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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/29/23
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Guest
2:40
Vlad Jr. will probably be at $20-22 million in arbitration next year. Disregarding age, what would his skillset get on a one-year deal in free agency? I'm thinking David Ortiz, who was getting $15 million on short-term contracts near the end, but that was a few years ago and may not be a very good comparable!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
That's a good question. Given his offensive and defensive woes,  his value is falling; that 6.3-WAR 2021 season feels like it was half a decade ago. Something in the $25 million range wouldn't surprise on a one-off, but unless he starts trending upwards I don't see him getting much higher than that or getting a long-term deal at a higher AAV
sandwiches4ever
2:42
Every PA given to Josh Donaldson -- if he returns -- is a wasted opportunity for the Yankees. Would they have to DFA him if he were cleared to play and didn't want to reinstate him to the roster?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
I honestly think a DFA is where this is headed. I'm not certain if no allowing him to go through the normal rehab assignment process would be grounds for a grievance, but at best it's probably going to be a mini-showcase for him to audition for another team. I think even the Yankees realize it's time to move on
Keith C
2:44
Who in 23’ surprised you regarding expected rebounds that turned into sustained declines, and vice versa, guys who pulled out of tailspins that seemed permanent?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
Vlad Jr's failure to turn things around is a puzzler, especially when it seemed some positive regression was in store when I looked at him right after the Derby https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vlad-jr-makes-history-with-derby-win-but-h...
2:47
I'm also surprised that Javier Báez hasn't turned things around and has instead dug a deeper hole
NL MVP
2:47
Mookie or Acuna? Who ya got at this precise moment in time?
For a more nuanced view, how do you, personally, define "valuable" in terms of the NL 2023 edition of this award? Both teams are juggernauts running away with their divisions (for now, at least)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
Over the past couple of weeks i've started to lean Betts. I love Acuña and there's no doubt he's putting up a season for the ages with his HR/SB combo, and it's not like he's cooled off at the plate after his hot start. His April and August wRC+ are within a few points of each other and likewise his 1st/2nd half
But
2:51
What Betts has done, moving back to the middle infield and playing shortstop like he's Lindor's little brother has been remarkable. The flexibility he's afforded the Dodgers has done a lot to stretch a roster that's thinner than usual, and he's taken over the WAR lead and NL wRC+ lead along the way. Given how all of that helped turn the Dodgers from a team that was uncharacteristically chasing first place into one that  increasingly has the division salted away, I think that breaks what is more or less a tie for me on the value question
Pumpsie
2:52
As an organization, do you predict the Orioles will act more like the Rays or the Astros? Like the Rays, their youth is a bit of an illusion as they slow-played some guys in the minors; like the Astros, they tanked up on high draft picks. The Astros spent money out of those dark years; the Rays just keep on Ray-ing. Are recent O's ownership comments a smokescreen?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
I think they're more like the Rays in terms of their belief of how far they can stretch a dollar and how little they're willing to spend, but John Angelos is more full of shit than either of the other two teams' owners — which is saying something
Aaron
2:54
I've been thinking about which HoF player had the most notable injury history that they had to overcome in the context of thinking about Ohtani's now two elbow injuries. Does anyone come to mind?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
I don't have an easy offhand answer but one that strikes me is Jim Palmer missing most of his age-21 and all of his age-22 season (1967-68) with arm problems in the days before Tommy John or rotator cuff surgery were real options
Iron man
2:57
What do you consider the minimum number of games to say a player played a "full season"? In 2022 there were qualified batters with <120 games. I feel like 120 games is not a "full season", but I'm not sure where I draw the line. Maybe 130 games, which is 80% of the season? Even that seems low, a player could miss a full month and still play 130 games.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
it's a semantics thing that I don't have terribly strong feelings about but I'd say 130ish games is pretty full
2:58
it allows for an injury absence or maybe some aches and pains but a team doesn't have to go crazy covering for that long
Guest
2:58
When does the SP HOF correction finally come? Today, there are 4 active, obvious, traditional selections for HOF SPs (Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke). Compare that to 1980, there were at least a dozen guys still active who had undeniably earned HOF induction. I think guys like Tim Hudson (very good for a long time) or Sale/Degrom (otherworldly for a brief time) should be considered HOF-worthy given the change in pitcher usage over the past 30 years or so
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
if it's going to happen i think it starts retrospectively with some of the guys I've highlighted in the past such as Hershiser, Cone,  Stieb and Santana. The problem with that is that it depends on the bottlnecks that the Hall has imposed upon the Era Committee process to subside, and I just don't think that's in the cards anytime soon
Re: BROOKLYN
3:00
Congrats on accepting/closing!!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
Oh, we're not even close to closing. Just said yes to an offer on our place and had someone say yes to the offer we made. Closing would happen during the playoffs — good thing I won't have to worry about covering the Yankees or Mets in person then LOL
Guest
3:02
Any thoughts on Marcus Semien as an outside chance to get to HOF ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
Wrote about him here (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep...) and he's already surpassed his end-of-season projection. He's sneaking into the picture.
Matt VW
3:03
Bill Simmons started his latest podcast by calling the Mookie Betts deal "the worst Boston sports trade of [his] lifetime." I get it could look even worse with the passing of time, but for now it's still got to be Bagwell for Andersen, no?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
I think that's still a fair position but there was no emotion tied up in losing Bagwell, who was a complete unknown at the time except maybe to prospect heads, and Larry Andersen didn't linger around Boston to remind people of their folly. Betts was beloved in Boston and Verdugo is a promising player but also a headache and a half, so I understand Simmons' position
Zombocom
3:05
And I'm giddy because the mariners are in first place. This year's team is definitely better than last year's, but there's enough time left in the season to be anxious about whether or not they can keep this up. As an impartial and experienced observer of baseball, do you think they look like a contender?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
yes, albeit one with some holes. But I really do like their rotation more than most other contenders' and they're a lot of fun to watch these days
Jaffe rhymes with Taffy
3:07
Hi Jay - it's August 29 and all thirty managers that started the year are still managing their team.  Is this notable?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
Not particularly. You only have to go back to 2021 to find a season where all 30 managers made it through the season, and 2017 before that. We're about to hit the point where we see a could see a few early dismissals
Teoscar Hernández
3:09
Do you think he gets a QO from the Mariners after this season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
No. trending downward from that 2020-21 high, solid player but I don't see the Mariners going there
mac
3:10
it would be insane for the yankees to jettison gleyber torres to open up a spot for oswald peraza unless they're planning a total teardown, no?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
Torres is a year away from free agency and could still probably fetch a decent return in trade, so I don't think it's insane but I also don't think it's a move the Yankees are likely to do.
Scott
3:12
Ohtani to M’s this off-season makes a lot more sense now, right?  Deep enough in pitching he can hit while rehabbing the arm and gets to play with Julio.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
Honesty there's only a few teams that make sense to me as suitors for him, namely the Dodgers, Giants, and Mariners. Sure the Angels will try, but the wreckage of his run with them will loom large, and I don't see either the Mets or Yankees being real players for him given the state of their rosters. The Cubs, if they decide to commit to spending a lot, might be the X factor, but I'm not sure they can convince Ohtani to leave the west coast.
v2micca
3:15
Tangential to Bryce Harper, I've noticed that among active players currently on a hall of fame trajectory, very few of them were top 10 picks.  It feels like, in spite of the advances of sabre metrics, front offices still really struggle to consistently identify the best future players in the draft when compared to other sports leagues.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
Cole (1st), Correa (1st), Verlander (2nd), Machado (3rd), Greinke (6th), Kershaw (7th), and Lindor (8th) stand out as top-10 picks who appear to be on the way, but as we know, drafting is something of a crapshoot and always has been; it took 23 years for a team to choose a future Hall of Famer at #1 (Griffey)
3:19
i think part of the problem is teams drafting high up are often scared of the bonus demands and so players fall out of the top 10. if the top 10 picks were judged solely by long-term future ability, the draft would look different
Jesse
3:20
Where is the new place, Jay?
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