JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/26/22

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Jay Jaffe

2:03

Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the first New York edition of my chat in quite some time. I'm back from my two weeks in San Diego and I had my mind on the local ballclubs here — i didn't get to see much of them from the West Coast due to the timing of games. I covered Tuesday's game and Frankie Montas' rebound (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/frankie-montas-and-the-yankees-get-back-on...), wrote about Francisco Lindor's MVP-caliber season (some folks need to look up the meaning of caliber https://blogs.fangraphs.com/francisco-lindor-is-having-an-mvp-caliber-...), while also covering the Albert Pujols renaissance (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/albert-pujols-is-enjoying-a-renaissance/) and the latest turn in position players pitching (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/suddenly-position-players-are-sealing-more...)

2:05

But wait, there's more! I discussed the Yankees (and to a lesser extent the Cardinals and Jordan Montgomery) with Ben Clemens on the FanGraphs Audio podcast (https://t.co/XJLD76El9I), which also features David Laurila speaking to El Paso Chihuahuas broadcaster-turned-author Tim Hagerty

Anyway, it's a short chat today because I've got to do some dinner shopping in honor of my daughter's sixth birthday

2:06

so let's get to it!

2:06

Thoughts on Julio extension?

Jay Jaffe

2:07

The structure of Julio Rodriguez's massive extension is very complicated, but the topline details, sources tell ESPN: $210 million guaranteed over 14 years with the ability to grow to well over $400M. Includes player and team options.

The great @JesseSanchezMLB was on the deal.

2:08

I'm excited for Mariners fans, some of which are members of the Edgar Martinez wing of the Jaffe family. My own daughter was very impressed by Julio via the Home Run Derby too. I think it's great to see a young player with this much talent get a payday and hope that he continues to live up to the faith the team is placing in him

Guest

2:09

If (/when) Goldschmidt wins MVP, is he almost a lock for HOF?

Jay Jaffe

2:11

I wouldn't say a lock, but he's doing a lot to consolidate his case this year. I wrote about him doing so here recently (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/making-tracks-on-the-road-to-cooperstown-w...) and by bWAR he's not only in a peak season (and thus gaining double traction in JAWS) he's got a shot at a career-best year.

I'll have more on Goldschmidt next week.

Guest

2:12

Off the top of your head, how poorly does this new class of HOF ballot members rank?

Jay Jaffe

2:14

With Carlos Beltran the top candidate it at least has something approaching a JAWS-qualified Hall of Famer, which wasn't the case for the 2021 ballot (Buehrle, Hudson, and Hunter were the top newcomers) or 2012 (Bernie Williams was the best)

2:15

obviously Beltran's involvement in the sign-stealing scandal is probably going to complicate voters' feelings about him, but he's a top-10 center fielder

2:16

Speaking of center fielders who have complicated their Hall of Fame cases, SMH https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kenny-lofton-accus...

I think you can kiss Kenny Lofton's chance of landing on an Era Committee ballot goodbye for a long time

MilwaukeeBeerJays

2:17

Jay, I really just want to say thanks. I've started growing a moustache because of you. Although I did go to a Modest Mouse show last night and saw a couple of dudes with the hipster twirl thing at the ends which kinda turned me off, but for you sir, I will persevere!

Jay Jaffe

2:17

keep on keepin' on, my friend!

Eliot

2:18

What are your thoughts on the Twins going into next season in terms of free agency/re-signing Correa?

Jay Jaffe

2:20

I'd be surprised (but not shocked) if they emerge as players for him long-term because i still think his next deal starts with a 3 and I don't see the Twins going there. but maybe his tepid season has shaved the price a bit and he really likes lutefisk

bosoxforlife

2:20

The last time you chatted I raved about Vaughn Grissom. You were, as one would expect, hesitant but are you ready to jump on the bandwagon now? The Braves should sign him to another one of their incredibly efficient long-term contracts and add him to the amazing core that they have amassed.

Jay Jaffe

2:24

On the one hand, I generally think it's a mistake to get too wound up about 59 PA even when a guy is hitting .382/.424/.600, but on the other, the Braves do seem to know what they're doing with promoting him (and before him Harris). He's not going to maintain a .439 BABIP or thrive forever with a 39% chase rate, but the odds that he's here to stay do seem high.

Some Guy

2:26

Favorite position player pitcher ever? (Obviously not including Ohtani [or Babe Ruth for that matter]) Mine is Drew Butera. He honestly looked like a legit pitcher every time he took the mound.

Jay Jaffe

2:28

Maybe Russell Martin simply because he was one of my favorite players of his time and because of the novelty of him being used to close at the time. But then again, Ichiro finally getting to pitch was so #$%^& cool

Matt

2:28

I got nothing other than I'm excited for Harper to be back today. Baseball games are more fun with him giving his all.

Jay Jaffe

2:28

HELL YES

I remain a big Bryce Harper fan.

Ghost of Ron Santo

2:28

Pat Hughes was recently inducted into the Cubs Hall of Fame; any opinion on his chance at a Ford Frick award? Any broadcaster you think is particularly deserving?

Jay Jaffe

2:30

I think the Frick Award is very tough to weigh in on with much authority because there are team-associated candidates that most of us have never heard a whole lot of, even in the age of MLB Advanced Media. I respect the way a team's fan base might revere such guys but if they don't also have a national profile it's tough for me to appreciate it on the same level.

2:32

I will say that one of the funniest things I have ever experienced in baseball was Kevin Goldstein doing an extended Pat Hughes impression at the 2004 Winter Meetings in Anaheim. This was when he was still at Baseball America and i was still new to Baseball Prospectus. Little did I know we'd become teammates first at BP and then here. I hope he still does that Hughes impression

Brandon

2:32

All discussion about Tatis' Hall of Fame candidacy is premature, right? Not only does have to play like a Hall of Famer but who knows what writers are going to care about in 25 years.

Jay Jaffe

2:35

That's fair. I don't think we know how this mess will be viewed, because it's relatively unparalleled in the annals — a young player not only messing up but doing so at a time when he wasn't even participating in MLB games. The young stars I can think of who were caught, such as Ryan Braun and Starlin Marte, aren't HOF-caliber players and their gotchas were more proximate to their performances.

Honkus Wagner

2:35

do you think Moreno's pending sale of the Angels makes an Ohtani trade more likely this off season?

Jay Jaffe

2:35

yes, i think so

but I think he's going to have to force the issue if he wants out, telling them so

Bighen

2:36

You think the Mets lineup is strong enough to get through the playoffs? I feel like there are a few real holes and one legit thumper in Alonso

Jay Jaffe

2:38

I don't think they match up particularly well against the Dodgers but jeez, Canha and McNeil are high-obp guys, Lindor is an elite player, and they shored up the DH hole with Vogelbach and Ruf.

In a short series, if they can get 3 good starts out of Scherzer and deGrom, they can knock off anybody.

Some Guy

2:39

Happy birthday to the adorable gremlin.

Jay Jaffe

2:39

Thank you!

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