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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/4/20

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Jay Jaffe

2:01

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today's chat. While I wait fo the queue to fill, a bit of housekeeping...

Here's my piece from today on Aaron Judge suddenly pulling the ball again https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aaron-judge-is-pulling-the-ball-again/

Here's yesterday's piece on the opt-outs of Lorenzo Cain, Yoenis Céspedes et al https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/as-the-coronavirus-halts-teams-cain-ce...

2:02

Here's today's FanGraphs must-read, Jon Tayler's interview with epidemiologist Zachary Binney https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/epidemiologist-zachary-binney-on-whats...

2:03

And here's a lovely little tribute to the late Terry Cannon of the Baseball Reliquary and Shrine of the Eternals by John Schulian http://www.thestacksreader.com/terry-cannon-the-great-enthusiast

2:03

Think we ever see Yo play again?

Jay Jaffe

2:04

Yes, I think so, particularly if the designated hitter is here to stay in the NL (and I think it is) but given his injury history, he's unlikely to find a guaranteed multiyear deal.

Dodger fan

2:04

While I don’t condone throwing at batters the length of the Kelly suspension baffles me. It’s the equivalent of a 22 game suspension in a full season. Is mlb not adjusting the suspensions to the length of the season? Or have they decided that cheaters not only don’t get punished but actually get treated (in protection) better than non cheaters?

Jay Jaffe

2:07

Even as somebody who has advocated for longer penalties for pitchers who intentionally throw at hitters' heads, I found the 8-game suspension (22-game equivalent as you say) to be egregious. MLB has shown that the length of its suspensions depends heavily on precedent, and the fact that the league has been reluctant to go to something like 15-20 games under normal circumstances raises the question of why now. Yes, Kelly's history (he was suspended 6 games a couple of years ago) and the COVID-19 mandate might play into that, but if the league was serious about players violating the protocols on-field, why weren't more players disciplined?

2:08

As for the "cheater" thing, I don't really see the point of relitigating the Astros' sign-stealing case. The league traded immunity for information, and there's no way that a suspension handed down by Manfred would have stuck because there was nothing in the CBA towards that end (though now there are new rules covering that area).

Joe

2:08

Judge has to be the early leader for MVP, no? Especially once his defensive metrics pick up

Jay Jaffe

2:09

I'm not sure we can get too worked up about MVP candidates so long as Judge is barely outhitting <squints at notes> Hanser Alberto and Donovan Solono

But he's off to a hot start, and more than most of the players on the upper reaches of the leaderboard, figures to stick around. It would be fun to see what he can do if he stays healthy for a whole season, even a fragmentary one

Guest

2:11

Franchy Cordero: 1 K in 25 PAs and not a single soft-hit ball. Reason for optimism despite the early numbers?

Jay Jaffe

2:13

Getting worked up in either direction over 20 or even 50 PA is generally a fool's errand. That Cordero is averaging 94.5 mph exit velo is interesting but he's got a 2.3 GB/FB ratio, so he's not tapping into that power often enough (though admittedly, he does have 70-grade speed. There's plenty of reason to be optimistic about Cordero based on his power-speed combo, but I don't think we've learned a lot that we didn't know in two weeks, other than that he's hopefully healthy.

Marko from Tropoja

2:15

Excluding this shortened year, how many more 5+ WAR seasons does deGrom need before he’s on the Scherzer late-bloomer HOF path? 2? 3?

Jay Jaffe

2:17

if it's just 5-WAR seasons, more like at least 4; if he had four of exactly 5.0, he'd be at something like 56/43/49 JAWS, which is slightly ahead of where Cole Hamels is, but with a much higher peak.

2:18

From a JAWS standpoint, he needs Cy Young-caliber seasons in the 7.0 vicinity to really make up for lost time.

Human Rain Delay

2:19

Opinion on Bellinger’s funk? Or just “April”?

Jay Jaffe

2:20

He funked the hell out of one last night, 108 mph, 35 degree launch

Cody Bellinger has the #Dodgers within one run in the ninth after a solo home run. #mlb #padres

2:21

in re to the kelly punishment, Manfred specifically called against throwing against the Astros in the offseason. That combined with Kelly's history probably played into the 8 game suspension. Everyone was warned, he intentionally threw at 2 players anyways.

Jay Jaffe

2:23

Fair point, though I still think we're still talking something closer to 15 games based on a full season.

here's an interesting thread from labor lawyer Eugene Freedman, who has written for us in the past

There are a couple things here. First, 8 games is worth about 22 games in a regular season, so it's out of proportion. But, MLB referenced prior discipline for Joe Kelly for intentional throwing at another player. Progressive discipline provides for increasing penalties 1/

Joe Kelly and Dave Roberts suspended for Dodgers-Astros incident:

Jorge Posadism

2:23

I asked Ben this question yesterday but do you know if anyone has looked into umpires being rusty after the long layoff? And do you know how one would if someone hasn't done it yet?

Jay Jaffe

2:24

I doubt anybody has looked into this because i don't think we've had many cases of long layoffs for umps. I guess you'd want to look at their called strike accuracy but I have no idea what the year-to-year correlations for that are like, or how many calls you need before a sample stabilizes.

Human Rain Delay

2:24

Odds that the season is cancelled? Seems likely we won’t get a full 60 game schedule.

Jay Jaffe

2:26

Who knows? Obviously, MLB is determined to bluster and blunder ahead in the face of even simultaneous single-team outbreaks. I think if it's shown that the virus can cross teams through on-field play, that might give pause, but the only thing I'd bet on is that MLB will do less than most of us think they should do.

Gil

2:27

While I want the Astros to be punished as much as anyone, people seem to be missing the fact that many players and fans are advocating for punishments that were not negotiated into the CBA which is why the Astros got off so light in the first place. The MLBPA was never going to allow their players to be made examples of. It's part of what they're supposed to fight against. What else is supposed to happen exactly especially now that there are punishments on the books for sign stealing? We can't retroactively enforce them

Jay Jaffe

2:28

Good points here. People want to be angry, and they're still angry at the Astros, and that's their right — but that doesn't mean you can just go off the books to punish them beyond what the CBA says.

Human Rain Delay

2:28

Like or dislike 7inning Double header rules? Seems reasonable,but still funny to see a CG at low pitch count.

Jay Jaffe

2:29

I don't love the rule, but so long as it's contained to this season, I'm fine with it.

Particularly given the rash of pitcher injuries we're seeing. Read Eno here https://theathletic.com/1961073/2020/07/29/baseballs-predicted-injury-...

Chris

2:30

Does fangraphs tag blog posts by team so that it's sortable by team?

Jay Jaffe

2:31

Yes. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/category/yankees/ or whatever team your choice is (scroll down in the Categories column on the far right column of the page).

Mike Ortman

2:31

Will we see Shohei pitch again? Will the Angels say enough of the experiment, or does he have pitching built into his contract?

Jay Jaffe

2:32

I'm writing about Ohtani for tomorrow. Still awaiting MRI results, which I imagine we'll get later today. I'd guess it's quite possible he doesn't get to pitch competitively this year based on the injury, but unless he decides to pack it in — or has re-torn his UCL — I'm skeptical that we've seen the last of his attempts to pitch.

James

2:32

Did you catch any of Paddack v the Dodgers last night? He looks like a three pitch pitcher now.

Jay Jaffe

2:34

Only a little, as I was writing the Judge piece and spinning some funky Lee Dorsey compilation, so I didn't really have much time to focus on Paddack.

Human Rain Delay

2:35

Kershaw at 93 mph. Is that significant, or just in context to not throwing at that speed 2+ years ago?

Jay Jaffe

2:37

significant in the context of his own performance. Via Pitch Info, he averaged 92.3 mph in that start, which is faster than either of the past two seasons. Let's see if he can maintain that over multiple starts before trying to read much more than that into it, but it's a good sign

Carter

2:37

Let's play a little career-homerun before and after: Can any combination of players beat Hank Aaron Judge? If you're loose with the spelling, you could make a good effort with Ted William(s) Clark, or Eddie Mat(t)hew(s) Holliday, or Darrell Evan(s) Longoria. But as far as legitimate candidates, I'm stuck on the likes or Lou Brock Holt.

Jay Jaffe

2:38

Hmm, Hank Aaron Judge gets 755 + 112 = 867 homers. I've got Frank Robinson Cano at 586 + 325 = 911.

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