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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/8/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Hello, sports fans! Welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. In 24 hours, I'll be arriving in Boston for this week's Saberseminar along with several of my colleagues, and if you're in the area tomorrow night, we'd like you to join us for some snacks, adult beverages, and baseball chatter https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/fangraphs-saberseminar-boston-...
Now, on with the show...
Chris
12:02
What would it take for you to advocate the MVP for someone who didn't lead the league in war?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
I don't think one has to go strictly by a WAR leaderboard to choose an MVP. First off, we have multiple versions of WAR that have different inputs, both with regards to pitching models and defensive metrics, and each of them can help illuminate different aspects of what we're trying to reward.
12:07
Second, we can certainly bring some other stats and context there. WPA and clutch metrics can be part of the discussion. Absences due to injury (that player may have missed some games but been better on a prorated basis as far as WAR is concerned, or he may have come up big while a key teammate was injured), changes in role, particularly strong performances against a division rival or down the stretch... The bottom line is that we don't need to be slaves to the decimals. The WAR leader is still gonna be the WAR leader whether or not he gets the hardware.
Jim
12:08
Tony's article got me thinking... how many homeruns would Cruz need to hit to even have a shot at the HOF? Or will the PED suspension be too much to overcome regarldess?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
Given that we have yet to see a previously suspended player elected, and that even some players who hit a metric ****-ton of homers and weren't suspended but were otherwise connected to PEDs  haven't been elected either, I think it's pretty clear that homers alone aren't going to get Nelson Cruz into the Hall of Fame.

Nor should they. The guy has ~37 WAR by both B-Ref and FanGraphs. He's 64th among right fielders in JAWS. There are a number of right fielders I can mount reasonable arguments for — Larry Walker Dwight Evans, Reggie Smith, Sammy Sosa, Bobby Abreu, Bobby Bonds, Gary Sheffield, Tony Oliva — and all are like 30 to 50 spots higher in JAWS than Cruz.
Dave
12:12
I saw your Twitter comments about FoD. What is your favorite baseball film? I'd probably go with Moneyball.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
The original Bad News Bears is hands down my favorite, and a movie I've seen more times than I could count. I like Bull Durham, Major League, Eight Men Out (historical inaccuracies and all), Bingo Long and the Traveling All-Stars, Sugar and maybe a few others that I'm forgetting (even the BNB sequels), but I'm mostly mistrustful of baseball movies because of the way that Hollywood piles on unearned sentimentality.
J
12:15
Is there any plan to put +stats on player pages? It would make comparisons across a player’s career a lot simpler.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
I'd like to see it happen as well. Not out of the question at all but just not atop the priority list at the moment.
Mind of Maddon
12:17
Meg brought it up in her chat the other day, but WAR doesn't include value for positional versatility. In fact, in many cases there is a penalty because the player isn't typically as good at a different position (though the team may absolutely require it due to injury, etc.). Shouldn't there be value here? Thinking specifically of Bellinger and Heyward (the Cubs absolutely need his WAR to take a hit because they are sans a decent CF)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
well, there's something in there to account for that, but not easy to see, and it may not fully capture value in the way that we interpret. The player's positional adjustment is weighted by his playing time at the two positions, which helps to offset what is likely to be lesser defense at the harder position with the larger adjustment.

From the FG glossary:

Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

Heyward has mixed RF and CF and currently has a positional adjustment of -2.5 runs, which prorates to -3.5, four runs better than if he'd spent the entire season in RF.
12:24
Now, is there a more intangible value to that versatility? Probably. It may help alleviate a platoon mismatch, or allow a team to overcome an injury or a very uneven player (a good hit/no-field guy) at another position. But what's there is a start.
jkim
12:24
Joe Kelly might be the best reliever the Dodgers have.

I don't know what to do w/ this fact but last 20 IP he has a 1.74 ERA and 32Ks
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
He's shortened his repertoire — favoring his two-seamer and curve more than his four-seamer — and turned his season around. He's so streaky that it's tough to think this situation will hold, but for the moment he's giving the Dodgers what they're paying for.
Chris
12:28
Will the Orioles A) dfa Chris Davis B) fire Hyde C) neither D) both will be let go
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
I haven't heard about the root of the beef that led to the altercation between Davis and Hyde was, but I don't think this ends well for the first baseman who's carrying a 55 wRC+. The Orioles have given Davis every chance to rebound from last year's nightmare, but sooner or later, the new(ish) regime  needs to be allowed to treat his contract as the sunk cost that it so obviously is, and get on with trying to turn this team into something besides fodder for an imagined Season 6 of The Wire.
Urshela, Tauchman, Voit...
12:30
Is this just good luck or are they really doing something different with these older nonprospects?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
I think the Yankees have combined some amount of luck with good scouting and analytics to uncover these guys. It's worth noting that they've generally reduced their groundball rates and reap the rewards that have come with hitting the ball in the air with greater frequency.

On the subject of the Yankees, today I've got a piece that's centered around the Gleyber Torres injury scare and the volume of the team's injuries (with some comparisons to the rest of the league) that makes mention of the incredible results they've gotten from their reinforcements https://blogs.fangraphs.com/gleyber-torres-is-the-yankees-last-man-sta...
Dennis
12:35
My biggest problem with BVW is the contradicting moves he seems to do. He signs d'Arnaud only to release him 3 weeks later. He trades for Stroman then trades away Vargas to his competition for nothing. He gives up good prospects for JD Davis like he is a everyday player, but then they don't start him everyday. Trades a prospect for Wilmer Font then releases him...      In your opinion, is there some great reasoning behind these moves or is this GM just so impulsive?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
Ramos, Grandal, Mesoraco, d'Arnaud — BVW made a mess of the catching situation from the get-go but it was pretty clear that Vargas would be traded away at the deadline given the way he angered the brass by threatening the Newsday reporter and then refusing to apologize. That's bush league stuff from a very marginal pitcher. You may have noticed that he hasn't pitched better in Philly so far, and that the gap between the two teams has closed. As for Davis, nobody doubted that the guy can hit, but he's a lousy defender (-14 DRS between 3B and RF) who has been part of the problem in a league-worst defense.

Look, their current hot streak shouldn't distract from the fact that the Mets are dysfucntional, and what you perceive as an impulsive GM should generally be attributed to a father-son owner/COO combo that has a miles-long reputation for micromanaging.
v2micca
12:41
Has Donaldson earned himself a 4 year deal with 25m+ AAV this off season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
Donaldson has played very well (132 wRC+, 3.4 WAR) but I would be shocked if somebody commits $100 million to his age-34 to -37 seasons. We don't live in that world anymore.
JustCurious
12:43
This is a take really disliked among analytic baseball fans (which I like to think I am a part of). But, we always talk about the different marginal value of wins (i.e going from 60 to 61 or 100 to 101 doesn't matter much, 86 to 87 does). Should the MVP voting take that into account? If Yelich and Bellinger are close in WAR I'd vote Yelich because without him his team doesn't sniff the playoffs (assuming the Brewers get in or almost do). I guess it goes to the definition of Most Valuable (i.e best or player who added the most value to his team).

Unrelatedly, do you think pitcher fielding and hitting should factor into the Cy Young voting?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
I think increasing a team's chances at making the playoffs with that kind of marginal bump is a fair element to bring to an MVP argument. Not sure it would be the deciding factor for me but it's not ridiculous to consider.

Pitcher fielding is already incorporated into his run prevention in one way or another, more explicitly in bWAR (based on runs allowed) but also in fWAR (which treats popups as strikeouts, and some of those are caught by pitchers).
Chris
12:47
Favorite baseball movie - Sandlot
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
I've never seen it, TBH. I know a lot of people love it but I was 23 when it came out and didn't even hear of it for another decade. Felt pretty weird to seek out a kids' movie at that stage.
Tom C
12:49
Does this weaker, albeit good season by mookie betts change the outlook on his HOF potential? Or is it a case where the one all-time great season he has carries his WAR totals enough to make him a strong candidate even if he averaged around 4 wins/600 Pa
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
by bWAR he's got last year's 10.9 WAR plus a 9.7 season (2016) under his belt, and he's still on pace for about a 6-WAR season. He's played about the equivalent of five full seasons over six years and nonetheless has a WAR7 of 39.7, where the average right fielder is at 42.1. I'm not worried yet.

As noted yesterday in connection with birthday boy Mike Trout's approach of Mickey Mantle for the 3rd-highest WAR7 among CF, I will have a JAWS-flavored look at some of the year's big gainers soon.
Mickey Callawin?
12:53
Should the Mets sign Joe Panik?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
Feels like the org has a good volume of Panik moves already.

Seriously, no, not unless they see something easily fixable in him that the Giants didn't. If Cano's done for the year, they still have McNeil for 2B, which should help clear up their outfield logjam, and ideally they eventually get Jed Lowrie back.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:55
If you haven't seen The Battered Bastards of Baseball, do put that on your list.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
Great movie but it's a documentary and I wasn't including those on my shortlist.
Ian Howard
12:56
Lynn earned another Gallows Pole as PitcherList would label it (most whiffs on the day) and I'm amazed he has been so effective this year. Looking at his K-BB% compared to 2017-18 is pure insanity. Looking at GB, FB, Hard Hit%, etc. I'm not seeing anything that stands out. What do you feel was the biggest step he has taken this year that has resulted in him being so much better than he ever has? Biggest thing I'm seeing is his FB has become much more effective. Curve is generating more whiffs this year, but wOBA/xwOBA on his curve is actually worse this year than it was last year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
Multiple Lynn questions in the queue. I haven't looked closely at him this season but Craig Edwards has, not once (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lance-lynn-al-pitcher-war-leader/) but twice (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/lance-lynn-is-now-a-cy-young-c...). Read those and stop by his chat, which begins in about an hour.
Matt W
12:57
Did you see that random reliever on the Rangers throwing 99mph cutters? I think his name is Clase? We are truly living in a golden age of velocity.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
I think Ben Clemens is writing about him (Emmanuel Clase) for tomorrow.
Dave
12:57
Who can stop the Dodgers in the NL? Themselves?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
Their bullpen.
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