JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/18/20

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Jay Jaffe

3:01

(not that they need to provide actual excuses for voting no)

Catchers In General

3:01

Why does it seem like the HOF does not reward guys who walk a lot? They put so much more value in career hits than walks, and avg over OBP.

Jay Jaffe

3:04

Hall voters have always rewarded players who hit for average and put up flashy Triple Crown stats over a long period to a greater degree than players who gain "hidden" value through walks and defense.Thanks to WAR- and JAWS-driven choices, we're seeing more exceptions to that, but some voters' HOF analysis doesn't go beyond the numbers on the bottom of the TV screen.

Derek

3:04

Two years in a row with major injury problems for the Yankees... Any chance there's something at play here beyond bad luck?

Jay Jaffe

3:06

It's certainly worth looking at the training and medical staff as a whole. Worth noting that in January, the team hired the well-regarded Eric Cressey to oversee its training and strength and conditioning departments. The pandemic shutdown and short ramp-up may be blurring the extent to which the new staff is having an impact, though. The Yankees are hardly the only ones dealing with a bunch of injuries

Estevão

3:06

It's fair to say that the Padres "lucked" into Tatis Jr? At least to a certain extent

Jay Jaffe

3:09

Yes, in that at the time of the trade, Tatis was 17 and had yet to play a competitive season. Eric Longenhagen graded him as a 40 FV prospect at that point, and he was hardly alone within the industry https://blogs.fangraphs.com/evaluating-the-prospect-in-the-james-shiel...

Dmitry

3:09

Is there any merit to my friend's argument that a catcher (say Sanchez) who blocks poorly can have an unmeasured negative impact on pitchers, who become too scared to throw pitches in the dirt, and thus get too much plate?

Jay Jaffe

3:15

Well, how about the measured impact of Sanchez' improved blocking last year? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/gary-sanchez-takes-a-knee/

3:16

(sorry, was trying to track down BP's 2020 catching numbers but they're not readily available yet)

3:18

Sanchez has been working with a new one-knee stance designed to improve his pitch framing at the bottom of the zone, possibly at the expense of his blocking. I wrote about it in February https://blogs.fangraphs.com/gary-sanchez-takes-a-knee/. The Athletic's Lindsey Adler checked in on his progress today https://theathletic.com/2004547/2020/08/18/in-a-new-stance-is-gary-san...

Derek

3:20

Any defensible reason the Orioles haven't called up Mountcastle (and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Rutschman) yet?

Jay Jaffe

3:20

I imagine even they aren't so convinced that their start is for real.

jake

3:20

what’s a realistic return for Workman, Barnes, or Moreland

Jay Jaffe

3:21

if its MLB-ready talent, a guy you can plug in and expect very little of, just like those guys. Every organization already has their equivalent, for the most part.

WinTwins0410

3:22

Jay, the Cubs' starting rotation has gotten it done so far this year. Does that surprise you, or would you have guessed from the get-go that they'd be where they are, 21 games in? Also, any thoughts on relierver Jeremy Jeffress' strong performance thus far?

Jay Jaffe

3:26

I'm a bit surprised, but they're a smart organization so I'm not shocked. One had to figure that sooner or later, if healthy Yu Darvish would pitch like the guy who merited that $126 million deal, and that somehow they'd fix Tyler Chatwood. Jon Lester is once again outpitching his peripherals by a very wide margin (2.74 ERA, 4.38 FIP) that I don't expect to continue. Likewise Jeremy Jeffress (0.90 ERA, 2.82 FIP), whose low strikeout rate (17.1%) doesn't do much for me.

Derek

3:27

After reading your article on Betts this morning, it again led me to wonder if Betts should get moved to center in LA. In Boston it made a good deal of sense given Fenway's dimensions and JBJ's existence, but am I wrong in thinking the Dodgers are probably leaving runs (and therefore, wins) on the table by keeping Betts in right?

Jay Jaffe

3:29

Well, the Dodgers do have Cody Bellinger, who was outstanding in right field last year and held his own in center. I don't think it's unreasonable to experiment with the placement of the two, just as the Sox did at one point when it came to Betts and Bradley.

Brian

3:30

Yordan just placed on the DL with knee soreness. Have you heard if it's chronic and how do you view him past just this season?

Jay Jaffe

3:33

I'm concerned anytime a player returns to the IL quickly after missing time with a similar problem, but I don't know the details about his knee beyond the Astros saying that his MRI was clean. As to his long-term outlook, if he can hit anything close to last year he'll be fine, but DH-only guys tend not to have much longevity because once they stop hitting they're useless.

Sodo Mojo

3:34

Kyle Seager has looked very sharp this year after finishing strong las year. Does the option clause still make him unlikely to be traded or does his latest resurgence given him surplus value?

Jay Jaffe

3:36

Seager's due $18 million next year and $15 million plus some unspecified increase between $5M and $20M based on award and playing time. I think it's tougher to trade a player like that if those incentives are attainable (he's not going to win MVP, sorry Kyle). Any kind of deal probably requires the Mariners to absorb a fair bit of salary, particularly if the option is picked up.

TKDC

3:37

Mike Clevanger, more like Mike Angerclev(eland), amirite?

Jay Jaffe

3:37

the petition to rename the Indians the Cleveland Clevingers is on hold for the moment

Estevão

3:37

Clevinger for healthy Will Smith, DJ Peters and Dennis Santana. Too much for either side?

Jay Jaffe

3:37

Far too much for Dodgers to give up.

Appa Yip Yip

3:38

Re: Meg chats. I am sure she is aware but just in case can you please tell her that the Blue Jays are putting scarves on the cutout of the classy lady behind home plate. It seems like the sort of thing she will enjoy.

Jay Jaffe

3:39

I relayed this to her and she enjoyed it. She reminded me that her expanded duties on Effectively Wild are a factor in her scarcity on the chat front.

Robert

3:40

Plesac or clevinger to Anaheim: Do the angels have what it takes to get that done? Not a whole lot that the Indians could throw into their lineup to improve the outfield. Is Goodwin plus stuff enough? I doubt it.

Jay Jaffe

3:43

to these eyes, it's tough to see the two teams matching up in a trade. Brandon Marsh, their top non-Adell prospect, might have a hard time cracking an outfield with Trout and Adell, especially if Ohtani winds up in the OF, too; maybe taking on some amount of Justin Upton's deal is the poison pill that helps to balance things out? Spitballing here

Estevão

3:43

Which early decline surprised you more Hanley Ramirez or King Felix?

Jay Jaffe

3:45

Felix. Hanley's inability to stay healthy and the difficulty of hiding his glove made the possibility of a rapid decline more likely. I'm genuinely surprised and depressed that Hernandez, a pitcher on a Hall of Fame track until a couple years ago, fell apart so completely

Jazz

3:46

Between Tatis Jr’s otherworldly start and the Nats’ mediocre record it seems Juan Soto is not getting a ton of fanfare this season but wow do I love watching him hit. He’s been awesome this year.

Jay Jaffe

3:46

Blame that damn West Coast Bias!

3:47

Soto missed time due to COVID-19 but he's hitting .409/.490/.955, which is insane but also through only 51 PA. But you're right, he's a ton of fun to watch.

Mike Trout

3:47

Why isn’t there an article about the fact that my BB/9 is less than half of my career rate, and my SLG is 120(!) points higher than my career average? When can I expect one?

Jay Jaffe

3:47

Over short stretches, stats do weird things. That's it, there's the article.

TKDC

3:48

Are we nearing the end of the slow death of the knuckleball and if so how do you feel about that?

Jay Jaffe

3:48

Wrote about the disappearing knuckleballer last year https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ryan-feierabend-and-the-disappearing-knuck...

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