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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/8/22
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Phil
3:30
Did you read Justin Choi's piece on consistency? I found it quite interesting for thinking about Jackie Bradley, who is the streakiest hitter I've closely followed (and one of my favorite players, though not so much for hitting). Last time he was a free agent I was surpised at the offer he got. What kind of role do you think teams will imagine him in this time around? Will some team out there think of him as an everyday player? I'd rather he stay in Boston but that will obviously only happen for 4th OF money, if that.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
Yes, I liked Justin's piece (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/measuring-this-seasons-most-and-least-cons...). With a 57 wRC this year after last year's debacle, I don't see JBJ ever getting a major league deal north of $5 million again, and I wouldn't be surprised if his next contract is a minor league one.
Steve
3:31
Forgive me if you’ve answered this previously, but have you been able to incorporate enough Negro League data into JAWS to determine the most glaring omission or two?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
I have not included Negro Leagues data in JAWS, and right now it makes my head spin to think about the difficulty of doing so. I think it's great we have WAR for the select major Negro Leagues, and worth using for certain applications, but there's still a lot of obstacles to folding that into JAWS. I also think we have a pretty good idea of the top Negro Leagues candidates outside the Hall and not all of them have cases that are WAR-driven.
Guest
3:35
Gut feel, do you think the Pirates will produce a HOF level player who plays the majority of their career in Pittsburgh in your lifetime?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
(consulting actuarial tables)
no.
Scuffy mcgee
3:36
who is the most disappointing hitter in baseball right now and why is it Yoan Moncada
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
Moncada certainly eyeballs as one of the big disappointments, but the guy has already done two IL stints for oblique and hamstring so I think it's safe to assume that his struggles have something to do with those. I'm far more mystified by the ostensibly healthy Gallo, for example
Alby
3:40
Ohtani question: Traditionally prospects have been steered to either the mound or batter's box with the explanation that they need to focus on one or the other to max out at that skill. Is it even possible for Ohtani to be better than he is at either hitting or pitching if he just concentrated on one or the other?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:41
I imagine that if he gave up pitching that his offensive numbers would look more like last year's than this one's, probably with adequate-or-better outfield defense thrown in, but it's really difficult to imagine him getting much better than that. Mind-blowing.
Scuffy mcgee
3:43
Max muncy, clearly not healthy or sharp decline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:43
I have to think that the UCL he tore last October and didn't have surgery on is at least partly responsible for his struggles.
James
3:44
What is your explanation for the Astros being 2nd in wRC+ but 12th in runs/game? I know it probably isn't Dusty's fault but I like blaming his batting order.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:45
Some of it is sequencing and big holes in the lineup at catcher and 1B. Probably worth a closer look at some point.
Freshbasil
3:46
As an idiot (pirates fan) I'm coming around to the idea of trading Reynolds and maybe Bednar now.  With the obvious RP and OF needs of major contenders they'd have to receive an incredible return at this point.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:47
Both have a lot of club control years so I'd imagine they'd get strong returns but because neither is a star ,I don't think they're going to be game-changing returns
3:48
Ok folks, time for me to wrap up here. Thanks for stopping by!
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