JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/23/18

Jay Jaffe

12:01

Howdy, folks! Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of today’s chat. I’m hunched over a laptop as I write this, because for the second time within a month, my desktop computer (late 2014 27” iMac) has been sidelined by some kind of corrupted hard drive. The first time was on July 31; thankfully, this isn’t as high-stress a situation, but it’s a pain in the ass nonetheless. Apologies if bad ergonomics lead me to throw in the towel early today.

Rollie's Mustache

12:02

Some smart people (like Jim Callis) are already predicting Vlad Jr to be a future HOF. Doesn’t that seem slightly irresponsible? Bryce Harper, for example, would need to average almost 4.5 WAR for the next 10 years to match the average HOF right fielder’s career WAR of 72.7. Entirely possible he does, but it’s not a given. And averaging 30 HR for the next decade leaves him short of 500. So if one of the most hyped prospects *ever* in Harper isn’t a lock seven years into his career, shouldn’t we exercise a bit more caution with a 19 year old likely to be a DH long-term?

Jay Jaffe

12:08

To an extent that's half-comical and half-criminal, the Blue Jays seem to be doing everything they can to avoid calling up Vlad Jr. this year. Dude has hit .390/.447/.649, mostly in the upper minors, yet somehow he's not ready for prime time because reasons.

I do think it's perfectly reasonable to have reservations on Vlad Jr.'s path given the likelihood that he's going to wind up on the left end of the defensive spectrum, but as I wrote in connection to Ronald Acuña, players who debut in the majors younger than 21 historically have a very high rate of making the Hall of Fame https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/acunas-hall-of-fame-chance.... For a player getting 1 PA in his age-19 season, it's 10.5%, and at 100 PA, it's 24%. At age 20, the numbers are 9.2% and 19%. The reality is that if you're good enough to play in the majors at such a young age, you're a major talent, but yes, it's too early to start forging that plaque in Cooperstown.

Phil

12:08

Will Mike Mussina's election hopefully either next year or 2020, help to "reset", at least somewhat, the requirements for a SP to make the HOF? I mean, amazingly, his was still probably better than every current pitcher's resume except Kershaw, but it feels like he could make a noticeable difference for guys like Verlander and Sabathia.

Jay Jaffe

12:11

Whether it's next year or not (he's on the writers' ballot until 2023, not that I think it will take that long), Mussina's election along with those of the late Roy Halladay (eligible this winter) and, eventually, Curt Schilling (if his mouth doesn't set him back again) will help to define a more 21st-century oriented standard for Hall of Fame pitchers, but even then, there's a break between them and the players we're seeing today (Verlander et al) as far as the changing conditions.

CamdenWarehouse

12:11

congratulations on new addition. what's Sandy's JAWS score?

Jay Jaffe

12:13

Thanks! She's off to a great start. Her Puppy JAWS is strong, but in addition to learning the housebreaking stuff she's still learning what can and can't be chewed upon. Gonna take awhile.

Hello

12:13

What do you think the Mets should do at catcher for 2019?

Jay Jaffe

12:17

As the Mets' first manager, Casey Stengel said, "You gotta have a catcher or you're gonna have a lot of passed balls."

the oft-injured Travis d'Arnaud still has one more year of arbitration eligibility, so unless he's non-tendered, he'll probably be in the mix. Yasmani Grandal is probably the top free agent catcher, but there's no earthly reason for him to choose the Mets. Wilson Ramos, Martin Maldonado, Jonathan Lucroy and Nick Hundley are some other free agent catchers. Not necessarily good ones (except Ramos), but that's the class the Mets have put themselves in.

Scott

12:18

Which right fielders has a better HOF chance Mookie Betts or Bryce Harper?

Jay Jaffe

12:21

they're both in their age-25 season. Betts has the edge in bWAR, 31.6 to 28.6, but Harper is further along in the counting stats, and he already has an MVP on the mantel. I'd say it's a toss-up right now.

Stuart

12:21

Thoughts on Lemahieu ROS?

Jay Jaffe

12:23

If you're a Rockies position player and you're not named Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story or (I guess, if we're overemphasizing one single season of awful defensive metrics) Charlie Blackmon, you should be left by the curb to be carted away by a less discerning team.

Christian

12:25

Any news if Gio Gonzales went through waivers yet? He seems like the only palatable starter that may make it through waivers.

Jay Jaffe

12:28

I don't know this for a fact but I *suspect* he was placed on waivers at the same time Adams, Murphy and Harper were but that he went unclaimed, meaning that he can be traded anywhere before August 31. He'd be an upgrade for some contenders, such as the Brewers.

That reminds me, i've got a thing on the rotations of contenders, tied to ROS projections, that is supposed to go up on ESPN Insider today. If you have a subscription, check it out.

12:29

Can teams still exploit the K-Rod loophole for playoff eligibility? For example, can the Yankees replace Montgomery on the playoff roster with someone like Justus Sheffield, even though Montgomery is already on the 60 day DL and Sheffield might not pitch before September 1?

Jay Jaffe

12:31

IIRC, the rule now is that you just have to be on the 40-man roster before the clock strikes September 1, not on the 25-man roster

Bread Gardner

12:32

How much stock do you put in the analyses over at Hall of Stats? I find them to be a good stats-only benchmark for HOF eligibility.

Jay Jaffe

12:34

I have great respect for Adam's work there, but I don't adhere to it. There's more to a Hall of Fame case than just what he can capture in his measures, just as there is more than can be captured by JAWS. Any HOF metric should be used as a starting point for a deeper discussion.

GSon

12:34

Your opinion please.. The Wild Card play in game is the second most exciting day in the baseball season (second to the winning game of the world series).. Do you believe this to be true? Do you want MLB to keep it as a "Win or Go Home" Game" and do you agree.. if you don't want to face a win or go home game..win more games in the regular season?

Jay Jaffe

12:36

I'm pro-Wild Card game. Don't really care if a 110-win team winds up there if they didn't win the division; that's the price you pay. I wouldn't be opposed to an idea that somebody put out there (Travis Sawchik I think) about requiring the lower-seeded WC team to beat the higher-seeded one twice, but the higher seed needing only to win once.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:36

50, 100 years from now, what do you think the legacy of Barry Bonds or the other steroid era sluggers will be?

Jay Jaffe

12:38

50-100 years from now, when genetic enhancement is commonplace (at least among those who can afford it), people will look back and wonder what the fuss was about with regards to the steroid era.

Andrew

12:42

Jeff McNeil is now 100 PA's in and has over 140 wRC+. Is there any chance he can be a pre-breakout Daniel Murphy--high average, low K, low BB, and some doubles power?

Jay Jaffe

12:45

I'm pretty skeptical about 26-year-old players getting their first taste of MLB action, esp. when they didn't make a comparatively lousy farm system's top 30 prospects at the outset of the season. I don't see any harm in the Mets taking a look at him as this current garbage fire burns down to the embers, but I wouldn't expect more out of him than something between a usable bench guy who's not good enough to start and a Quad-A guy.

Pitch_Out

12:45

Better mustache: you or cistulli?

Jay Jaffe

12:46

come on, It would be weird if I chose Carson's.

lOsing Season

12:46

bigger impact for a contender rest of year: mccutchen or holliday?

Jay Jaffe

12:46

Cutch, as he's still an adequate defender in a corner.

Whitty

12:47

With how starting pitchers are used in the modern game, JAWS isn't kind to even the best pitchers in this generation (sans Kershaw). For example, Verlander and Greinke, who are both generally considered future hall of famers, are 62nd and 46th respectively in JAWS. While both are above HOF standards, it seems almost impossible for any pitcher going forward to ever break into the top 20 or so of SP's of all time due purely to volume of usage. So my question I guess is, do you think going forward JAWS will remain as the one of the best ways to evaluate and rank starting pitchers in a historical context?

Jay Jaffe

12:49

I've touched upon this in articles about Roy Halladay and Johan Santana (both before I left SI), Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander here, and maybe I'm forgetting a couple. Ultimately, I think the Sabathia-Verlander generation whose entire careers hail from the 21st century, or at least the wild card era, will be judged more in comparison to each other than to what the Lefty Groves or even the Madduxes and Glavines did.

Andrew

12:50

Does deGrom have any shot at the HOF? He's been one of the best pitchers in the league since his debut. Assuming the wheels don't fall off going forward, what would we need to see for him to have a chance?

Jay Jaffe

12:56

That he didn't get his first taste of the majors until his age-26 seasons suggests a serious uphill climb ahead. He's at 23.6 WAR at age 30 and has just two 5.0 bWAR seasons under his belt. He's going to need to win multiple Cys to have a chance.

Max Scherzer, whose ticket to Cooperstown rests on his multiplicity of awards to a greater extent than any other current starter except maybe Kluber, had 30.7 bWAR through age 30 and had already banked a Cy with two other top-five finishes. Kluber, who's probably the better comp (didn't catch on until age 26 either), had only 19.6 bWAR through age 30 but one Cy and a top-three finish. He's still miles behind the Kershaw/Verlander/Greinke/Sabathia/Scherzer/Felix pack in JAWS.

Brian Snits

12:57

Flowers and Suzuki are both free agents and are both better than most of the catchers you listed as possibilities for the Mets.

Jay Jaffe

12:57

Suzuki is a terrible pitch framer but yes, they're both options, and I meant to mention Flowers.

Bob

12:59

RE: Mets catcher - Kevin Plawecki has been significantly better than the Lucroy/Maldonado/Hundley poopoo platter over the past couple years. Why would he not be the starter by default?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

Kevin Plawecki has provided league-average bat work in limited duty over the past couple of seasons, but he's a below-average framer, average defender. I'm skeptical he'd be a first-division regular but if you're looking to put the Meh in Mets, he's certainly a guy who exists.

Mountie Votto

1:03

You buying the Reds' new strategy of playing guys all over the place to get bats in the lineup or is it just late-season nonsense to get guys like Peraza and Gennett some rest?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

Versatility is the new black, and the Reds have absolutely nothing to lose by trying this.

Bear

1:04

What do you think about Zobrist's case? Does he get a bump from his uncanny ability to let teams get the most out of the rest of their bench while also being one of the best players in the league for four or five solid years?

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