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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/30/18

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tb.25

1:01

If Buster Posey somehow became a playing coach, how does that change how you evaluate his hall odds?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

it doesn't. Guy has a HOF-caliber peak, but still needs longevity, not only to convince me on the JAWS scale but to get to the benchmarks that the voting body expects (primarily 2,000 hits).

Garrett

1:03

Is Michael Lorenzsen knockoff brand Shoehi Ohtani?

Jay Jaffe

1:03

his career 26-to-1 K/BB ratio tells me he's something less than that, but his demonstrated ability to run into one makes him a weapon that should be utilized regularly in a PH capacity.

Garrett

1:04

Looking back on it now: How ridiculous was it that th NL Central had 6 teams and the AL West only had 4. That just seems insane that it went on for so long.

Jay Jaffe

1:04

I can't imagine what kind of horse-trading Bud did to wind up with that, because yes it was rather absurd.

Bread Gardner

1:04

In your opinion, what SHOULD be more important when evaluating HOF candidates: stats or narrative? Outside landmark narratives (e.g., Jackie Robinson), I'd tilt nearly 100% to a pure stat-based evaluation. What's your take?

Jay Jaffe

1:07

I tend towards about 80% stats, with the softer stuff far more likely to sway me towards election if a guy is a bit short (awards, history, cultural importance) than to turn me away if his numbers are strong (failed PED tests being the obvious example of the latter).

Brian24

1:08

Given the recent change to the FG WAR calculation for defense, which as I understand it regresses the numbers to account for the unreliability of defensive stats, and which was only applied to the last few years' worth of stats, have you put any thought into regressing the defensive side of WAR in the JAWS calc, or at least considering the impact of extreme defensive numbers? To reveal my bias, I am completely asking because Bernie Williams is my favorite player and his HoF case is completely walloped by the extremely negative defensive numbers he compiled in later years, and given the less-reliable nature of defensive stats this feels somewhat unfair. Thanks! I've been following your work since the Futility Infielder days and I love what you do!

Jay Jaffe

1:11

I've always tried to consider the impact of extreme defensive numbers by citing the evaluations of other systems, but I don't think that would make a damn bit of difference in Bernie's case, because the vast majority of the 90% of voters who passed him up in 2012 (let's exclude the cluster**** of 2013) were far more likely to be doing so in spite of his four Gold Gloves than because of his defensive metrics.

stever20

1:11

how many trades do you expect today and tomorrow?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

i'll set the over/under at 6.5

bosoxforlife

1:12

Your Gorilla Suit comment is destined for the Quick Quips HOF. Still laughing.

Jay Jaffe

1:12

thanks!

Stevil

1:12

Should Seattle still be looking to acquire pitching, or would it be too little, too late?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

it's probably too late but still worth trying, if it's a move that doesn't compromise the Mariners' long-term chances too much. I'm not sure what that would be, but You Can't Have Too Much Pitching and the Mariners Don't Have Enough, So...

Sum

1:14

was cruising BRef last night and was shocked to see Hanley with such a low JAWS score. my gut was that he was borderline, but he's not really close. do you ever get surprised at high/low JAWS scores relative to your expectations? any examples for you?

Jay Jaffe

1:18

Even knowing that the standard in RF (57.8) is a few points higher because of the presence of Ruth, Aaron, Musial, Ott and Frank Robinson — all with 100+ WAR — at the top, the below-standard scores of Sheffield, Sosa and Vlad Guerrero always look a bit odd to me given the breadth of their offensive resumés. I'm also on record as saying that Jeff Kent's low JAWS (45.6) at another high-standard position (57.0 at 2B) surprises me, because I thought he'd be closer to 50 at least.

Ryan from Pittsburgh

1:18

A couple days ago Sawchik wrote on 538 about Baseball positions becoming less and less relevant, and more fluid, as poor defenders are increasingly being moved up the defensive spectrum. Given that WAR calculates defensive value against other players at their position, wouldn't that also mean that, as the collective overall ability to defend at each position deteriorates, that above defenders would then in turn see their defensive contributions to WAR increase, even if their actual ability to man the position doesn't improve? If this increasingly becomes the case, shouldn't WAR be altered to some degree to account for this? For example, comparing all infielders instead of a specific position in the infield?

Jay Jaffe

1:25

I admire Travis' forward thinking on this topic, but I also think that the rest of us fretting over the way a relatively nascent trend would have an impact on the broader, long-term implications of analysis is very premature. Yes, we struggle to quantify defense in the age of the shift, for example, but we still have a pretty decent idea of the best fielders, and we're probably closer to an equilibrium on shifting than we were a few years ago. Ask me again in 20-25 years when we're evaluating Kris Bryant's HOF chances, but right now, I'm not terribly worried.

Paul

1:25

Hi Jay, are the Giants the most .500 team ever ? It seams like their daily distance to .500 is never more than a couple of games. Thanks

Jay Jaffe

1:26

they've never been more than five below or five above .500. I'd love to see this quantified — the extremes of total absolute distance from .500 or something like that — over a season.

Jose Mesa

1:27

Without Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, the Indians' postseason odds don't look good, do they? Any reasonable options here, for the FO or the team?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

The Indians' odds don't look very good given the bullpen situation, but any team going to the playoffs with Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer (assuming he returns) and Clevinger is going to have one of the best around. Maybe they'll make a trade over the next 34 1/2 hours but at this point, I think their best options are rest and prayer.

Howie

1:30

At what point can Yankees fans be excited about an unheralded pitcher who has been killing Triple A recently? Mike King is pitching out of his mind. Curious if it is even on your radar.

Jay Jaffe

1:35

I don't know anything about the guy (https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa874220&position=P) but the numbers look pretty good, Joel Sherman did a brief thing on him for the NY Post (https://nypost.com/2018/08/20/a-trade-throw-in-has-become-rising-yanke...), and he's 25th on MLB Pipeline's list, where there's more detail about him, though I don't know how recent that is.

Bottom line, it's worth asking Eric and Kiley about him.

Chuncey Wiggins

1:35

My friends (all two of them) and I were arguing about the value of a player who never gets on base but guaranteed to take 15 pitch at-bats. Over a 160ish games, this player would destroy pitch counts and lay waste to pitching staffs. What say you?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

This reminds me of a debate we had at Baseball Prospectus, sparked by Kevin Goldstein (who's now a big wheel in the Astros' organization). The idea was you have a pitcher who always gives you seven innings and five runs allowed — would you take that? Can't find it right now, but I'll circle back and add the link later if/when I do.

To your question, the bottom line is that if all a guy does is make outs, ultimately, that's not going to have much detectable value based upon our current measures, even if he does add 15 pitches each plate appearance.

Bernie

1:39

How reliable are Yelich's defensive WAR values for this season? He is supposedly a below average fielder, by the numbers. His defensive WAR is holding him back from leading the league in overall WAR. Could his defense hold him back from winning the MVP?

Jay Jaffe

1:42

any single-season defensive value is open to questions of reliability, but as Yelich's numbers (-1 DRS, -3.1 UZR) aren't extreme or tremendously out of context with the rest of his career, I don't see much reason to be extra-skeptical; he might be losing a few discretionary chances here and there to Lorenzo Cain.

The NL MVP award picture is so crowded that this isn't going to be decided on decimal-based discrepancies in WAR. It will be on whatever narrative importance is attached to the numbers sometime in the second half of September. If the Cardinals get in, it could be Carpenter. If the Braves win the NL East, it could be Freeman. If the Brewers get in, Cain and Yelich might split their support. Who knows?

Shifty

1:43

Is Chris Archer relegated to a #2 starter (or worse) moving forward? What must he do to return to a top-of-the-rotation arm?

Jay Jaffe

1:43

Stop allowing runs by the fistful. He's put up mid-rotation numbers for three straight years now.

David

1:44

If you were to have a vote for the NL cy young award, who would you vote for?

Jay Jaffe

1:44

deGrom, pretty easily based upon his advantages over Scherzer and Nola in ERA, FIP and WAR.

brad

1:46

IT sounds like the experts think Machado to Yankees, but then what do they do with Andujar? Trade him for DeGrom not sure there are many other SP available.

Jay Jaffe

1:48

First base could be a destination for Andujar if Machado signs, but it's also possible that Machado will insist on playing shortstop, in which case, it could be Didi Gregorius bound for a trade.

At the moment, I'm actually skeptical the Yankees are going to be heavily involved in Machado, but that may change.

Griffey's Nerve Tonic

1:48

Update - Mets announced David Wright will report to the big league club today (but not activated...yet).

Jay Jaffe

1:48

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2018/08/30/david-wright-rehab-shifts-to-majo...

The Jaffe Reverse Curse strikes again!

Shuck Bowalter

1:48

What's your hot take on Moncada? Future All Star, or all time over-hype bust?

Jay Jaffe

1:51

The bloodlust of anyone ready to declare a 23-year-old player an "all-time over-hype bust" is ridiculous. Get a grip, man. Obviously, Moncada's numbers aren't great and there are holes in his game at this stage, but the White Sox still have five years of control over him, and there's still plenty of reason to believe he'll improve.

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