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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/4/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
I don't make any mathematical adjustments for strike years or war years when it comes to JAWS, but it's context that should definitely be taken into account. For example, Kenny Lofton leading the AL with 7.2 WAR in 1994 but losing about 1/3 of the season to the strike and winding up a couple points short of the standard in JAWS shouldn't really change anybody from a yes to a no.
Your Name
3:17
Is this a year when pitch speed ratings are being determined by different technology? I've noticed DeGrom seems 1-2mph faster, and you were talking about Kershaw. Are velocities showing a bit higher across the board?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
Statcast changed technologies, from TrackMan radar to Hawk-Eye cameras. I haven't seen anybody do a comparison to see if the new tech is giving significantly different readings but I've heard that it's been a scramble to get the new system up and running given <broad gesture at everything> so yes, I think it's possible we're seeing some data distorted by that. To what extreme, I can't say
Mike Ortman
3:19
In Cooperstown Casebook, you often reference that 2000 hits has been an unofficial prerequisite set by the voters to get into the HOF.  Personally I think it should be case by case, but in general they aren’t wrong.  Or at least there are more deserving guys that have crossed the 2000 hit line.  Who are your top five sub 2000 hit HOF candidates?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
Roughly in order: Minnie Miñoso, Dick Allen, Bobby Grich, Thurman Munson, Andruw Jones, and eventually Chase Utley
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
3:22
How cheating is Moises Alou Gehrig? (825)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
LOL, points for creativity there.
Rockland C
3:23
If I look up the Marlins opening day roster and then compare it to whatever their active roster is in tonight’s game, will it be as easy as simply seeing which 18 players aren’t on the current roster in order to tell which players are out with covid?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
We know a bunch of names but not all of them, but chances are that the rest will be placed on the COVID-19 injured list, which will ID the rest.
Nick
3:24
Re: HRs: Hank Aaron Boone actually beats Judge (for the time being) and look out for Joe Carter Kieboom in a couple decades! (signed, irrational Nats fan)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
Good catch on Boone (126 homers to Judge's 112).
Human Rain Delay
3:25
Thoughts on playing normal baseball in extras, then consider it a tie after 12 inning? Like they do in Japan?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
I greatly prefer that rule, honestly. The KBO uses it as well. IIRC, last year there were 7 ties among 10 teams in a 144-game season, the equivalent of 24 in a full MLB season
Human Rain Delay
3:26
Think there’s a chance for mlb to cap games played at 50 or 55 to allow all teams to play the same amount?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
As a possible fallback, it makes some sense.
Panda Sandoval
3:26
I don't know how to evaluate MLB hitters when watching games on TV other than by results. Any tips to get me started learning more about visually assessing swings from broadcasts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
It's very tough; a lot of it needs to be done after the fact, and even if you're looking at GIFs/video, you have to contend with off-center cameras and such. It's worth looking at the Statcast data both for batted balls and for zone breakdowns.
WinTwins0410
3:27
Jay, is there a HoF case for Sal Bando, in your estimation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
Wait, I have something for this... an outtake from an ESPN insiders piece on each team's most deserving player outside the Hall; ultimately I changed to McGwire for the A's but here's what I wrote about Bando:

"The line for third basemen to get into Cooperstown starts in Oneonta," I wrote in The Cooperstown Casebook, my 2017 tome about my Hall of Fame research. Indeed, with just 15 third basemen enshrined, fewer than any other position besides catcher, there's a sizable handful of worthy honorees on the outside looking in, starting with Scott Rolen and Dick Allen but also including Ken Boyer, Graig Nettles and Bell. Not to be forgotten from this list is Bando, who debuted with the A's in 1966 and served as their regular from 1968-76, a span that includes their three straight championships and five straight AL West titles.
Like many of the aforementioned third basemen, he combined power (242 career homers with a high of 31, and five seasons of at least 20), patience (at least 80 walks in a season six times, with a high of 118, and eight seasons in the AL top 10), and above-average defense (+36 runs, though no Gold Gloves at a time when Brooks Robinson was an automatic choice). Bando finished among the AL's top 10 in WAR seven times from 1969-78 (the last of those as a Brewer), and his seven-year peak score of 44.4 exceeds the position's standard (43.1) though his JAWS is a bit below (53.0 verus 5.7 for the standard). A short-ish career (just 110 games after age-35, and 8,289 career PA) left him well short of 2,000 hits (1,790), and his .254 batting average doesn't help, but he would be a decent selection given his prominent role in the green-and-gold dynasty.
Mike Ortman
3:32
Let’s ask one question in honor of Terry Cannon, who will be greatly missed.  Who would be your top three candidates for the Reliquary?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
ooh, let me pull up the list from this year's candidates
3:35
John Thorn, whose writing and research has greatly illuminated our understanding of the game all the way back to its origins.

Hideo Nomo, for his work as a trailblazer in opening up the game to players from Japan

Melissa Ludtke, for her pioneering work as a reporter who fought battles that paved the way for other women to cover baseball
Terry
3:36
How did Willie Davis (60 WAR) not even make it onto the HOF ballot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
I think it had something to do with his going to Japan and then escaping notice once he returned, though there may be more nefarious readings of his case.
daro
3:37
What the Twins needs to win it all? an Ace? more RP?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
For me the issue is the starting pitching. Rich Hill is already hurt again, and I don't see a frontliner that can match up with the game's aces in a short series.
3:40
Folks there are a ton of good questions in the queue but my dance card for the rest of the afternoon is a full one. Thanks so much for stopping by, and let's do this again next week! Stay safe.
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