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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/12/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Howdy folks and welcome to the West Coast edition of my Friday chat. I'm in San Diego for some family stuff, putting in a full week of work followed by a week of mostly vacation. I went to Wednesday's Padres game and wrote about Manny Machado's rebound (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-a-revamped-padres-lineup-manny-machado-...) amid the revamped lineup
2:02
Today I wrote about Justin Verlander's comeback from Tommy John surgery. We haven't seen a starting pitcher anywhere near this age (39) return from TJ and pitch well https://t.co/1TZOJFtWLD
Word of warning as we do the chat: the wifi in my airbnb is brutal, and if it bogs down this could be shorter than usual but we'll do what we can
and now, on with the show
EuroBall
2:03
What are the Yankees waiting for to call up Peraza?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:04
2:06
the short version boils down to this:

@YankeesWFAN

Oswald Peraza is a very good prospect, has 2 very good months in a row, but comparing his entire season at AAA to IKF's w/ NYY: IKF batting .268, Peraza .258. Peraza has a lot more power (IKF has 0 HR), but isn't dominating AAA so much that he has to be promoted right now 4/8

and the fact that the Yankees have bigger problems (pitching) and would generally be reluctant to put pressure on a prospect in midseason like this.
you don't have to buy that — the Yankees org is hardly beyond criticism — but Sweeney has the connections to convey their thinking
MilwaukeeBeerJays
2:06
Jay, I feel like you have strong opinions on mustaches. Who wore it better: Tom Selleck or Sam Elliott?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
Wow, that's a tough call. It's like asking if Babe Ruth or Ted Williams was the better hitter
2:08
I think Elliot's big mustache is the harder one to pull off, and less translatable, while Selleck's is a very efficient and accessible one
CT
2:08
I may be a little tardy on this, but re-read your article on Vin a few days ago and just wanted to applaud the entire thing. I'm a bit younger than you, but grew up in LA watching Vin and he was the soundtrack to my childhood, the voice that taught me to love baseball, and like a lot of folks, felt like I lost a close family member when he passed. No question here, just wanted to thank you for sharing your own memories and what Vin meant to you -- that was an outstanding splicing of his professional triumphs with your personal ones, one of the best and most thoughtful odes I've read. Keep up the excellent work. And have a pleasant Friday, wherever you may be
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
Thank you for the kind words. I'm glad the piece resonated with so many people – it's one of my favorite pieces I've ever written, in both versions
diadem
2:10
Is it time to give up on Manea?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
give up on in what sense? He might not be a great option for fantasy right now but after trading Gore i don't get the sense the Padres are going to move him out of the rotation for, say, Ryan Weathers or Reiss Knehr, who have been putting up Boeing-like ERAs and FIPs in Triple A
2:13
Nick Martinez would probably be more likely, moving back from the bullpen, but his 4:30 ERA/5.17 FIP as a starter means he's not a slam dunk to improve upon Manaea
Aj
2:15
Sorry to be a pain about this Jay, but I noticed on your July 19 article on who is making Cooperstown progress that you said that Manny Machado had his lowest peak season as 3.6 WAR in 2018. I think that only accounts for his Oriole WAR because he also had 2.5 WAR with the Dodgers this year. Sorry for bringing it up now; I'm just a huge HOF nerd but don't often make your chats in time because of school.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
You're correct, good catch. His lowest peak season is actually 3.8 bWAR in in 2017. He's now into peak season territory this year (4.3) and has already gained 0.3 JAWS in the past few weeks
2:18
Third Base (25th):
49.5career WAR |40.07yr-peak WAR |44.8JAWS |5.7WAR/162
  Average HOF 3B (out of 15):
    68.4 career WAR | 43.0 7yr-peak WAR | 55.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162
James
2:18
What does Verlander's next contract look like? 2 years/$75 million with a vesting option for a third year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
His player option for $25 million just kicked in as he reached the 130-inning mark; before that he had 2/$66M plus some incentives. I'd guess 2/$70M with a similar incentive structure but maybe he does a bit better than that
bosoxforlife
2:25
Was the Red Sox asking price to high for the rapidly declining J.D. Martinez or did all the teams recognize that there isn't much left there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
woof, having some laptop tech difficulties, plz stand by
2:28
Good question. I don't know exactly what is going on with him but .276/.342/.440 (118 wRC+) for a DH doesn't look like it's gonna generate a blockbuster, and it's not like Martinez's Statcast metrics say he's doing doing that much better (.484 xSLG). I don't think i heard what the Sox were asking for, though, but my guess is that buyers found it too high.
Ke'Bryan Hayes
2:29
I've had a bit of an "eh" season. Only 1 year removed from last season's wrist issue? Swing angle adjustment needed?

Am I a premium "buy low" in dynasty leagues or should those rostering me trade me, highlighting my "potential"?

Go, Bucs!

Ke'Bryan
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
Hayes is having a 94 wRC+ season but with strong enough defense to take him to 2.7 WAR. He's still hitting the ball on the ground a ton, and I don't know how urgently the Pirates are going to address that; so long as he can pick it he's going to be worth the money, though his 91.7 mph average exit velo indicates there's still a lot of upside for his offense. See Ben Clemens in our Trade Value series https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-trade-value-11-to-20/

If you're playing some kind of fantasy game based entirely on offense, i imagine that he doesn't help you much now. If you're asking me fantasy questions, I imagine I don't help you much now either
Aj
2:34
Hey Jay, I've always held the belief that the greatest fielder at each position should be near locks for the HOF if they were around even average at other aspects, regardless of position. This logic is why I support Keith Hernandez as arguably the biggest HOF snub and even supported Kaat and Jones (especially given his additional offensive strengths). Do you think this is an unreasonable stance?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
Pitcher fielding is ridiculously overrated; it's not that it's unimportant but its value is already baked into a pitcher's run prevention numbers and I don't see a special need to reward it.

Best Fielder Ever at the position is a neat hook for a Hall candidacy but of course defensive metrics can differ and Gold Glove counts aren't the most reliable indicator either. Ozzie Smith is in Cooperstown because he was an elite fielder with passable offense, while Mark Belanger, who IIRC has slightly more defensive value via B-Ref, is outside because he couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. I don' think that's wrong.

Hernandez has a decent HOF case, but the nontraditional offensive profile combined with a mid-30s retirement dooms his counting stats and I think he's a tougher sell to many committee voters. I'd vote for him but his is not a hill i've chosen to die on when it comes to my evaluations
The Batman
2:39
The Mariners are 7-12 against the Astros and 54-40 against everyone else. I'd say it's just how it's worked out, but the Astros always crush them. Obviously the Astros are quite good, and the Mariners have - save for these past two years - not been. But do you think there's validity to the idea that certain teams own others? The Dodgers owning the Padres come to mind as well.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
some teams match up very well with others and some... don't. In 19 games a season there's a wide range of outcomes possible; 17-2 over the last 19 for Padres-Dodgers seems pretty unlikely but 12-7 is much less so. We've seen that regular season series records aren't terribly predictive of postseason series, but we've also got a lot of data that says the Astros are the better team — maybe not ~100 points worth of winning percentage better, but probably 50 or more, and thus a 12-7 tilt shouldn't surprise us
Guest
2:41
Would Jeter be a first ballot HOF on any other team? I know he would have made it in, but it might have a been a longer stretch if he spent his whole career with, say, the Reds.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
the dude has 3,465 career hits and a clean reputation. There's no team he could have played for where that wouldn't have been a first-ballot HOFer
Ryan
2:42
How was your experience at the game on Wednesday? Where does Petco rank on the list of MLB stadiums you have visited?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
I've now been to Petco 3 times, 2 as spectator and 1 as press. It's a great ballpark. My only complaint is that the concession prices are NY-like, though the quality is SO MUCH BETTER that it's tough to complain
2:45
it might be my favorite ballpark, with the caveat that I've only been to ~22-24 (i forget my count) and that there are some well-regarded ones like PNC that I've never been to
Zach
2:46
Fangraphs currently has the Dodgers finishing with 108 wins. Are you taking the over/under on that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
that projection for 108 wins requires them to play .590 the rest of the way; I think they can top that by a little bit so i'll take the over.
JK
2:47
can you please help me understand the significance of fb/hr rate?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
it's faded from view a bit now that we have Statcast data but the idea is that a pitcher's HR/FB rate might be way out of whack relative to the league average and that you can get a truer estimate of his talent by plugging in a league-average rate in place of his homer rate — that's what xFIP is.
you can read more about it here https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/xfip/
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