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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/26/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
(yes, we refer to our daughter as a little gremlin sometimes)
NobleHelium
2:39
Do you like the Twins or the White Sox as WC3? Or perhaps the Guardians?
Rita
2:39
How do you see the Wild Card races playing out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
I think the Phillies and Padres hold out in the NL, with the Brewers missing the boat, and that we'll see the Blue Jays, Rays, and Mariners from the AL, with the AL Central being winner take all. that's what the odds say anyway, and I don't really have a good feeling about any of the ALC teams getting off the mat
Pasquantino Forever
2:41
What do you think about the balanced schedule?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
I don't like it, and my big concern is how much more air travel it means for some teams (studies have shown teams don't do well with it), but I think it all depends on whose ox is being gored. I live in NY and get all the stars through here pretty much every year because there are two teams. I also think that replacing division rivalry games with mandatory visits to/from poorly run teams like the Pirates, Royals, and Tigers is a net loss. BUT, if you're somewhere that only gets an infrequent visit from Ohtani and Trout or Soto or Mookie and now you get them every two years, I can see why you'd see this as a win.
2:46
Dan has a good piece on the changes here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-do-the-projections-say-about-the-2023..., though i still want Baseball Savant to put the 2023 data into their air miles calculator https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/map
Joe
2:46
Who is your pick for NL ROY? AL?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
NL to me is probably between the two Braves, Harris and Strider; I'dgo with the former because I think he really shored up that outfield at a time they were desperate. AL I'd lean Julio unless there's significant separation between him and Adley Rutschmann over the final six weeks
John Olerud’s Helmet
2:48
Howdy Mr Jay! Teams still limit pitchers based on innings pitched but at what point do they start limiting based on stress level of individual pitches per game? Seems like something that could be tracked at this point and would be efficient way to judge workload
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
I suspect this is something teams are doing internally already, and on the outside we're a generation behind by using innings as a rough proxy.
2:50
(doing internally not just by counting pitches but by more complicated measures that account for stress levels, rest, workloads, etc.)
Some Guy
2:51
If you had to pick a young'n aside from the usual suspects (JRod, Soto, ect.), who do you think has the best shot at the HoF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
As I've written before, position players in the majors at 21 or younger historically have about a 20-25% chance of making the Hall. Beyond the obvious guys to whom that applies (Soto, Tatis, Rodriguez, Acuña, Franco) a couple I'd keep an eye on would be Bo Bichette (21 in 2019) and Michael Harris II (21 this year). I'm not saying they are even playing like HOF candidates, just that if you're making educated guesses about longshots, they're where I'd start.
Anon21
2:58
Thoughts on why/how the Braves have signed so many position players to long-term extensions early in their service clocks? Is this actually a notable difference from what other teams are doing, and if so, what process is enabling them to get these deals done?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
They seem to be taking a page from the John Hart Cleveland teams of the mid-1990s, which pioneered the move, and let's not forget hart finished his career in Atlanta. Not all of these deals are going to look wise 5-10 years from now but some of them are so far below market that it hardly matters.

I don't have numbers to tell me offhand how frequently this occurs but having five such position players locked up this far in advance (Olson, Acuña, Albies, Riley and Harris are all guaranteed through 2025, with one or two club options tacked on.
RAndoM
3:05
Which players do you believe would have been in the Hall were it not for time missed to strikes, military service, or injuries?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
I think Fred McGriff is probably the only lock as he'd have reached 500 homers without the 1994 strike but that there's a few WW2 guys (Tommy Henrich, Charlie Keller, and Cecil Travis come to mind) who could have really benefited. Likewise for Lou Whitaker (two strikes), Bobby Grich and Dwight Evans (1981 strike). Maybe those guys don't get in off the writers' ballot but they at least stick around to build their bases of support instead of getting bumped after 1 or 2 years.
Appa Yip Yip
3:09
That Rodriguez deal is wild. Floor of 210, ceiling of 470.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
That's a lot of variables
Bighen
3:09
Will Clark or Keith Hernandez?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
Hernandez for me
Mike M
3:09
Brighter future:  LAD or ATL?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
Dodgers because they're better able to outspend their competition AND have a great farm system
Sparky
3:10
You mentioned JORDAN Montgomery, what were your initial thoughts of the trade?  I always thought NYY never seemed to give Montgomery a fair shake and see Bader as an average player with decent speed but with foot problems what can he do to justify the deal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
I didn't like it from the Yankees' perspective, mainly given the question marks about Severino and others. The "he won't start a playoff game" argument from the Kool Aid crowd citing his lone four-inning postseason start from 2020 was unconvincing, to say the least. Discussed both sides of this this a bit with Ben Clemens on the aforementioned FGA podcast linked above.
bosoxforlife
3:13
There was an interesting article today on another site that focused on the Braves success at gaining control over key players throughout their prime years at a reasonable price. The writer called out virtually the rest of the industry and said that teams that didn't pursue this approach were guilty of malpractice. An opinion that I whole-heartedly agree with and the Mariners took a giant step in that direction today. Do you think this will sweep through front offices?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
I don't think it's that extreme — Cleveland's blueprint has been on the table for a quarter-century but it's not like all 30 teams have taken it up equally
Sodo Mojo
3:15
Has anyone calculated the miles the Mariners are going to travel next year.  They were already far and away the most traveled team this year will the new schedule exacerbate that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
I think this cuts down on the miles for the AL West teams and reduces the standard deviation but I'd like to see the numbers
3:16
Here's a summary of the jet lag study by the way https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/01/24/study-fi...
OK folks, I've got a birthday girl who's about to open some presents. Thanks so much for stopping by this week! No chat next week due to the holiday weekend, so I'll see you in a couple weeks
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