Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/18/26
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Ragbrai
12:50
Nice debut by Baez but since then he looks over matched. Is he going back to AAA to readjust, even though he has nothing to prove there, or do they let him work it out at the major league level since they are not looking like a playoff team? Where do you think he truly is at? DOes he make the OD roster in '27 and be the star everyone thinks he could be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
He's 0-for-14 with 6 strikeouts and an HBP since the big 3-homer debut, but he's absolutely scorching the ball when he makes contact, with an average exit velo on those other BIP of 99.8 mph, with a 75% hard-hit rate. yes, the 22.6% swinging strike rate in that span is worrisome but let's maybe wait more than three games before passing judgment
Jeremy Fox
12:53
Hypothesis: nobody wants competitive balance. Because this year we have it in spades, especially in the AL, and everybody hates it.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
Parity is the absolute dullest thing in sports.
12:55
I think it's not so much that nobody wants it but that they don't really understand what they want
Nick Pollack
12:55
JAY! Just wanna say you're dope and if people haven't met you in person yet, y'all should find the time to do so. Hope we can grab a beer soon!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
aw, if that's really you, Nick, hit me up! You have my #
viceroy
12:55
what would be possible issues with an “IP+” metric that scales a pitchers innings pitched against their relative peers (e.g top 100 pitchers league wide). Some pitchers like Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander have exceeded 250 innings in years when nobody else did, so it feels like they should get more credit in sJAWS than pitchers who went 300 innings while others were going 400+
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
I think you could do something like BFP/GS+ (batters faced pitching per start, relative to the league average), but it's not like those extra innings don't get recognized in S-JAWS — career WAR stays the same.
1:00
And S-JAWS is still doing a pretty good job of suppressing the scores of the 19th-century hurlers who piled up so many innings and are more distant analogues to modern day pitchers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-incredible-shrink...
1:01
1:02
That table is from 2022, so I wouldn't swear every figure reflects recent WAR adjustments but those guys are ancient history
azi mo
1:02
Will Albert Belle or Dale Murphy ever make the Hall of Fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
Belle: hell no
1:03
nor should he. Christ, what an asshole. Disturbing number of his bad actions were directed at women. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c...
1:04
it wouldn't surprise me if Murphy gets in some day
drplantwrench
1:04
if you could convince Jon Bois to make a documentary similar to his Dave Stieb documentary, who would you get him to cover and why?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
Oh man, that Stieb series was so good. I'm a few episodes into his mound-charging one and been meaning to pick that up.
1:07
Offhand, i bet he could do a series on the 1980s-90s dark ages Yankees and all of their drama that would be entertaining as hell
dodgerdog
1:07
Do you expect Bruce Bochy and Dusty Baker to be elected by this winter’s HOF Era Committee? Would you be surprised to see anyone other than those two?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
If both are on the ballot, yes I expect them to be elected. Lou Piniella, who's been a near-miss twice, might also be on that ballot. but the 8 candidate/3 vote format seems likely to leave somebody on the outside looking in.
daml91
1:09
Little reason to think Kyle Schwarber won't reach 500 HRs at this rate. Will that truly be enough to give the 2016 Cubs their only HOFer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
I don't know if will be enough, and while i think he has a decent shot at 500 (he has 377), I wouldn't take his continued progress toward that goal for granted.
Jeremy Fox
1:13
Are the five best AL teams all in the AL East?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
I think you could argue it's the strongest division but that's not the same as having the five best teams. The White Sox and Tigers both have higher Pythag and BaseRuns Win% than the Orioles and Blue Jays, for example.
mschroeder
1:15
Do you think people are underestimating the baseline growth trajectory for Jackson Chourio? His numbers regressed a bit last season and last season does look similar overall to last couple seasons. But watching basically every game he’s developed noticeably more plate discipline until 2 strikes, still looks like he’ll develop more strength as he physically matures, and he’s only 22 years old. He’s looking a little stiffer running or more reluctant to open it up all the time since his hamstring issues last season, but if he was a 22-year old rookie playing 3-4 WAR over full season with high level streaks, I suspect the hype would still be high.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
I tend to agree. We had him 16th in our Trade Value series between Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodríguez, and that's some pretty serious company.
cyanocitta
1:17
Another flavor of this question may have already been asked, but here goes... Considering ZiPS, projected depth charts, and remaining SOS for all involved teams, what are the projected deciles (e.g., 10th through 90th percentiles) for the expected number of wins to claim the final AL Wild Card spot? With seven to eight teams in the thick of the conversation, I see this as an exercise in compounding probabilities and distribution tails—one which is better left to the calculators!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
"compounding probabilities and distribution tails" are lyrics to the type of song that Dan Szymborski and Ben Clemens tap their toes to. You're better off asking either of them than me
Phil
1:18
Carl Mays, Hall of Infamy
showbusiness77
1:19
Has Giancarlo's chances for HOF totally cratered after this lost year? Thanks for the chat. How do you feel about fringe Yankees like Pettitte, Posada .... does AROD have any shot by the time he reaches his 10th year? Is Judge already in if he never played another game or we still have a ways to go?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
Re: Stanton, I think his odds have taken a big hit even from last year. He's not even going to approach last year's totals of 77 games played and 24 homers.

I have voted for Pettitte a couple of times though I think he's kind of a reach in the context of HOF-caliber pitchers. Posada's pitch-framing nukes his value to the point where I can't take his candidacy seriously. A-Rod isn't going to increase from 40% to 75% over the next five cycles.
war2d2
1:23
Jay! What would you do with Edward Cabrera at this point? Granted he’s back on the IL with blisters, but even the early innings of his last start before that cropped up were pretty bad. He has all the hallmarks of a Daniel Cabrera type (last name aside): otherworldly stuff but can’t command it well enough to maintain his value to the team. Reducing him to two pitches and making him a reliever seems like the most obvious thing for the short term, to me.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
the stuff is way down this year according to both pitch-modeling systems we use, and I have no real idea why except that it's tough to pitch when your body won't cooperate.
1:28
I do wonder whether there's enough deception in his arsenal — if his tunneling is worse than before – but that's not something i know offhand. I'm just out here asking the questions, man.
1:29
Ok folks, I have a killer headache and think it's because I desperately need to eat something, so I'm gonna call it here. Thanks so much for stopping by!
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