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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/9/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
2:02
My piece on the Cubs' losing streak and pending teardown just went up a short time ago https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-losing-streak-portends-furthe...
2:03
And yesterday I wrote about the state of the Dodgers' rotation in the wake of Clayton Kershaw's trip to the IL and Trevor Bauer's administrative leave https://t.co/VP7Ty2CtNH
2:04
Anyway, the queue is filling so let's get to it. Before I do so, let me caution you that I have absolutely no opinions or knowledge pertaining to the draft. You're barking up the wrong tree here.
Fat Spielberg
2:04
Are you surprised by how few sticky stuff suspensions there have been?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
Maybe a little — i'd have guessed one or two guys a week would get nabbed, as a warning to the rest, but so far it's just Hector Santiago, and he's appealing the suspension.
Brad
2:05
Hi Jay - do you have a favorite SS from the prep ranks (Mayer, Lawlar, House, Watson) and who do you think fits the Tigers the best at 3?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
Alan Trammell.
Babip Roberts
2:06
Bryant to Mets makes a lot of sense for NY. Can they do it without moving Alvarez/Mauricio/Baty/Vientos/Armstrong?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:10
My guess based on the fact that Bryant would be a short-term rental is that you're not going to see anybody give up a top-50ish prospect, which describes Alvarez and Mauricio, but that you might see a guy in the lower part of a top 100 as a piece in the deal.
Guest
2:11
By BaseRuns, the Marlins have a better record than, among others, the Red Sox, Mets, and Athletics.  What went so wrong for Miami this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
Offense. Theirs is hitting for an 89 wRC+. They've certainly got some good pitching but they're not getting enough production from some positions
John B
2:14
Nelson Cruz makes it to 2000+ hits and 500 HRs does he start to have a case?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
not unless everybody forgets about his Biogenesis case and his low WAR
Vlad's Dad
2:15
Hi Jay, do you think the Blue Jays should shop Semien at the deadline? Obviously he has been an outstanding signing, but in the interest of maximizing their championship window (let's be honest, they aren't contenders in 2021) wouldn't trading him for future assets be the right move?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
They have a 41% chance at the playoffs, which is better odds than the Yankees. Dealing Semien might theoretically do more to extend their window but it would be the wrong move, in that it will almost certainly generate ill will among fans and players and a barbecuing from the media.
Appa Yip Yip
2:18
The NL central right now is a great argument for expanded playoffs. With the Cubs out and the NL West dominating the wild card spots the other four teams are just conceding the division to the Brewers. How is any of that fun for fans? Even Brewers fans have no real reason to get invested for the next few months because there's no race.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
Ugh, expanded playoffs, feh. Gah.

I don't think anybody but the Pirates have actually conceded anything in the Central, though obviously the Cubs are poised to sell. The Brewers have played better than expected, but that doesn't mean they won't come back to earth; they did start May with a 4-13 run, their success depends on the health of pitchers who — like the rest of the league — face a lot of questions about expanded workloads, and they're clearly not the 1998 Yankees.
Zach
2:24
Do you think the dodgers are reluctant at all to trade Keibert Ruiz at the deadline given how well he’s played at AAA?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
I think they're holding onto him for the right deal, and given the shape of their rotation right now, this might well be the time to trade him in a blockbuster.
Matt V
2:27
Rafael Devers is headed for his second 5+ WAR season before turning 25. Allowing for the fact that it's still pretty early in his career, what do you make of his HOF chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
he hasn't ruled himself out, and the apparent defensive improvement is good, but even if he adds another 3 WAR this year, he'd have 13.7 bWAR through age 24 because his other seasons have either been shortened or partial ones. That total barely cracks the top 30 among third basemen thru 24. I'm not saying he won't make it but he's going to need a lot of 5-win seasons to put himself on track.
Nelson
2:30
Why are runs scored after errors committed by pitchers unearned? If the pitcher is the one gifting the other team more outs, shouldn't it count against his ERA?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
unearned runs are a dumb and archaic concept but the original point of them was to try to separate fielding from pitching, and that's applicable to the guy on the mound, too.
david
2:31
what do you think it would cost the dodgers to get kyle gibson?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
Not Keibert Ruiz, whom I'd think if you're dealing you're getting somebody with more than 1 1/3 years of club control unless he's really elite. Most of their top prospects are lower-level guys, and I'm out of my element in trying to parse them on the fly.
Vlad's Dad
2:34
Hi Jay, Shohei is obviously doing things we haven't seen before but does he realistically have a path to the HOF? He's not particularly young and lost a couple key years to injury, but what does his remaining career need to look like to be Hall worthy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
I guarantee you that if he can get to 10 years of hitting and pitching at some high level (not nec. this high) he's going in, regardless of where his career totals end up. It's just that remarkable.
Guest
2:36
What's (still) going on with Lindor? Each time it seems he's turning a corner, he goes back into a slump. He's been hitting with such little power. Is this like a J-Ram thing where he just stopped hitting for a while (40 games 2018 80 games 2019, ~.620 OPS) but then came back to hit like his usual self? I feel like I keep defending Lindor to my fam and friends saying he's gonna get hot, but it just ain't happening yet...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
One thing that stood out to me when I did my piece on Yasmani Grandal's injury (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/add-yasmani-grandal-to-the-roll-of-injured...) is that Lindor has the majors' second-worst wRC+ among lefty batters against infield shifts, -14 (.149/.146/.170). I think that's a combination of mechanics and mindset, which I feel like is about what we heard when the Mets fired Chili Davis and company a couple months back.
Mets Fan
2:40
Hi Jay, do you think that the Dodgers will be forced to make a move for a pitcher, giving thier rotation and its breakdown?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
See upthread. Yes, I think they need to make a move for a starter, but they'll gain more clarity as to how big they need to go once they get Kershaw's MRI and see where the Bauer investigation is headed (I'd expect a substantial suspension).
mike sixel
2:42
just want to say thanks for all the great content.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
You're welcome! It's a privilege to write for a smart and engaged readership, and I'm lucky I get to do this.
Guest
2:42
Does Kris Bryant really add that much to the Mets? To my mind, if they're giving up anything decent prospect-wise, it should be for pitching. Assuming the rash of injuries is behind them, they have guys who are proven and capable, if not great, to play 3B & CF; but they're sending guys like Robert Stock out to pitch every fifth day, hoping that Carrasco can come back in August..
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
you lost me at "Assuming the rash of injuries is behind them." They're getting dreadful offensive contributions from Conforto and McNeil as well as Lindor, so Bryant would help — likewise, the fact that he's a good defender (though the silver lining to the Mets' injuries for Davis and Nimmo has been improved defense). It's not that the Mets don't need pitching, too — they do, so treating this as either/or is a mistake.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:48
Sorry if this isn't exactly your lane, but I noticed that the updated prospect board has Ryan Pepiot listed as a MIRP instead of a SP. What's the reliever risk there? He's been thoroughly dominating AA this year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
ooh i think i can actually sort of field this one as I grazed by Pepiot in my Dodgers piece. From what I gather, the major concerns about him are his command and whether he can hold his new-found velocity over the course of a longer season/bigger workload. The command, which Eric graded at 35/45, does seem to have improved somewhat. As for the velo, wait and see, as he's only got 41.2 innings under his belt.
John Olerud’s Helmet
2:52
Your Grace Lord Jay! All hail thee!! What’s your take on Mr Cohen starting up an annual Bobby Bonilla day event? I think it’s great we finally have a Mets owner willing to embrace the former players and do fun things for the fans!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
I like the idea. It's a good way to have a little fun with a weird little quirk of the team's history without casting aspersions on Bonilla, who seems to be on board with it. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31744695/new-york-mets-new-steven-...
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