAA performance and appearance on the Mitchell Report list probably makes him a dead letter in any consideration for ballot space.  Reuschel doesn't have much "fame" attached and it's not like the Era Committee ballots are being stocked with stathead favorites.

The bottom line is that for as much coverage as we give regarding the injustices of one-and-done guys not getting a second look, we can still only point to one success story there, Ted Simmons.
Viva Montenegro
12:59
Didier Fuentes from Colombia, Hall of Fame Induction 2055. Book those tickets now!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
You heard it here first, folks! I hope I live to see that (I'd be 86 years old that year).
mike sixel
1:00
Royce Lewis for Luis Arraez, who says no? Also, super happy you get to go do a thing you love every year!
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