Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/18/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. I'm just back from a trip to Salt Lake City to celebrate my father's 85th birthday and the upcoming birthdays of my daughter and niece. While in transit, I learned that Tommy John had passed away. My tribute to him just went live moments ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tommy-john-1943-2026-crafty-lefty-and-firs...
David
12:03
If you could populate the Hall of Fame with the same number of players, would there would be a 90% overlap with those who are actually enshrined? Or do you think the writers and others who have voted over the years got it right more often than 90% of the time - or less?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
Not sure about 90%, but maybe 75%. I'd put in more Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball players and strip out some of the 1930s guys who rode the Frisch/Terry Express. More starting pitchers from the 1980s to 2000s. More figures whose influence went beyond the numbers, including John Donaldson, Lefty O'Doul, Fernando Valenzuela, and yes, Tommy John (and Dr. Frank Jobe).
doink000
12:06
I don't understand why Webb wasn't more seriously talked about in terms of potentially being on the move. I know he got the coveted "Buster Posey Assurance," but best case scenario is this time will be on the up and up by 2028/2029 and Webb isn't getting any younger/more durable. As a potential number 1, top shelf number 2 on a reasonable contract, seems like he would've landed a pretty decent prospects haul. Or, could've packaged him with a salary dump like Adames and still could've gotten good value.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
I think some of it comes down to a perception and public relations. "Let's get rid of these expensive acquisitions that were mistakes to acquire (Devers, Adames) and keep the homegrown guys we've nurtured (Webb) and that the fan base has grown to love."
12:09
But you're right in that Webb has more trade value than a contract that is underwater or bordering on it
Phil
12:10
Does Sonny Gray count as short? And if so, is he the best short pitcher since the dead ball era? (I saw a stat that he has the most strikeout since Tim Keefe for any pitcher 5'10" or shorter.) And finally, is that even a thing? (I am somewhat embarrased even to be asking this question given that he's taller tham me, but oh well.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
Gray is listed at 5-foot-10, and that's more likely to be accurate in this day of ABS, but Pedro Martinez was listed at 5-foot-11 at a time when heights were subject to exaggeration. And that comparison ain't even a fair fight
12:14
Whitey Ford was listed at 5-foot-10, as was Billy Pierce, both of whom have at least 17 bWAR more than Gray
elfpants
12:14
Is the Phillies' post-Arraez defensive shuffle genius or the wild flailings of a fantasy baseball manager who's desperately scanning the positional eligibility charts, and in the end will it matter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
So far it seems to have helped, but separating correlation from causation on the basis of 13 games is a fool's errand. I will point out that the Phillies have allowed the majors' HIGHEST BABIP since August 4 (.321), and that's six points higher than their full-season mark, but they've done better with fielding-independent outcomes. They've also hit for a 112 wRC+ since the deadline
Harry Arrieta
12:19
Last night PCA became the 7th player ever to bookend a game with homers. This season he has: tripled his career walk rate, had a 3-war month, posted 6.5 war in a 65 game stretch, set the career record for 5-star catches in less than 400 games, posted another 30/30 season, is practically lapping the war field since May 1, hit for the cycle. Yet no writer has given him his flowers/article. What gives?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
He was #3 in our Trade Value series just a couple weeks ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-trade-value-nos-1-10/, and he's having an MVP caliber season. I've been thinking of doing something on him soon, because I agree he deserves a closer look
BuccoFan
12:22
Hi Jay - what do you think is going on with Paul Skenes? Fatigue? Mechanics? Underlying injury?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
It looks like batters are doing much better against his sinker, splitter, and changeup, so it may be a familiarity thing. He's giving up more barrels and harder contact, also more fly balls. The pitch-modelng apps say his stuff has regressed. Maybe there's some fatigue there, maybe it's the curse of Team USA (see Raleigh, Cal). Doubt it's an injury because even the Pirates would be careful there if they saw something
shandykoufax
12:26
Would you rather be  fan in the AL central (4 below average payrolls, 1 record >.500) or AL West (4 payrolls in top half, 1 record >.500). Or, would you rather face disappointment, or expected meh?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
I'm a coastal person and my rooting interests have always reflected that, so I'd go AL West, but in a division that includes Chicago and Detroit, I'm not sure i'd hang my hat on the payroll distinctions being natural outcomes of geography here, if that's what you're suggesting
Phillip Denny
12:28
Assuming roughly equal offensive output, would you rather have a player also give you elite CF defense and 30+ SB, or 80 IP of a sub 2 ERA?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
The CF is going to be far more valuable over the course of a season.
hibbert
12:28
I'd add Curt Flood to the list of "beyond the numbers" guys.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
Yes, absolutely
Phillip Denny
12:30
Kyle Tucker sures seems to have all the hallmarks of the yips. Could you provide a brief review of the famous cases of the yips, and which (if any) players were able to recover?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
Guys who come to mind regarding the yips: Steve Blass, Dale Murphy (as a catcher, so probably the best recovery upon switching positions) Steve Sax (strong recovery), Chuck Knoblauch, Mackey Sasser, Jon Lester, Daniel Bard, Tyler Matzek, Jarred Saltalamacchia, Rick Ankiel  (cool mid-career conversion to OF), Mark Wohlers.
12:33
The Athletic's Rustin Dodd recently had a good piece about the yips, and his own battle with them. Gift link https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7499515/2026/08/13/sports-yips-perfor...
opifijikl
12:34
what Do you think of the trade deadline deals made now that a couple weeks have passed? Any sticking out to you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
I don't think 2 weeks is much time to judge a trade. Even the Arraez deal mentioned above — the guy is hitting .241/.262/.362, so let's not get carried away that the move is the cause of a hot streak
12:36
The Mets are 10-3 since the deadline, was unloading those pitchers the key to them playing championship-caliber baseball?
bosoxforlife
12:36
I recognize you as one of the leading authorities on the Hall of fame. What is your position on players who were very good for a long period while never being considered the best? Tommy John is obviously the point of my question and, IMHO, clearly is a Hall of Famer much like Craig Biggio.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
As I wrote in my tribute linked above — and as I've said in connection with Hall of Fame elections for a quarter-century now — John's fitness for the Hall depends upon the subjective credit one wishes to grant him for his pioneering role, because on a performance-only basis, he doesn't stack up tremendously well, especially within a cohort of pitchers that is VERY well represented in Cooperstown. I don't think it's out of bounds at all to grant him that credit, but voters have shown little imagination when it comes to those things.
12:39
Biggio is a clear HOFer to me on a performance basis. He' 15th in JAWS, a few points below the standard, but don't forget his early career was constrained by the time he spent catching
12:40
and that was a remarkably successful transition.
hyphenkee
12:42
Is there any tracking of when a player scorches a ball so hard it smacks off the wall and they only get a single? (Oneil Cruz, et al)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
We could probably figure out a statcast query where we have the longest singles with the highest exit velocities. Give me a minute or two at Baseball Savant
12:46
Singles of at least 300 feet hit at 100 mph or higher: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfAB=single%7C&hfGT=R%7...
Not sure that's what I expected:
12:47
Cruz does have the highest average exit velo of anybody with at least 100 batted ball events (96 mph) but that's not asking directly about wallbangers.
souldougie
12:47
If MLB were to create a Hall of Infamy, who would be some first-ballot inductees?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
Cap Anson, Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson and the other banned Black Sox
oh, and Hal Chase
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