JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/12/22

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Guest

2:50

Fangraphs ranked Alex Kiriloff very high and he’s underperforming. Are his injuries to blame or is he in any way similar to other OF prospects who’ve failed to reach expectations like Adell/Kelenic?

Jay Jaffe

2:51

He's had an endless series of problems with his right wrist this year so I think that's a lot of it, but also his approach is a mess and needs to tighten up.

bosoxforlife

2:53

The Braves just added Strider, Harris and it looks like Grissom has what it takes as well. I can't remember a team adding 3 potentially high end impact players in such a short time and as long as mustaches has come up Strider's is solid.

Jay Jaffe

2:55

Harris and Strider have been great for the Braves. Maybe Grissom will be great as well but Eric has him as a 45 FV prospect, and he has one (1) major league game under his belt plus 22 at Double-A and none at Triple-A so ... I'd urge a bit of caution just based on that. Maybe he turns out to be significant help, but don't be surprised if there are some growing pains.

Service Time Impingement Syndrome

2:55

Who's a more productive player next year: Matt Carpenter or Miguel Sano?

Jay Jaffe

2:56

Carpenter, who seems very likely to be retained by the Yankees. I've yet to see anything that says Sanó can make the necessary adjustments to be more than a 1-WAR player

Bobby

2:56

When deGrom opts out...what do you think he'll get in Free Agency? $45 million per year for 4 or 5 years?

Jay Jaffe

2:59

I think there will be more caution than that due to his injury history. Wouldn't surprise me if he gets the equivalent of a Scherzer deal (3/$130M) plus some lower valuations tacked on to bring down the AAV. 4/$150, 5/$170M? Maybe something like that

John

3:00

Jay, what are your favorite baseball museums besides the two great ones in Cooperstown and Kansas City?

Jay Jaffe

3:02

I think the only baseball museum I've been to besides the HOF is the Yogi Berra Musuem, where i've been lucky enough to do events with Baseball Prospectus and for my book. I've still never been to the Negro Leagues one (hopeful next year). Planning to go to the new Jackie Robinson Museum in NY before that.

Sammy

3:04

Are we going to see Triston Casas this year? That ankle injury seems to have given Bloom a legitimate excuse to wait until the 1/3 portion of next season.

Jay Jaffe

3:05

My guess is that if he's healthy, he's up soon (end of the month? how is it really mid-August already?) so that the Sox can get an idea of how he fits for next year. Alex Speier wrote about him today https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/08/11/sports/triston-casas-worked-his...

Generational Talent

3:06

Variation on a popular Fangraphs thought experiment. Put Trout in the 1920s, but this time make him play under 1920s conditions. No body armor, no face guard, no batting helmet, no video review between at-bats or games, no modern lighting or groundkeeping or climate control or physical therapy, first-class air travel replaced by long train rides in coach, etc. Perhaps he's closer to Chick Hafey than the GOAT?

Jay Jaffe

3:06

I think he'd mash. WAAAY more power than Hafey

Guest

3:08

What should the Jays do with Kikuchi?

Jay Jaffe

3:12

Fix him? they've signed him through 2024 so they had better try. Wouldn't surprise me if Stripling's return bumps him out of the rotation

Estevão

3:13

With Lamet DFA'd, the Brewers traded Hader for a rental closer and two ok prospects. they're prob seeing something that I'm not, but the more I think about it, the more it seems like a very underwhelming return (that's if Rogers gets right over there). I always expect meh packages for relievers, but even in this instance I'm somewhat baffled

Jay Jaffe

3:17

part of it is that they're wary of Hader's increasing price tag, and that his performance is trending in the wrong direction. My solve-for-x guess here is that they really like Gasser much more than some and see him as a pitcher with mid-rotation potential more than back-end potential. Wrote about it here, with insights from Eric on the prospects https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/08/11/sports/triston-casas-worked-his...

Guest

3:18

Jay, are you trying any west coast ales you can't find back East?

Jay Jaffe

3:20

I haven't been terribly adventurous here because I found a place to get Pliny the Elder bottles and ... why would I not drink Pliny? Others I've had: Alpine Duet, Alesmith .394 (which i love more for the concept and the packaging than for the beer itself), Modern Times Orderville Hazy, a few different offerings from Rouleur brewery where I went with Eric Longenhagen and Bill Mitchel the other night. I've got another week here, so stay tuned

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

3:20

Is Soto/Machado/Tatis a scarier threesome in the batter's box than Betts/Turner/Freeman? (this year, not all-time)

Jay Jaffe

3:21

if Tatis is up to his capabilities... well, i would love to see which one of those trios looks scarier because they both seem awesome on paper

John

3:22

How do you think about Xander Bogaerts’s value if you’re Chaim Bloom? On one hand, I get a bit alarmed when I look at Baseball Reference’s most similar list and see John Valentin. On the other hand, Bogaerts is just so steady and reliably good. Like, this offseason, Carlos Correa would be an alternative --Correa is probably the more skilled shortstop and a bit younger, but it seems like he’s gonna miss like ¼ of every season with injuries. Bogaerts is out there practically every day, doing his job. And then as another factor, you know that he can play in Boston. If they let him walk and sign Correa or Trea Turner, you don’t know for sure that he isn’t going to be like the Boston version of Carl Crawford. How would you analyze all of that?

Jay Jaffe

3:24

this is worth an article down the road but I think there are two issues here: 1, Story is the better defensive shortstop (XB's numbers this year are decent, which is out of character) and 2. Devers is at third and is ~4 years younger. I wouldn't be surprised if Bogaerts is wearing another uniform next year and don't see the Sox as players for Turner or Correa barring a regime change

San Diegoooo

3:25

What do you have planned while you’re here in San Diego?

Jay Jaffe

3:27

Next week is mostly about the kids (mine's nearly 6, her cousin nearly 8). Zoo, a few museums, beach, pool, maybe Legoland. Some local friends to see, and I'm taking my dad, my wife, and my daughter to Thursday's Pads-Nationals

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

3:27

Would Babe Ruth be a first ballot HOF on any other team? I know he would have made it in, but it might have a been a longer stretch if he spent his whole career with, say, the Reds.

Jay Jaffe

3:27

DYING

bosoxforlife

3:27

When you say you have only been to 22-24 ballparks are you only including major league parks. I attended my first game at Fenway in 1938 and my present count is

Jay Jaffe

3:28

that's major league and includes defunct ones in NY and MIN

Jaem Triver

3:28

With his 81st RBI, Francisco Lindor just tied Jose Reyes for the Mets record for RBIs by a shortstop in a season. The previous holder of the record before Reyes? Famed slugger Rey Ordonez, with 60 in 1999.

Jay Jaffe

3:28

you were expecting Bud Harrelson or Doug Flynn?

John

3:28

Looks like the Vogelbach/Naquin/Ruf trio might be a good move after all. Their combined average strong platoon wRC+ is 138, or top 30 in the league.

Jay Jaffe

3:29

Mets looking pretty sharp with those moves. might have to unmute the 375 Mets fans in my Twitter feed who complained that they didn't do enough

WinTwins0410

3:29

Jay, a thought experiment: a "source" at the HoF just handed me December's Contemporary Baseball Era player ballot in advance (again, it's a thought experiment; no one actually has shared a ballot with me!). The Contemporary Baseball Era ballot contains the following names: Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Sosa, McGriff, Dwight Evans, Dave Parker, Lou Whitaker. Do I have a close to accurate December ballot? Or could you see Lofton or Hershiser sneaking on there? And realistically, can you see any names being chosen for the eight-person ballot *other* than the 10 listed above?

Jay Jaffe

3:36

Parker will be on the earlier ballot (2025 Classic) and I don't think Sosa will be on this one based on his lousy showings on the BBWAA ballots. Hershiser and Lofton would seem to be possibilities; we don't know how well Orel did last time other than "fewer than five votes" which also describes Albert Belle, Joe Carter, and Will Clark. All of them were at fewer than five in 2017 as well, as was Mark McGwire. I think those reheats plus Lofton is the pool for the final two spots though I might have a different answer if I sat and thought for longer

whoops missed the fragment from this:

bosoxforlife

3:36

Is your ballpark list only major league ballparks? Since I attended my first game at Fenway in 1948 my present count is 29 major league and 39 minor league parks. I have been laid up this season but hope to get to Fredericksburg next year. I wonder if anyone on the blog ever got to see games in The Polo Grounds. Ebbets Field, Shibe Park, before it was called Connie Mack Stadium, and Griffith Stadium?

Jay Jaffe

3:37

Fenway going back to 1948 is very cool. I have ahandful of minor league parks under my belt too but would have to stop to count.

Jim Edmonds

3:38

Arenado or Goldy for NL MVP?

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