Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/11/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
A big chunk of the money from competitive balance tax violations helps to subsidize revenue-sharing receivers such as the Brewers. Take that away and the money has to be made up somewhere. The big thing at stake in the upcoming CBA negotiations is how to more equitably share local broadcasting revenues. The idea is for a team like the Brewers to come out a head in that, but whether the two sides can come up with a mechanism that satisfies the players remains to be seen — color me extremely skeptical it will wind up as a salary cap because the MLBPA is as dead-set against that as I am against eating American cheese.
Phillip Denny
12:54
What are your preferred expansion cities? Nashville seems like a given, so another out west seems appropriate. SLC? Portland?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
Even while knowing that the supposed financial benefits of expansion teams help drive local economies, I'm at least somewhat hopeful Salt Lake City gets a team, though my parents (85 and 84) may not be around long enough to see that come to pass. The region does make a ton of sense in terms of a ready ownership group, favorable demographics, and taxpayers' willingness to fund a private ballpark, as opposed to, say, Portland, Oregon where there's a lot more entrenched opposition.
12:58
Wrote about all this in 2023, and of course events make some if it out of date but you can get an idea https://blogs.fangraphs.com/salt-lake-citys-bid-for-a-major-league-exp...
12:59
I do think SLC does have the inside track on Portland for a western-half addition. Nashville seems to have more momentum than Charlotte or Raleigh or wherever in North Carolina is vying for a team. I don't think there's a strong enough ownership group or a will to build a ballpark in Montreal, for as much aesthetic and historic sense as that would make.
sprechs
12:59
Thank you - Baker does argue that Cannonball Dick should be in the hall, as well as Spottswood Poles...
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
I'd like to read that book at some point. heard nothing but good things about it.
war2d2
1:00
Jay! I wish I had your Little League experience. I made the final out in the last playoff game I played in. My only LL highlights were being the only kid to hit homers over the deep wall in center in BP, and throwing two kids out at home from RF. My kid has had more highlights than I did (made a couple all-star teams, had a >75% gun-down rate as a catcher), but he also made the last out of the last playoff game. That’s my boy.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
Oh wow, that's a weird coincidence regarding the final out, but hopefully your own experience helped him put it in perspective.

My daughter played t-ball and briefly coach-pitch from ages 4-6 (spring-fall-spring-fall-spring) and it was adorable. I was proud she knew the proper direction to run around the bases, and could absorb a basic checklist when stepping up to hit (feet in a straight line to the pitcher, right hand on top of left, eyes on the ball, etc.)
JU Jazz Hands
1:04
Oops again. I see quality of contact numbers referenced a lot. But have never seen anything about their predictability.  That seems important
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
Those who have studied it such as Baseball Prospectus' Russell Carleton tell us that 40 batted balls is where exit velocity starts to stabilize for hitters, with barrel rates around 50 and hard-hit rates maybe a bit more. I don't recall what the numbers are for pitchers, though
bohs and os
1:07
Have you ever seen anything like the falloff Gunnar Henderson has experienced this year? He's almost unplayable.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
Henderson's 90 wRC+ and solid defense has still been good enough to be worth 2.0 WAR. His 30-point drop in wRC+ from last year is less than one-third that of Cal Raleigh (91 points, from 161 to 70). That dude has been borderline unplayable. Henderson barely cracks the top 30 in year-over-year wRC+ decline https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/season-stat-grid?position=B&seasonSt...
1:11
George Springer, Aaron Judge, Corey Seager, Jarren Duran, the recently-released Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuña Jr.... those are just some of the guys with bigger offensive fall-offs.
feddy
1:12
This will sound like a joke, but is there a rule saying you have to have a catcher/a player in the catcher’s box? I was thinking the other day that there are scenarios where a team would benefit from having an extra fielder on the field without paying a heavy price by vacating the area behind the plate. Been too scared to say this to anyone in person because it sounds too insane
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
Yeah, I'm no rules expert but Rule 5.02(a) mandates having the catcher behind the plate:

"The catcher shall station himself directly back of the plate. He may leave his position at any time to catch a pitch or make a play except that when the batter is being given an intentional base on balls, the catcher must stand with both feet within the lines of the catcher’s box until the ball leaves the pitcher’s hand."
mike sixel
1:14
Portland does not have enough big companies to buy the suites. It's isn't happening. I worry about the dry up of the great salt lake and the ability of anyone to breathe there in fifteen years...
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
You and me both on the Great Salt Lake, a scary proposition I noted in that 2023 piece
Phillip Denny
1:14
You think we'll ever see x-stats start to incorporate spray angle into the formula in addition to launch angle and exit velo? I'm sure the tech to do so exists by now.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
As I always say with regards to Hall of Fame stuff, never is a long time, so I think at some point spray angle — a more precise version than pull-center-oppo — will make its way into the public domain and allow for more refined expected stats. But it ain't happening today.
OK folks, I have a very long to-do list before i travel so i'm going to cut this off a bit earlier than usual. The piece on Dalton Rushing and the Dodgers' catching situation is here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dalton-rushings-ucl-tear-catches-the-dodge...
Thanks so much for stopping by. See you again soon!
1:17
ooh one more addendum:
hibbert
1:17
Re: Catcher positioning, when I coached a high school softball team I tried to move my right fielder behind the catcher when the winning run was on third in extra innings.  There's a rule against that, too!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
Good to know!
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