JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/8/22

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Jay Jaffe

2:47

I didn't see where he said that, but if he did, I'd guess we're basing our impressions on different areas. The Tigers rebuild has been a disaster so far; they've come up with a lot of young talent but have yet to convert it into any on-field success, and right now their two big contracts from last winter (Rodriguez and Báez) have turned out poorly

Bruce in 2023

2:48

You think Darick Hall can continue with the power and not hurt too much with the Avg?

Jay Jaffe

2:50

A week ago I'd never heard of the guy. We don't have a scouting report on him and I haven't seen one at the other major outlets, not that i've looked hard (he doesn't get a capsule in the 2022 BA Handbook or on MLB Pipeline, for exampl). So I'll go with "probably not"

Richard

2:51

Hi Jay. What are the chances for eventual HOF induction for Tommy John and Luis Tiant? And who gets in first?

Jay Jaffe

2:53

Low, particularly with the latest Era Committee changes (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fame-shakes-up-its-era-committ...). Maybe eventually TJ surgery puts John over the line but neither of those guys has gotten much traction in recent committees and if they're competing for votes with the likes of Dick Allen and a backlog of Negro Leagues players I think it's going to be hard to change that.

Smiling Politely

2:54

I remember using Mike Brito as a landmark at Dodger Stadium to give my friend directions to our seats because everyone could spot him with the hat and the radar gun. He was the Polaris of the park, and it's hard to think about it without him and Vin in it. Anyways -- Gavin Lux is quietly approaching a .300 avg/380 OBP. Do you think his power creeps up over time? I think of him as a guy whose development got interrupted by COVID and ppl forgot about.

Jay Jaffe

2:58

Maybe a bit, but I think that even with the strong grades (65 raw, 60 game from 2020) it's worth noting that he's only sustained his power numbers in hitter-friendly environments. The guy's 24 year old with a 122 wRC+ and the ability to play competent-or-better defense at multiple positions. That should be plenty.

TKDC

2:58

Has anyone done more to increase their hall of fame chances this year than Paul Goldschmidt? Arenado? JoRam?

Jay Jaffe

2:59

Good question, offhand I'd say Goldschmidt but this is something I'll probably look at more closely in the coming weeks

Mets Fan

3:00

Is Keith Hernandez a hall of famer? Seems like no one has ever played first base like he did, and that should count for something on its own

Jay Jaffe

3:01

From The Cooperstown Casebook (2017):

3:02

3:03

I think he's got a reasonable case despite the non-traditional offensive profile, but him being on the outside doesn't keep me lying awake at night the way the absence of, say, Dick Allen does

Astro

3:03

Thoughts:
Mets should surprise everyone by overwhelming Angels with a trade offer for Shohei + then go to a 6-man rotation the rest of 2022. He helps improve the rotation and DH instantly. The Mets can go 6-deep and it would give deGrom/Scherzer some extra rest ahead of October. If Mets cannot re-sign deGrom, they pivot and go all in on resigning Shohei.

Mets should trade JD Davis (plus maybe a lower ranked prospect) to Detroit for Robbie Grossman and Andrew Chafin to help with their lefty problems. Grossman should be cheap and is still doing damage against lefty pitchers this year. Chafin would be the Mets best lefty reliever and is a luxury for Detroit in a lost year.

Jay Jaffe

3:04

I think the Mets are a likely landing spot for Ohtani at some point (probably not August 2) but good lord the pissing and moaning from Scherzer about the Dodgers curbing his usage to be available in October is why he spurned them to sign with the Mets in the first place. Well, that and money.

WHIP appeal

3:04

Why are certain players missing from the leaderboard ranks? Off the top of my head, Ohtani and Spencer Strider are two, but I've seen more omissions.

Jay Jaffe

3:06

Under the Mininum Innings drop-down you'll need to make a selection for something besides "Qualified" because they both have fewer than one inning pitched per team game (Ohtani not by much)

RTJ

3:06

Who is the best SP to not make the hall of fame due to injuries, and will it be Jacob deGrom?

Jay Jaffe

3:10

deGrom (42.4 WAR/39.8 Peak Adj/41.1 S-JAWS) is about nine points behind Johan Santana (51.7/45.0/48.3) and both are well behind Wes Ferrell (60.1/47.5/57.3), who pitched just 2,623 innings, with fewer than 600 outside of a 10-year stretch.

BettsBellingerCaruso

3:10

Kimbrel: Will he perform to his 2.00 FIP level or do you think there's something off w/ him that just gets him unable to deal w/ a runner on base?

Jay Jaffe

3:12

He's got mechanical issues ("too rotational" is a term both Cubs and Dodgers coaches used) that he can't seem to shake and that seem to manifest themselves more when he's got men on base. I'd think he could clear them eventually but here we are.

Tony

3:12

At this point, if I set the over/under at 0.5 for the HOF chances of Kimbrel, Chapman, Jansen, which side are you taking?

Jay Jaffe

3:14

Under. Very rough year for Kimbrel and Chapman. Jansen was pitching pretty well until being sidelined by an irregular heartbeat again.

On hearing the news about Jansen a couple weeks ago it occurred to me that people forget Atlanta is 1,000 feet above sea level, which makes it one of the higher-altitude parks, and altitude can have an effect on arrhythmias. I wonder if that's been a factor.

Harmon Ripkowski

3:14

Hi. My thoughts, with all the questions you've gotten about Dave Stieb, is that no 20th century pitchers other than Clemens and Schilling will go into the Hall. At a guess, maybe John or Tiant, but I've little confidence

Jay Jaffe

3:16

Beyond the Big Insurrectionist Baby, I think the next 20th century hurler to go in may well be from the Negro Leagues. Redding? Donaldson? Maybe.

brony la russa

3:17

where do the chisox go from here? do they look at Atlanta last year and buy or do they trade at least expiring contracts and ‘reload’ tho not rebuild?

Jay Jaffe

3:18

I suspect they'll try to patch things up and get back in the race. They're too talented to be languishing like this and it's not like the AL Central is a powerhouse division.

All star game

3:18

Is this the year Kershaw finally gets to start the all star game? It would make up for the time they picked Harvey because it was in New York.

Jay Jaffe

3:21

Since I made the case for Shohei Othani to start for the AL, I had in mind a tangent on making the case for Kershaw for the NL but chose not to pursue it. To these eyes starting Kershaw — who's been really, really good when available — makes a lot of sense, but it's going to be tough for a manager to pick against Gonsolin, who's 11-0 with a 1.62 ERA AND pitches for the host team as well.

AnotherAnnoyingDodgerFan

3:22

What kind of starter (e.g. Ace, #2-3, 4-5) do you think Tony Gonsolin settles in as long-term?

Jay Jaffe

3:23

I don't think anybody really knows but 2 or 3 seems possible right now, particularly as he's going 6-7 innings routinely these days.

Ben

3:26

It looks like Ohtani and Alvarez could both end up being legitimate MVP candidates if they keep up what they are doing, especially if Judge cools off or misses time. I know Alvarez has played a good bit of LF and Ohtani has been even more valuable as a SP, but has there ever been a season with 2 incredibly valuable DHs?

Jay Jaffe

3:26

Using bWAR there have been just four seasons with two players who made at least 50% of their appearances as a DH and were worth 5.0 WAR or greater: https://stathead.com/tiny/BzGxn

3:27

All but Hafner Hall of Famers, wow.

Quarantino Martinez

3:27

I was encouraged by Gallo drawing some walks this week. Does that say more about my desperation or a potential (mild) turnaround for him?

Jay Jaffe

3:28

i wish i knew. I still think he can be an All-Star caliber player but he's really scuffling.

Chase

3:29

Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas good fits for the Dodgers? Another package for Juan Soto possible at the deadline?

Jay Jaffe

3:29

I don't think the Dodgers are going to go that big at the deadline. Definitely not big enough to land Soto

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