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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/9/21
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Tacoby Bellsbury
2:57
With the removal of the super-sticky stuff, does this mean we have a better chance to see a knuckleballer stick in the show going forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
I would hope so, but it takes years to develop into a good knuckleballer, and the last two who have shown up in MLB haven't lasted for more than a few days (Ryan Feierabend and Mickey Jannis) because they just weren't anywhere close to good enough.
FannyGraphy
2:58
could MLB eliminate the need for sticky stuff if they just raised the seam height on the balls so the pitcher could get a better grip?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
if it were that simple, I'd think they would try it, but it's never that simple because of the way it would affect the ball's drag and other characteristics.
3:01
speaking of the ball, The Athletic's Lindsey Adler, Britt Ghiroli and Eno Sarris had a good piece on this topic earlier this week https://t.co/u1jk8bzXw7
jimd
3:01
sticky stuff - I've heard the 70% of SP's (maybe all P's) dropped in spin rate. Is there a list? Are there conclusions that can be drawn either about individuals or the overall impact?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
The Solak Train
3:04
Heya Jay and thanks for the chat.  The Rangers are a terrible baseball team, but they have intriguing arms in Allard, Dunning (though I'm wondering if he's really all that intriguing anymore), and of course Gibson, with a few prospects in AA getting close.  What do you think the 'right deal' for Gibson and/or Kennedy might be?  Any way they could be packaged for a really nice prospect+ or are we looking at a bag of baseballs and a rosin bag for either/or?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
I think Gibson will bring back a solid return if they choose to deal because he's signed for so cheap next year ($7M). Again, probably not a top-50 guy but maybe a couple top-100ish types. Kennedy probably gets you a flyer on a couple of lower level, non-100 prospects.
Guest
3:08
Feels dicey to say "Bryant would help", as if that's assured. He's coming off a month when he put up a .445 OPS- so he's just as capable of struggling as Lindor, Conforto, & McNeil are capable of getting hot. My point was sooner that, if limited prospect capital allows only 1 big move, shouldn't pitching be the priority?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
Nothing in life is assured, and I'd guess that the Mets are as aware of that as anyone else.
Farhandrew Zaidman
3:09
Correa and Altuve skipping the All Star game...story or not a story?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
Seems to be to be a bit of a story because it looks a lot like two participants in the Astros' 2016-19 sign-stealing shenanigans who are unwilling to face their peers.
3:11
Which isn't to say that they along with everybody else couldn't use the 4-day breather.
Michael
3:12
With his run from 2010-2016, how many more years of that performance would Jose Bautista have needed to have a HOF case?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
probably something like 5. His 2016 itself wasn't much good (1.2 WAR), and he's the rare player with a higher JAWS than career WAR (36.7/38.2/37.5) but he averaged 5.9 WAR from 2010-15. Add another 25 WAR and he'd at least get a long look.
No longer 2016
3:15
Could the Cubs get a top-50 prospect for Kimbrel if they threw in some money to sweeten the deal? He’s under team control for another year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
I think so.
Evan
3:16
What is the outlook for Longoria? He was scorching the ball before he ran into Crawford.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
From the good folks at Rotowire:

July 3, 2021
Longoria (shoulder) could return from the injured list around the third week of July, Kerry Crowley of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
ANALYSIS
Longoria has been participating in baseball activities for just over a week, and he could return the Giants shortly after the All-Star break. The third baseman has been on the injured list since June 6, so he could require a rehab assignment before he's cleared to return.
Bruno
3:16
Do you think the Yankees will make a play on Baez? Should they?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
For as much a disappointment as Torres is, I don't think Baez's bat is enough of a certainty that he'd be the Yankees top choice if they pursue a replacement, and I think they'd eye increased production in the outfield before they'd worry about the middle infield (and like everybody else they need pitching).
Guest
3:19
If Jed executes this perfectly (ie trades everything not bolted down), how big of a leap can the Cubs farm system take in the next year?  They're generally ranked between 20-35 right now, can they be top 10 by midseason next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
Being anywhere from 31-35 in farm system ranking would be quite impressive in its own way, no?
3:22
I would think they could come out of this with a top-10 system if they dealt as well as, say, the Yankees did with their 2016 teardown, which brought in Gleyber and Frazier and pieces that helped them get Britton and Paxton down the line.
But i'm not the prospect guy, so go ask Eric or Kevin.
Guest
3:24
"Nothing in life is assured, and I'd guess that the Mets are as aware of that as anyone else."- a good first half from Lindor was not assured; a good half from former All-Stars Conforto and McNeil was not assured. But, history and statistics suggest Lindor, McNeil, Conforto, and Dom Smith will improve to a certain extent. Nothing, to me, suggests that any of Corey Oswalt, Robert Stock, or Nick Tropeano will step up to fill the SP void in the second, so if I'm the Mets I don't even think about Bryant until I have the pitching situation improved.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
that's a fair assessment of their pitching reserve, but I think the mistake in logic is to position this as an either/or dichotomy. They'll make moves to shore up the pitching and the offense, and if they don't have the prospect reserves to get both done at a high level, they may have to touch major league talent to do so (an outgoing infielder in this case).
Evan
3:28
Moncada has been a disappointment this year. What has happened to his power? Playing through Injury? Any realistic chance for 2nd half rebound?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
He's hitting the ball on the ground more than any point since his rookie season, and there aren't a lot of homers there. As to whether that's because of his approach or something physical or mechanical, offhand I don't know.
Emperor Felix
3:30
Do you envision the Mariners being closer to buyers or sellers at the deadline...or possibly both?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
It's Jerry DiPoto, man. They're going to be buying and selling so much your head will spin. Probably.
Toshi
3:32
Do you think the Mariners should and will exercise Kikuchi's unusual option after this season? Thanks.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
My hunch is that they do it, because he's really improved this year and $66 million over 4 years isn't going to prevent them from doing other things.
Sloan
3:33
So is it just a certainty at this point that Yadier Molina gets into the Hall of Fame? Relatedly do you feel like the HOF voting pool is getting smarter or just changing? Its depressing to see compiler + narrative candidates like Vizquel and soon to be Molina gaining, while never being one of the ... oh... 20 best players in the game for a single season
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
I think it's a likelihood that Molina gets into the Hall because he's aged reasonably well, but I wouldn't call him merely a compiler in the same way that Vizquel was. The defensive metrics never made a case for Vizquel to be as good as some people believe he was, but the framing metrics show that Molina had a couple of 7+ win seasons and over a 5-year span from 2009-13 was the game's 2nd-most valuable position player https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y...
3:40
I do think the BBWAA voting pool is a smarter one than it once was, because I'm now a voter! But seriously, beyond the fact that we can always quibble about relievers, I don't see any Jim Rice-level clinkers happening, and we've seen voters move beyond triple crown stats to embrace WAR and JAWS and defensive metrics to at least some extent.
3:41
On that note, it's time for me to pack up for the day. Thanks for stopping by, and enjoy the All-Star festivities!
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