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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/30/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of the hunched-over-laptop Jay Jaffe chat (I'll be attempting to resurrect my desktop computer this afternoon). On with the show!
12:02
Oh, and before I forget, here is my piece today on the Mets' handling of David Wright: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/david-wright-the-mets-and-the-cost-of-...
stever20
12:02
how many more chances if you are Dave Roberts do you give Kenley Jansen?   At what point does loyalty have to go out the door?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
Well, last night we saw Roberts use Kenta Maeda to close out a 3-0 game. I think the short-term reality is that Roberts will retain the option to use somebody else to close while looking to find lower-leverage spots for Jansen, who has allowed runs in his last 4 outings since returning from his heart scare. The longer-term reality is that without a functioning Kenley Jansen, the Dodgers probably aren't going anywhere in October.
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free
12:05
You’re late. I want my money back.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
here is the $0.00 you paid to get in today. You were never going to get the minutes you spent back anyway.
Vslyke
12:06
AA has done a great job as the Braves GM so far, right? I really like the Duda pickup yesterday, and Gausman is proving me wrong so far.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
Yes, I think Anthopoulos has done very nice work in upgrading the team in-season without giving up too much; Rene Rivera was a solid addition as well. The one that hasn't paid off yet is the trade of Lucas Sims, Preston Tucker and Matt Wisler for Adam Duvall. but he's got years of control left so we should resist judging that on a 37 PA sample.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:10
Props for that reference to The Very Hungry Caterpillar the other day.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
Thank you! One very cool thing about parenting is getting reacquainted with classics that I enjoyed at that age. Dr. Seuss, Richard Scarry, some random UK-published stuff from my family's stint in Malaysia (Little Tiger Takes a Trip, and What I Saw). Some of the references have slipped into my work.

And holy cow, Eric Carle is an inner-circle Hall of Famer as an illustrator.
Lunar verLander
12:12
You should just start fixing your desktop now and post any problems you have to the chat. There are probably enough tech-savy people in the chat who could help you live.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
If people were complaining about the speed at which I move through questions before, they would riot over the time I spend watching progress bars and holding my breath as my drive does/does not boot
Jkim
12:14
The upcoming AZ vs. LAD series has to be the biggest one in terms of playoff implications in the NL right? 1 game apart, 4 game series,
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
I haven't looked at a full schedule but yes, that would seem to be quite a crucial series. Looking at the season-to-date stats version of our playoff odds, LA has a 65% chance at the playoffs, AZ 57%, so it's a good chance this will be an either-or situation in the end. The two teams also play games 157-159 in Arizona in late Sept.
BP
12:18
Why is Oscar Taveres listed as 26 years old and alive and well? Is he chilling with tupac in the DR?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
Ugh. I will look into this with our tech team.
Kyle
12:19
What are King Felix's hall of fame chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
Worse than when I wrote about them in March, I fear https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/will-king-felix-reach-cooperstown/ Eight wins closer to 200 (he's at 168) but -0.9 bWAR; he's dropped from 97th to 103rd among starting pitchers in JAWS https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml
Ranger
12:22
Does Beltre retire after this season? If so, would replace him at 3rd with Profar or Gallo?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
I don't think Beltre  has made  up his mind, and suspect that his decision will hinge on whether he believes he'll be able to play 3B regularly  next year, or have to settle for a DH-heavy role. If he does retire, I believe that Profar is much more likely to succeed him at 3B than Gallo given the latter's vocal distaste for the position and the fact that he hasn't played a single inning there all season.
Chuncey Wiggins
12:27
Look into your crystal ball and tell me what you see about the future of MLB streaming games.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
25 years from now, after the robot uprising but before global warming claims both coasts, Robot Commissioner Selig (ugh) will declare that he will create a Blue Ribbon panel to investigate complaints about MLB blackout rules, right after Tampa Bay and Oakland get new taxpayer-funded ballparks.
Serviceable
12:32
Christian Yelich: Over/under 15% chance he makes the Hall of Fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
Offhand, I'd say over that, maybe 20-25%. He's at 23.5 bWAR in his age-26 season. HOF outfielders within 1.5 WAR of him in either direction include Yaz, Rice, Vlad, Flick, P. Waner, Al Simmons and (hopefully) Beltran, with Gwynn, Clarke, Clemente and Hamilton a bit further below him. It will still depend on his staying power and ability to collect traditional markers such as more All-Star appearances (he has just one) and Gold Gloves (also one) as much as anything else.
Ryan from Pittsburgh
12:37
I know we are less than a month into the Archer trade, but assuming the status quo holds, would this go down as one of the worst trades in baseball history? We are looking at a possible combination of three players providing 3+ WAR per season for the next several years for a guy who looks like he belongs in AAA at the moment.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
the trade obviously has yet to pay off, but after less than one month, I'd avoid throwing superlatives like "the worst" around. Brock-for-Broglio says hi, and as it's August 30, please be sure to wish Bagwell-for-Andersen a happy 28th anniversary.
Oden
12:41
Hey Jay, i think it was last week you mentioned Theo was a Hall slam dunk.   It got me to thinking about Dave Dombrowski--if he wins a WS in Boston, is he as good as in?   What he did building the Expos, then Marlins (though he only gets credit for one WS, he really helped build the 2nd winner, too, during dismantling of first),  and making a laughingstock Detroit team into a two time WS participant, and perennial contender.    Seems to me he'd have to be close, and a Boston flag would put him over the edge.  Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
yes, I think he'll have a very good case when it's all said and done. A very Pat Gillick-like career
Dub
12:45
Do you leave Byron Buxton in AAA to gain a year of service time? He hasnt had a ton of success down there until this week.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
I don't care about his overall line. If he's healthy and having success now, he should be recalled on Sept. 1. Anything besides that is a naked attempt at gaming his service clock, and should be recognized as such, regardless of what Falvey or Levine say.
D
12:49
Do you think there's something about the current state of baseball that has made it possible for small players like Betts and Ramirez (and some others) to dominate?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Yes, in that I think the realization that even smaller guys can elevate the ball and hit for power rather than keeping it on the ground and trying to rely solely on speed is key.
David
12:52
When Theo epstien goes into the HOF, which cap does he wear Red Sox or Cubs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
A gorilla suit.
Adam
12:53
Jose Bautista's WAR7 is higher than his career war.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
a list of such players would be an interesting one though by definition, they almost certainly wouldn't be Hall of Fame caliber.
Matt
12:55
Surprised LAD hasn't been more aggressive with waiver deals for relievers? Madson and Blevins would sure help them out right about now...
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
The Dodgers have a claim on Madson, who has looked terrible lately; I'm not sure he's much help. Blevins cleared waivers and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets dealt before the clock strikes midnight tomorrow. I would suspect the Dodgers add a reliever but I do think they feel that their in-house options (including Urias, eventually) are better
Ben
12:58
Sabathia has got to be HOFer right? He's nearing 3000 Ks, in this age he has more than enough wins, World Series, Cy Young... Pitched during tail end of steroid era, most of his career in AL.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
I would *probably* vote for him, but I don't think that I'm in the majority, let alone the supermajority, just yet. The line for non-300 win guys still starts with Mussina and Schilling, though I do believe both will be in by the time CC hits the ballot. And I hope he stays long enough to get 3,000 K (i.e., coming back next year).
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