JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/4/20

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Jay Jaffe

2:40

Can think of some other combos that will get you over 700: Jeff Barry Bonds, Gary Alexander Rodriguez

Jason

2:41

Outside of yesterday's 6th inning and that one Ohtani inning, the A's haven't been able to hit at all. Do you think they get back to being an above average lineup or are they not as good as everyone thought?

Jay Jaffe

2:42

I still think they'll be fine. Chapman and Olson haven't produced but there's no reason to think that they won't come around

Beane

2:42

Asstros losing Osuna for season, maybe more (want a second opinion that's not TJS) ... A's chances at division title?

Jay Jaffe

2:42

If the door is open for the A's, it has far more to do with the loss of Verlander than Osuna.

Chris

2:43

Will the Marlins have to dfa 18 players to return their 58 man 40 man to 40 when players return from covid?

Jay Jaffe

2:43

I was wondering the same thing. Don't really know the answer yet. Have to think they get some leeway on that front, either officially from the league or as a courtesy (teams not claiming guys they outright)

BASEBALL SZN

2:44

It's starting to look like 2019 wasn't a fluke for Gio Urshela and that he is here to stay. Do you agree?

Jay Jaffe

2:46

Something definitely changed with regards to his swing and approach. Jake Mailhot had a look last August https://blogs.fangraphs.com/gio-urshela-powers-up/

WinTwins0410

2:47

Jay, in your 4/25/2019 chat, you wrote that Frank Tanana had more in common with C.C. Sabathia (who I think we all agree is headed to HoF eventually) than Jamie Moyer (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-4-25-19/). Could you expand on your thoughts on Frank and the HoF? The facts: Fine pitcher, lots of wins (240), 57.1 WAR, and high strikeout total (2,773 — more than Spahn, Christy Mathewson and Bob Feller), but also that 3.66 ERA. Three questions: 1) Not Cooperstown-worthy, in your view? 2) If not, did Tanana really deserve to have gotten *zero* votes when he was up on his lone time on the writers’ ballot? (Even Moyer drew 10 votes in his sole year on the ballot.) And 3) Could you see Frank eventually sneaking onto a future small-committee ballot?

Jay Jaffe

2:52

Tanana was briefly a top-shelf pitcher early in his career, with strikeout and ERA titles, and two top-4 finishes in the Cy Young voting by the time he was through his age-23 season. His 28.2 WAR to that point is 6th among post-1900 pitchers behind Feller, Walter Johnson, Blyleven, Gooden, and Mathewson. https://stathead.com/sharing/n9mk8 Then he hurt his arm through overuse, his profile changed, and he became a crafty lefty who stuck around forever and was basically league average for about 16 years.

Sabathia was a top-flight pitcher for longer, while Moyer was really a late bloomer. I don't really see much cause to put Tanana in the Hall of Fame, but he's a Hall of Very Good guy for sure

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:53

I saw a quote from Bellinger today that he reverted to last year's swing after the changes he made this offseason didn't appear to be working thus far. What's the logic behind changing an MVP swing in the first place?

Jay Jaffe

2:54

Some guys have one swing they stick with, others are always tinkering despite their success. Cal Ripken was a notorious tinkerer, for example. Physical state, a drive to improve, and the constant cat-and-mouse game of adjustments all play into the mindset of a tinkerer, I'd say

Guest

2:55

Thought's on Alonso's struggles so far? About the only good thing has been his walk rate...

Jay Jaffe

2:56

I haven't watched him for more than a few PA but his quality of contact hasn't been anywhere near as good in terms of both GB/FB and exit velo. He might have some mechanical issues that need fixing. It's worth a closer look, given how bad he's been

Dave

2:56

What's for lunch?

Jay Jaffe

2:57

leftovers from Han Dynasty, which is finally back up and running after 4 1/2 months of closure. I love their Dry Fry Pork even if it does give me the sweats.

gabekaplerscoconuts

2:57

How many games to teams like the phillies really need to play?It seems insane to play 57 games in 56 days with all the injuries and the likelihood of more postponed or cancelled games

Jay Jaffe

2:58

I can't see them getting to 60, but maybe 55? it might depend on whether or not they're in the playoff picture.

Laffey Tuffy

2:58

Are there any players that you're following this season in foreign leagues?

Jay Jaffe

2:59

I still keep an eye on the KBO, but it's tougher now with MLB up and limping. I'm mostly just tracking the names that became familiar to me during my several-week immersion — Jose Miguel Fernandez, Mel Rojas Jr., Sung-Bum Na, Euiji Yang — but there are some guys who have emerged since then that I'm curious to learn about .

3:00

Bieber>Judge 2020 AL MVP

Jay Jaffe

3:01

Bieber has been impressive, no doubt, and he may be a legit Cy Young contender. I'd be surprised if he or any pitcher gets much traction in an MVP race given that he's likely to pitch at most 12 games.

Dodger fan

3:02

Re manfreds comments that just makes things worse. It’s sounds like mlb has a double standard where the Astros get preferential treatment

Jay Jaffe

3:03

They're getting a fair bit of protection from MLB in light of the threat of actual injury to their players, but I don't think they're getting preferential treatment.

Guest

3:04

Sonny Gray is fire again, and as an A's fan, it's so great to see. What's going on here: praise to the Reds, blame to the Yankees, or is just Sonny re-finding Sonny?

Jay Jaffe

3:05

I think it has a lot to do with reuniting with Derek Johnson, who was his pitching coach at Vanderbilt and is now the pitching coach of the Reds. Eno Sarris and Trent Rosecrans had a good piece about the two and the Reds staff last year https://theathletic.com/1166326/2019/08/29/how-reds-pitching-coach-der...

Farhandrew Zaidman

3:05

Starting pitchers league-wide are averaging just over 4.5 IP/GS, which has obviously resulted in fewer W for SP. With traditional SP counting stats being considered less and less for Cy Young voting each year, is this the year we see the dam break?

Jay Jaffe

3:06

Hey, the Cy Young winner may have more wins than Jacob deGrom did in one of his CY seasons.

3:07

I think we've already seen the adjustment take place. Voters are looking at things besides win totals — strikeouts, ERA, FIP, WAR (both flavors) and more

Re: Ohtani

3:08

Didn't the MRI results come back yesterday? Revealing a forearm strain?

Jay Jaffe

3:09

My bad, yes they did. Brain cramp on that one. Grade 1-2 flexor pronator strain, out 4-6 weeks. Not good as far as pitching again this year unless things go very well.

Your Name

3:09

So I just read a piece by some Braves columnist talking about why Puig would not have been a good fit in Atlanta (fine), and then asserting "it is not surprising to many people he tested positive for the coronavirus". Am I wrong in thinking that's a pretty sleazy and crappy thing to say?

Jay Jaffe

3:10

that is a shitty and unprofessional thing to say

the487

3:11

Grover Cleveland Alexander Rodriguez

Jay Jaffe

3:11

alas Grover Cleveland Alexander (better known as Pete) only hit 11 homers in his career

Pumpsie Green

3:12

Is GB% one of those stats that cements fairly early in a career, say like K%? Or is it more volatile year-to-year? Thinking about Vlad Jr specifically.

Jay Jaffe

3:14

you're welcome to go digging for a more recent study but groundball rate and GB/FB head the list for year-to-year correlations via this https://blogs.fangraphs.com/basic-pitching-metric-correlation-1955-201... . That has a lot to do with a pitcher's repertoire and style of pitching; few pitchers make full overhauls that change them from groundballers to flyballers.

WisconsinRev

3:14

Since WAR is a counting stat and since a 3 to 4 WAR season in 2020 would be really good is there any way to "adjust" JAWS so that a 3 WAR season is more valuable in a shortened 2020 season than in a usual season? Or is JAWS already factoring in shortened seasons (due to injuries, etc.)?

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