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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/27/24
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Correlations
2:55
Do you see the same being true of Judge/Witt and Ohtani/Lindor MVP cases (essentially, any voter that is swayed by defense/WAR in one league would probably do the same in the other?) Therefore, if there are any Witt/Lindor votes, they’d necessarily come from the same ideology/people (ignoring that the actual voters wont vote for both awards)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
There's enough philosophical variance among individual voters that I don't think one league's result necessarily predict the other's. That said, I think in either case the snazzy and rate counting stats/combos will carry the day, not unlike Acuña over Betts last year in the NL.
Steve O
2:57
I don't subscribe to the theory that the Yankees are uniquely bad at developing bats. Developing bats is difficult. Look at the Reds or Pirates. They've been rebuilding for years with high draft picks, and they have developed maybe 3 above average bats between both teams? Or what about the Dodgers? The Dodgers have really only developed Will Smith. Outman, Lux, etc have regressed. Development is difficult.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
It does appear that the tide is shifting for Lux, but what's your window? The Dodgers did draft and develop Bellinger and Verdugo just a couple years before Smith and Lux. They've tended to favor pitching (and have done well, even with the injuries).
Guest
3:01
Do you think Brenton Doyle's numbers are replicable next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
yeah. He's youngish and his expected stats are pretty much in line with his actual ones. Some solid year-to-year improvement there.
sassy sleuth
3:02
have you heard any insider talk/rumblings about the decline of the stl cardinals, as an organization?  i think the lowest attendance in Busch 3's history is going to be the only thing discussed in September.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
their decline is pretty apparent via the naked eye. I saw they recently sent down both Walker and Gorman, who were two well-regarded prospects. They aren't producing starting pitching, and their seemingly endless supply of hotshot yong outfielders all turn into Dylan Carlson. I don't know how Moz keeps his job.
Guest
3:05
heh, I didn't realize there was a baseball player named Jim Morrison (the doors were opened for Bonds to pinch hit for him in that suspended game)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
Yeah, that was much more exciting when i was 14 and hadn't decided the Doors frontman was full of shit
3:06
(which doesn't mean they didn't have some great songs)
Pat
3:06
If you take "Hall of Famer" out of Jeremy's question and make it the greatest living player, is your answer Barry Bonds? Statistically it is, but, not sure how to account for the HGH.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
It's Bonds.
Santaspirt
3:07
Pujols over Schmidt? Career wRC+ is similar (slight edge to Schmidt) without taking into account WAR and defense/position (huge edge to Schmidt). Or did I read your response wrong?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
They're pretty close in WAR (edge Schmidt by about 5 wins) but the big-picture historical factors — the multiple championships and MVPs, the 700/3,000 combo — I think tilt the needle towards Pujols.
DBacks Heater
3:10
How sustainable are the DBacks as the #1 park adjusted offense? .276/.351/.472 triple slash for everyone since June 1 seems unsustainable, but that comes with 9.2% BB%, 19.3% K%, and .311 BABIP; none of that seems too crazy
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
The big thing that makes that (127 wRC+) tough to maintain is the loss of Marte and the effects on his play (if any) when he returns. It's the regression of the .311 BABIP that will take them down.
BobbyP
3:13
Saw a post about the Reds’ future and fit for Soto (and that park!). Do you think players on HoF track (Harper, Machado) look at personal milestones at all or the best are just looking for a successful team when they hit FA?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
I think the biggest driver is a combination of money, likelihood of success with that team ,and the desirability of that region given the specifics of background, family, and other concerns, with personal milestones probably pretty far down the list.
TomBruno23
3:16
Did I see the last pitcher to get to 200 wins last September at Busch Stadium? As in, will it ever happen again?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
I think Gerrit Cole has a pretty good shot, and that we'll get a trickle of others given a confluence of positive circumstances (continued health for Sale, more seasons like this for Nola/Wheeler)
Richard
3:18
Is Bill White a name you expect to see on this year’s Classic Era committee ballot? Wondering if he’s given special consideration since he’s still around and in his 90’s.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
No. White was on last year's Contemporary Era Managers/Executives/Umpires ballot, and so that's the classification in which he'll remain until the next rejiggering. I was very bummed that he fell short, missing by two votes, because I thought his combination of contributions made him the single most qualified honoree, ahead even of Jim Leyland. Here's my profile: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c...
3:23
and here's what I said on MLB Network, about his work as a pioneering broadcaster and executive. If we're not recognizing this type of individual in the Hall of Fame, then what is the Hall of Fame for?

https://x.com/MLBNow/status/1729587212495241445
NatsFan
3:24
How much do you buy into Luis Garcia Jr. going forward? He's only 24 and looks like he's finally found some consistency
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
you said it yourself: he's 24. Hitting the ball harder (and in the air) in terms of barrel rate if not average EV. Solid gains
jackal
3:26
what does the future hold for Dalton Rushing?  Do the Dodgers make him an outfielder?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
it seems like they're going the outfield path, at least until the end of this season, because they have Will Smith in place for a good long while and view Diego Cartaya as the better catcher. Trades could shake things up but they must really like Rushing's bat enough to view him this way
bringbackpologrounds
3:30
Which HOF shortstop does Lindor remind you of most?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
Maybe a more durable, switch-hitting Barry Larkin
Guest
3:31
Would you vote for Judge right now as a hall of famer considering his war7 and pretty good JAWs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
50 JAWS? yeah, considering I voted for Sheffield (49.3) three times
birds birds birds
3:31
Got a couple Hall of Very Good players that you wish were just a little better so you could really argue they belong in the HOF, just because you like them?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
Fernando Valenzuela would be one of them
3:35
There are a whole bunch of other starters I think might be worthy (Cone, Hershiser, Stieb, and Santana, for example).
Steve O
3:35
The last 5ish years was my window. Sorry, I should've clarified. So Bellinger wouldn't be in that group. But my point was that it's not unique to the Yankees.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
Appreciate the clarification, thanks
Colton
3:35
Oneil Cruz being moved to CF for the last month of the season feels odd to me. My guess is that it's to see how it takes to it for next year, but isn't that what Spring Training is for as well? Give him the offseason to work on the transition and come into the spring ready to play it. Just odd timing in my opinion. Have any thoughts on the move or timing yourself?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
it's a chance to give him game activity and on-the-job training at a time when there's no playoff position at stake, then give him the winter and spring to fine-tune.
They must really like IKF at shortstop
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