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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/15/19
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Ryan
1:08
Better odds: Pujols gets to 700 HRs, or Cabrera gets to 500 HRs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
Pujols needs 49 homers over the next 2 1/4 seasons, Cabrera 27 over the next  5 1/4. You do the math on that one.
Nate
1:10
On AL ROY guys...wouldn't Yordan Alvarez have a big voice there as well?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
yes. Should have included him.
Guest
1:13
Baseball Reference says Tauchman exceeded Rookie status in 2018
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
hmm, yes, 79 days of service entering this year.
Position battle
1:14
DJ, Gio, Andujar... where (positions) do they all play next year? Or do they sell high on Gio/low on Miguel?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
A lot will depend upon what they decide to do with Didi Gregorius, who's a pending free agent and scuffling in his return from TJ surgery. If they return Torres to SS (where he held his own) and put DJ at second base, then there's room for both Urshela (who can spot at other positions) and Andujar (who won't necessarily be ready to go on Opening Day)
Archer
1:16
Things don't look good for the Tigers in 2020, either. Their rotation might be improved, but their position players will probably be even worse. What chance do you give them of pulling an Astros and getting 3 straight #1 picks?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
Are you forgetting the Orioles had 1/1 this year? Their 3 would need to be 2020-22, and I'm not quite THAT down on them.
Archer
1:18
Whoops, forgot that Mize was 2 years ago, and the Tigers had the 5th pick. The badness all blends together, it would be 3 out of 4 1st overall picks.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
didn't see this until after I answered the above
Cove Dweller
1:18
How is Al Avila still employed given the Tigers' struggles in conjunction with the moves he has (and hasn't) made?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:19
Really, that's a huge question. The timing of his extension announcement was strange, and his track record since taking over doesn't scream "lock that guy in"
Ralph Rowdie
1:19
Boy is it hard to not compare Will Smith to a young Buster Posey. As a Dodgers, and baseball, fan is it hard to temper expectations? Whom are you more excited for, Smith or Buehler?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:21
I'm more excited about Buehler. Smith is good, but Posey-good? he's about a year and a half older than Buster was when debuting, which says something about the two players' ceilings, as does draft position.
EndlessBacklash
1:21
Aristides Aquino is the most recent example of a trend where  prospects come up and hit home runs very quickly. It seems like those 'X home runs in the first Y games' club/league records have been falling everywhere the last couple of years.  Is there a reason for this beyond launch angle, approach, more prospects with a plus-power profile, and the new baseball?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
It's a perfect storm of those things, I think. High home run rates league-wide driven by the post-mid-2015 ball, big rewards for changing to a more uppercut-oriented swing, limited minor league video on guys for scouting purposes.
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins
1:23
Don't you think the real problem was having Matz hit and then taking him out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:24
Ah, missed that, and yes, that's a dumb mistake by Callaway.

Sorry, I didn't watch the game last night (I was watching Kershaw deal when I wasn't wrangling the toddler) and only briefly glanced at the box score.
Dunkin' Donuts
1:24
I have never read a definitive opinion whether Jay Jaffe believes Tony Gwynn deserves to be in the HOF.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
Does the word "duh" mean anything to you? Yes, of course he deserves to be in. Batting average tends to inflate a player's reputation beyond what the value metrics tell us but it would take some kind of density to conclude he's got no place in Cooperstown.
rick
1:28
how can we reconcile the recent and massive aristedes aquino stance/swing change, and the existing - relatively poor - outlook from the projection systems?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:28
I'd guess we better wait and see instead of casting his Hall of Fame plaque.
Altuve
1:28
Haven't I already arrested this year's slide?? I want an apology!!!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:30
I'm talking big picture. 8.1 bWAR in 2017 (age-27 season), 5.2 last year (and with injury), 2.8 so far this year (with more injury)... Given the general aging patterns of second basemen, that's not a good trend to be wearing.
Tim Livingston
1:30
Has Buster Posey completely fallen off the wagon for HOF consideration with his last couple seasons? This is really starting to look like a Mauer situation, even though the award bonafides are more impressive.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:34
A catcher playing 140 times a year (including other positions) will wear a guy down prematurely, but no, he hasn't fallen off the HOF wagon, particularly given that catcher framing is going to be a significant aspect of his case and he's been one of, if not the, best in that department. More to the point, this should help the blithering idiots who think Mauer is undeserving of Cooperstown get a damn clue about the realities of the position.
Nolan
1:35
Will Cabrera actually play the next 5 1/2 years?  He seems like a prime candidate to retire soon in light (1) his age, (2) his injury issues, (3) the sorry state of the Tigers, and (4) all the accomplishments he has already accumulated.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:36
I'm guessing he might not play the entire time, but there aren't a lot of players willing to walk away from $100 million-plus instead of sticking around for the sometimes-grim denouement.
Nick
1:36
Does Will Smith have a Gary-Sanchez like ROY campaign in him?  It's probably too late to catch Alonso, Tatis, etc.,  but he's 13th in rookie batting WAR already, and Tatis is on the IL...
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:36
Pete Alonso says hi.
Derek
1:37
It's easy to be upset at owners not spending a ton of money each offseason, but spending up to or over the soft cap every yearcan get teams into situations like the Red Sox are currently in, where extending Betts would almost certainly skyrocket them into the tax. As a Red Sox fan it will be a real bummer to see Betts go, especially if it's because they're paying guys like Eovaldi and the ghost of Pablo Sandoval instead... Then again, if this is the price for a WS win, then maybe it's worth it? Is that how I should be looking at this?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:41
Huh, it's like re-signing Eovaldi wasn't a great idea.

The Sox are in a bit of a bind, but they have one more offseason to reorient themselves. Porcello's coming off the books, Martinez may well opt out, and Pedroia probably retires with some kind of buyout or deferred compensation package that reduces their AAV hit or concentrates it on one year (maybe this one). It might mean they can't retain JBJ in order to further trim payroll, but I can't imagine that would be a dealbreaker.
Bo
1:41
Are the Braves' bullpen woes going to ease up eventually? They bought high on Greene, Martin and Melancon, but all three have had amazingly terrible luck in Atlanta by FIP measures.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:42
It seems like judging a trade on two weeks of performance isn' t a great idea.
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins
1:42
You talked about the Twins not getting a first baseman - do you think that is worse than them not getting at least one more arm for their bullpen?  seems like they've already tired out Dyson and Romo
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:42
It seems like judging a trade on two weeks of performance isn' t a great idea.
1:47
In both of these cases, you're complaining about a small sample and the fact that these teams DID something but maybe not enough. How many pitchers should they have added? Always, it's one more than they did, because the old truism about not having too much pitching is generally, you know, true.

Yes, the Braves bought high on Greene in particular, but I do think the added talent from those 3 deals will help them over a 2-3 month window, and I'm not about to dwell on two weeks of FIP. Dyson hit the IL with biceps tendinitis, and if I know pitchers, it seems quite possible that he was pitching through some amount discomfort before he arrived.

I'd not panic about either situation just yet, unless setting yourself on fire and running down the street is how you get your kicks, in which case, go nuts but don't expect me to spray you with the hose. I'll be too busy laughing.
Mason Jarre
1:47
Jay, Fangraphs includes Tauchman as rookie on the leaderboards. Maybe an internal memo is in order.
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