Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/11/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks!
12:02
Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chats. In less than 24 hours, I'll be en route to Salt Lake City with my family as we gather to celebrate my father's 85th birthday.
12:03
I've got a piece on Dalton Rushing's UCL tear, his various controversies, and the state of the Dodgers' catching depth chart in the pipeline. Yesterday, i wrote about Max Scherzer cracking the all-time top 10 in strikeouts as well as feats by Gerrit Cole and Jacob Misiorowski, with JAWS and ZiPS odds updates on both Cole and Saturday's opposite number, Chris Sale https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-headlines-a-big-weekend-for-s...
12:04
On Friday I looked at some precedents to the Adley Rutschman trade, where contenders brought in a new backstop via a midseason deal https://blogs.fangraphs.com/catching-lightning-in-a-bottle-a-history-o...
12:05
And that's where we are.
drplantwrench
12:05
which trade at the deadline do you think is most likely to be brought up in 5-10 years as That One Trade where it backfired and the prospect substantially overshadows the main piece?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
I'm probably not the best FG writer to ask about this but I'll go with one from a deal that I wrote up: Alexander Frias, an 18-year-old 50-FV outfielder who was traded to the Cardinals in the deal that sent Dustin May and Jojo Romer to the Brewers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brewers-tap-their-farm-system-to-add-d...
Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski had recently described Frias as “a freak with crazy bat speed and physical projection, the guy on the list with the best shot to have a Junior Caminero type of rise.”
12:09
I also wonder about Jefferson Rojas, a 21-year-old shortstop dealt to the Mets in the Clay Holmes trade https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cubs-pitching-staff-is-no-longer-held-.... Perhaps it will balance the cosmic scale as it pertains to the 2021 Pete Crow-Armstrong/Javier Báez deal?
12:10
Don't miss Eric and Brendan's ranking of all the prospects traded at the deadline https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-mlb-prospects-traded-at-the-20...
souldougie
12:10
Do you have a favorite memory from your childhood of playing Little League/youth sports?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
I only played one season (my age-12 season) because I played rec soccer with all of my friends during my elementary school years. In our league championship game, I came up with the bases loaded in the 3rd or 4th inning and stroked a solid single up the middle, tying the game in a rally where we took the lead for good. I was replaced after that at-bat, and cried a little because it was over for me, but I'll forever remember myself as coming through in the clutch.
Phillip Denny
12:14
Feels like the induction of Scott Rolen has opened the floodgates for the big 3 3B of the current era (JRam, Manny, Arenado) and potentially even Evan Longoria? Or does the David Wright of it all draw a line there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
I'd argue that the floodgates began opening in 2018 with the induction of Chipper Jones. Prior to his induction, there were just 13 third basemen in the Hall, but after Jones came Edgar Martinez in 2019, Rolen in 2023, Adrian Beltré in 2024, and Dick Allen in 2025, running the total to 18.

You could actually argue the floodgates opened earlier. At the point when I began covering HOF elections in 2002, just 8 were in the Hall. Paul Molitor was part of the first class after I invented the metric that would become JAWS in 2004, then Wade Boggs (2005), Ron Santo (2011), and Deacon White (2013) preceded Chipper.
12:20
I don't see Longoria or Wright getting in anytime soon, but I do think José Ramírez, Manny Machado, and Nolan Arenado will make it. I see Machado has restored his lead among those three after Ramírez overtook the other two earlier this season.
hayz11
12:20
Do you see any path for Logan Webb to have any real HOF chances? He's 29 with 24 bWAR, and churns out 4 WAR seasons in his sleep. He lacks the real superstar peak, but if he continues to compile like this for a while, he's could end up with some career totals that are better than you'd expect
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
Don't forget Webb was suspended for PEDs in 2019, when he was a prospect https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26647406/giants-pitching-prospect-...
12:23
Webb may prove to have excellent staying power, but until one voting body or another elects somebody suspended for PEDs or at least appearing in the Mitchell Report, I'm not going to get optimistic about the ice being broken for Webb.
JoeG414
12:23
Congrats!   Do you think its "safe" to drop T.Scott (after last night) in a Saves only roto ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
I don't generally weigh in on fantasy questions, but Díaz has been shaky enough, and Scott impressive enough, that the possibility of a matchup-based co-closer possibility looms. You might at least want to give it a few more days to see if Díaz, who closed out last night's game without a hitch, continues to gain momentum.
krob4385
12:25
Do you think Beltran takes the reins in Queens next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
I think it's more likely than not that he's the next Mets manager. The team hasn't played well enough under Andy Green (19-20) to keep his hat in the ring (not that he expected to remain at the helm), and who knows what the other options are. Beltán, as a current special assistant, would appear to have the inside track if he wants the job
Phil
12:27
James Tibbs, previously traded for May, looks good as well. May might end up a multitime bad-trade champion. (Yes, embittered Red Sox fan here.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
In their pre-deadline Top 100 Prospects update, the Dodgers placed four outfielders on the list, and somehow Tibbs wasn't one of them despite what's now a .295/.417/.543 (143 wRC+) line at OkC. Eric and Brendan have him as just a 45-FV guy out of concern for his comparatively modest power, but we'll see.
Phillip Denny
12:31
Nolan McLean having negative run value on breaking balls breaks my brain a little bit. Like I know RV isn’t sticky year over year, and so he could have the best breakers in the league in 2027, but the eye test (and stuff models) tell me that they’re so nasty.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
I wouldn't get too wrapped up in individual pitch run values as the final word. PitchingBot loves McLean's curve and slider (sweeper, according to Statcast), and Stuff+ loves the curve. it's really all about how those pitches fit into an arsenal, complementing each other by creating deception and keeping hitters off balance.
12:36
I'll note that batters are slugging .550 against McLean's sweeper despite averaging just 80.6 mph in  exit velocity (.370 xSLG), while they're hitting .108 and slugging .145 against the curve. I'd chalk up any negative RV values as rather coincidental
hibbert
12:36
Despite recent theatrics in Boston, the Rays have their largest AL East lead of the season.  Looking to the playoffs, can their shallow lineup and weak bullpen hold up?  It's a weird roster and kind of runs against their historical type.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
Man, I dunno. they'e always harder to evaluate because they seem to have so many moving parts. I am interested to see if they can fix Freddy Peralta and go into the postseason with a strong rotation.
dgriff
12:39
Seems like a significant overpay by the Red Sox for Rutschman compared to what the Yankees gave up for Garcia and Ramos.  Agree or no?  Which team, buyer or seller, do you think got the best bang for the buck at the deadline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
I think the general consensus is that the Red Sox overpaid, but catcher was a clear need for them and they filled it with arguably the best position player dealt at the deadline and a guy whom they control for another year (my guess is they hammer out a juicy extension with him, but we'll see). The Yankees did fine in getting Ramos and Garcia but neither is an ideal fit for the roster, and Brian Cashman did nothing about their terrible catching situation or their bullpen, at least besides appeasing the boo birds understandably tired of Doval and Jake Bird, two of last year's deadline additions
sprechs
12:42
Reading Kevin Baker's excellent "The New York Game," and in it Carl Mays is referenced as feeling that he is only not in the hall because of what happened to Ray Chapman. Thoughts on him? He's 109th per JAWS so seems like it is more lack of performance than ill-repute that has kept him out...
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
There are contemporary pitchers with comparable or worse stats and accomplishments than Mays' in the Hall, so it isn't entirely performance-based, but not only does he have the notoriety of having thrown the pitch that killed Chapman but he's generally regarded as one of the most disliked players of his time. From his SABR bio:
12:46
That's from https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/Carl-Mays/ by Allan Wood.
12:47
I can think of at least a dozen pitchers I'd put in the Hall before him, and that's not counting those from the major Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball such as Dick Redding and John Donaldson
hayz11
12:47
Esmerlyn Valdez over the past 9 games is 1/25 with 17 Ks. Somehow in that time, his OBP has gone from .371 to... .371 because he's also walked 13 times. Not really a question, just a very unusual stat line I wanted to point out!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
Wow, that is bizarre
Philip Christy
12:48
Would a salary cap actually help teams like the Brewers? They're not all of a sudden going to sign a Tucker or a Yamamoto if the Dodgers aren't able to. A salary cap just makes the top teams less competitive - and teams not trying as hard as they can to win is a bigger issue with the league.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
to borrow a quote from friend Craig Calcaterra, the main function of salary caps is to "save 30 of America's biggest assholes some money."
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