Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/28/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
Thanks! Right now I'm not sure teams are that keen on Lewis, who's been terrible this year except for June, hasn't hit for a 100 wRC+ since 2024, and still has never played more than 106 games in a season. The Giants would probably say no because they can do better in dealing Arraez.
MF Luder
1:02
With Tolle and Bennett (Early was also in this category) already surpassing their career highs in innings pitched, contrary to Red Sox fan logic, I'd like them to go get an overqualified innings-eating starter as a rental. Do you see that as likely?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
it's plausible but to these eyes, the Early trade suggests they already see Patrick Sandoval, who recently returned from TJ, as that guy
krob4385
1:03
Bocca Osteria in Cooperstown is a solid restaurant. Would go back for sure.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
I've never been but it looks decent.
jkgaucho
1:05
Trade value highlighted best values.  Who has the worst contract? Vlad Jr.? Boegarts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:06
Vladito, I'm afraid. It's the 2nd-largest in the game, it was given to a guy who has only intermittently played up to superstar status and who already has some physical concerns, and it runs through 2039, the year before time as we know it will cease to exist.
Phil
1:07
So, ignoring guys like Grich who are the committees' problem, do you think the election of Andruw Jones opens things up for even more of a defense-first guy via the BBWAA? I guess you've been pushing for that with catchers, but I'm imagining more of an ideal-aging-curve version of Rafaela. I guess Andrelton Simmons could have been an interesting test case with a longer career also.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:11
I just don't think there are that many likely defense-first candidates who can get that far. Even with the Gold Gloves, Jones was helped by hitting 400+ homers and being on a perennial playoff team. Rafaela hasn't produced anything eye-catching enough on offense to help his case along, and the Red Sox seem to be in a boom-and-bust cycle of contending
1:13
It's far more likely we see guys like Chase Utley, Nolan Arenado and maybe Matt Chapman if he proves to have the staying power follow in the footsteps of Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, and Todd Helton — guys whose lower counting stats are offset by significant defensive value and recognition. Jones fits into that group pretty well, too.
drewsylvania
1:13
Speaking of the Hall, Papelbon got snubbed, at least from additional consideration
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
it turns out trying to choke a superstar in your dugout is viewed as disqualifying for some.
krob4385
1:15
Do you think Keith Hernandez eventually gets into the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
I've never understood why he can't get Era Committee placement. he's not a one-and-done guy, he fits into the Walker/Helton/Rolen/Jones/Utley group, and he's got the long tail as a broadcaster which — if that was supposed to be something that pushed Kaat over the line (which seems dubious) — should only help his cause.
I would vote for Hernandez.
Mark Falzone
1:16
To MF Luder's point, I was wondering if Bello is that innings eater, with Sandoval now one of the 5 healthy starting pitchers
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
Bello seems to need an opener too often to make him a guy viewed as an innings-eater. His spot on the roster is tenuous given that he has options remaining and I wouldn't be surprised to see him dealt, with the Red Sox eating salary.
MF Luder
1:18
In the last two decades, has there been a more criminal non-trade than the Angels not moving Mike Trout?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:20
It's tough to think of another example that extreme but not being dealt is in accordance with his wishe, and the Angels — as poorly run a franchise as there's been in the past decade — hasn't pressed the matter any further.
cosmichero
1:22
Earlier in the season the Nats had the most runs scored but the underlying stuff had them more like the 5th best offense in the MLB. Instead of regressing, they've gone nuclear in july and now the underlying stuff also has them as the best in the MLB. I don't have a question, but this is just crazy to me that it's happening
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
Who knew that stockpiling young hitters would pay off? Whatever new hitting coach Matt Borgschulte and his staff are telling these guys, right now it seems to be working.
ED44
1:24
Short of a change in ownership, tell me there's hope in Cincinnati? Surprises me this ownership group/F.O. isn't getting more heat in public. Bring back #SellTheTeamBob!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:26
Feels like the one thing they've done well, which has kept them relevant in recent years, was to put together solid rotations, but this year's model has fallen part except for Abbott and Burns. Their farm system is currently 27th in the rankings. Things look grim
war2d2
1:27
If Trout was willing to be moved this week, what would that even look like? He’s got another 4 years at $37m after this one. Assuming the Angels are rational actors (big assumption) how would they handle it? Pay it down and try to get real prospects, or treat it as a pure money dump? If the latter, who even picks it up? NYY? Phils? Dodgers? They all have cash, but that seems like a lot to swallow for the decline years of a guy who, at this point, looks like a 4-WAR true-talent.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:29
4-WAR true talent is still going to wind up better than most players dealt at the upcoming deadline. The Phillies kinda seem like the only plausible destination for him, and the Angels would probably need to pay down his deal by at least 50% and maybe take on a smaller bad-money deal in order to get something legitimate back in terms of prospects or club-control players.
war2d2
1:30
MLBTR reporting that the Fish have taken Sandy off the table, so I guess he’s not moving unless they get blown away by the offer.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:31
Doesn't surprise me. He's been pretty good in every month but May, with ERAs of 3.35 or lower and FIPs of 4.33 or lower; it's May's 7+ ERA and 5+ FIP that's blowing up his overall numbers.
1:32
Ok folks, it's time for me to skedaddle. My Hall of Fame weekend thing will be live at 2 pm — look for it! Thanks for stopping by and if there's anything left of me the day after the trade deadline, I should be back here.
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