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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/15/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
Good afternoon and welcome to my "Ides of August" chat! Today is the third anniversary of my daughter's due date; she put off her arrival for another 11 days while we tore our hair out, in marked contrast to the way her two writer-parents approach deadlines.

Anyhoo, my piece staring into the heart of darkness that is the 2019 Tigers just went live https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-tigers-might-be-historically-bad/

And in honor of getting to use the phrase "heart of darkness" into my work, I'm spinning the Peter Laughner box set this afternoon. Laughner was the original guitar player for Pere Ubu when they did their first two singles ("30 Seconds over Tokyo" b/w "Heart of Darkness" came first) and left behind an incredible legacy for somebody who died young at age 24.

Anyway... on with the show.
Ay Ay Ron
12:04
Hi, Jay.  Who do you greatly helped their HOF case the most based on their 2019 performance?  Who do you think hurt it the most?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
This is quite likely my next article, so look for it either tomorrow or early next week at FG.
nibbish
12:05
In your recent article, you mentioned that the Twins could have upgraded at first by trading for Tyler White or Miguel Andújar. Could you elaborate about that? Neither of them (particularly White) seem to be upgrades, or at least not enough to actually *trade* for.
I mean "Jesús Aguilar" my mistake, sorry.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
"Upgrade" is perhaps too strong a word, but "try literally anything else, because what you're doing clearly isn't working" was my point
12:07
My point was that with guys like Aguílar and White, there were alternatives out there available at low cost, and little reason to settle for Cron given his months-long slide.
stever20
12:08
Hot take- the trade of Greinke hurt his HOF chances more than anything else this year.  Would have had a real shot at the Cy Young, and also a much tougher situation in Houston than he had in Arizona.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
Winning a World Series, or at least getting to show off in the postseason, is a big deal when it comes to a Hall of Fame case, too. The trade to Houston deprives Greinke of the value boost that comes with his offense, but one look at the way that the Astros have helped guys like Cole, Verlander, Pressly, and now Sanchez improve should tell you that this isn't likely to be a step backwards for Greinke. Plus, I don't think he had a strong chance at a Cy in AZ this year without some great hot streak down the stretch.
Concrete fan
12:11
Ramón Laureano has quietly (aside from his great throw) put up 5.1 WAR over his first career 595 PA. Do you think he can keep performing like a borderline star?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
What's weird is that despite the proliferation of web gems that he produces, his defensive metrics aren't all that good this year (-2 UZR, -5 DRS). I'd be pretty cautious about buying high on a guy with a walk rate below 6%; I think he's likely to settle in as above average but not a star.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:15
Honus Wagner's Hall of Fame plaque begins with "The greatest shortstop in baseball history." Do you feel it's appropriate to put statements like that on the plaques? It's opinion-based and subject to change should a Troutian SS emerge tomorrow.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
I think it's pretty silly to understand this as something beyond a statement of his standing at the time of induction, looking back at 50+ years of major league history and taking into account the tendency towards purple prose that weighed down so much sportswriting of the time.

Besides, he's still #1 at shortstop in the JAWS rankings https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_SS.shtml
mmddyyyy
12:17
How long have you been with fangraphs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
About 18 months. I came aboard in February 2018 after nearly six full years at Sports Illustrated. The place no longer feels new to me, but that's not a bad thing at all — I'm enjoying writing about baseball as much as I ever have, and feel lucky to have such great colleagues
Clayton Kershaw
12:18
I feel like I'm pitching at an elite level again. Is there any way for me to get in the Cy Young conversation this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
My advice is to throw up a string of zeroes down the stretch, because right now you have to overtake to pitchers in your own rotation (Ryu and Buehler) to get in on the action. Not saying it can't be done, given how well you've been pitching.

On the Kershaw note, check out Ben Clemens' recent piece here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-remains-of-clayton-kershaw/ and Craig Goldstein over at Baseball Prospectus: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/52368/deep-but-playabl...
stever20
12:22
who is  the next 75+ year old coach to come take over a team and get them better after Phil Regan and Charlie Manuel?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
The new market inefficiency is septuagenarian coaches! Leo Mazzone is only 70 but he seems like a guy who should get another shot.
Roman Numeral Three
12:25
Now that catcher defense is getting easier to quantify through analytics, are past catcher WARs being retroactively changed to account for the defensive metrics?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
Yes. When we added Jared Cross's version of a framing metric in March, ours was retroactively upgraded (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/war-update-catcher-framing/) — with some eye-opening results (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/framing-the-hall-of-fame-cases-for-martin-...). At some point, we're hopeful that we can add framing for the pitch count era (1988-2001) as Baseball Prospectus has done.

Separately, B-Ref updated its 1890-1952 catcher metrics "based on stolen bases, caught stealing, errors, passed balls, and, from 1925 on, wild pitches.  Prior to this update, these players’ defensive abilities were judged only based on errors and passed balls."
Tom
12:30
Where do you see Trout ending up on CF JAWS rankings?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
top three but it will be tough for him to overtake Mays and Cobb unless he's still posting 4-6 WAR seasons into his late 30s, as those guys did. Not saying it won't happen, but he's got a ways to go.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:31
The most amazing thing to me from your Tigers article is that the Red Sox have 0 players with 100 PA and a wRC+ below 90, but they need binoculars to spot the wild card game. That pitching is remarkably awful.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
Crap, you know, I just looked at that and it can't be right given the presences of Jackie Bradley Jr. and Sandy Leon... Their number should be 15.7%, and the A's 25.2% (joining tables was not quite seamless).

Fixed.
Mason Jarre
12:38
Mike Tauchman is a rookie. A nearly 29-year-old rookie. Will his age keep him out of the AL ROY convo, which he deserves to be a part of ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
That's a good question. The NL has Alonso, Tatis Jr., Soroka and Paddack (though he's faded), but the AL has no clear frontrunner, at least if we're incorporating Vlad Jr.'s defense into the question. I guess it will come down to opportunity — how much playing time will Tauchman get if and when some of the injured Yankees come back. I do think he'll have to get a lot AND be exceptional to surpass the easy answer that Vlad Jr. presents.
HappyFunBall
12:42
Speaking of Charlie Manuel, how precedented is it for a former manager to come back as an assistant? Does Gabe Kapler have a babysitter now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
The examples that spring to mind are Leo Durocher working under Walt Alston on the Dodgers from 1961-64, and Cito Gaston coming back to the Blue Jays in 2000-01 under Buck Martinez and Jim Fregosi. I'm sure there are others... and I'm sure there are things that Manuel can teach Kapler, whose teams have underachieved.
Max Scherzer
12:46
Ryu's low ERA is soft right? i'm the front runner for the NL Cy Young this year, aren't I?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
I don't think you're perceived as the frontrunner right now, Max, and as Kershaw's absences have shown, being on the shelf is a bad move in a CY race. Then again, Ryu just missed a couple of starts, too.

Scherzer has a much higher strikeout rate than Ryu, hence the advantage in FIP, and Ryu's 58-point edge in BABIP is helping to drive his ERA lower. Right now, Scherzer has a 1.4-WAR edge in fWAR but just 0.1 in bWAR. We're going to have to wait and see how they fare down the stretch.
ROY
12:51
When can we get a Yordan piece? Check daily for the Yordan piece. YORDAN!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Noted. His name certainly came up in my Aquino piece https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aristides-aquino-is-punishing-baseballs/
Klews
12:51
There's always some team every year that is terrible, but not notably so, that becomes the most boring, forgettable team in baseball. Last year it was the Giants, who is it this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
My vote, cast today, is the Tigers. The Orioles are getting all of the attention because they've been so pummeled by the Yankees and are about to set the single-season record for homers allowed — seriously, they could claim it this weekend — but the Tigers might be the worst collection of position player performances in this millennium (though their rotation is actually not bad).
Squid Vicious
12:55
Brantley probably won't get much HOF chatter, but several current Astros are still young enough to play the "maybe" game (Altuve, Springer, Correa, Bregman). Add in their star pitchers, and you get a whole lot of potential HOFers on one team. Does any team compare—maybe the 2000s Yankees?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
There are teams from the 1920s, 30s, and 40s with as many as nine Hall of Famers at one time. The 2000s Yankees had Jeter, Rivera and Mussina; they also had Raines in the mid-1990s, before the Moose arrived. Perhaps Sabathia will join them in Cooperstwon, but don't hold your breath on A-Rod or Sheffield or Kevin Brown or...

As for the Astros, Brantley is amid his second HOF-caliber season at age 32, so that's not happening. Correa needs to stay on the field to reap the benefits of his early arrival, and Altuve needs to arrest this year's slide.
bosoxforlife
1:03
Yanking the starter after retiring 14 straight on 79 pitches after 6 sent me through the ceiling last night. This is modern managing and Callaway got what he deserved. What is your take?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
Nothing looks worse for a manager than calling the wrong number in the bullpen ,but I understand the decisions that got him into this mess. Callaway isn't a good manager, but Matz — who's not exactly known for his stamina or robust health — was in his 3rd time through the order (he's been hit hard); Donaldson and Duvall (next two hitters) have generally feasted on lefties; and Lugo has been their best reliever. It wasn't a terrible process, but the outcome was terrible, and the pitchfork mob is going to judge on outcomes alone.
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