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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/8/19

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Zach

12:58

Do the Rangers give Nick Solak a chance at 2B soon or continue to ride out Odor and his subpar performance for a 3rd straight year?

Jay Jaffe

12:59

I would think they start giving Solak a look soon, or at least get Danny Santana (whom I covered yesterday https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-unexpected-danny-santana-breakout/) more playing time at 2B. Odor has stunk on ice (73 wRC+) and I'm not sure how much longer they should live with it.

Jake, not from State Farm

12:59

If you could add Barry Bonds to the Hall but, in order to do so, you had to take someone out of the Hall, who would you pick? Would you go based on production (or lack thereof) with someone like Baines or would you go classic-Hall and choose based on character and take out someone like Ty Cobb?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

If I wanted to be feisty, I'd evict Cap Anson for his role in setting the so-called gentleman's agreement that created the color line, but if I'm sticking to performance, the obvious choice is Tommy McCarthy, a 19th century outfielder who has by far and away the lowest JAWS and is in only because he was an innovator (primarily the hit-and-run play and the outfield trap). He's got no business in there.

a ron sanchez

1:02

is aaron sanchez magically better in Houston or is Seattle just really bad?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

You may have noticed that Houston has done very well in helping its pitching acquisitions tap into their strengths. Cole, Verlander, Pressley, etc. Now Sanchez. I don't expect him to throw no-hitters the rest of the way but it seems entirely possible his remixed repertoire is just what the doctor ordered.

Dale

1:05

Will Scherzer be able to make enough starts this year to earn his 4th Cy Young?

Jay Jaffe

1:08

Over the past few seasons we've seen Cy Young voter penalize Kershaw, Sale, and Bauer for missing time. Not out of the question it could happen to Scherzer, but if he's back soon and continues to pitch well, he's got a shot. It helps that Hyun-Jin Ryu has missed a couple starts, too.

Matt

1:10

Yanks are (I think) 22 HRs behind the Twins with 48 games to go. Any chance they can reclaim their HR title this year?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

The gap is 21, and it's not inconceivable. Suppose the Yankees continue their same per-game clip (1.78 HR/g), they'd finish at 288. if the Twins, who have averaged 1.96 HR/g, slip to 1.31 per game the rest of the way (a 150-homer pace, which used to be pretty solid), they'd finish with 287.

Ryan

1:13

If you could select one current GM to run your favorite team, whom would you choose?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

good question. This past trade deadline notwithstanding, I still marvel at the way Brian Cashman runs the Yankees, and I've watched him more closely than any GM for the entirety of his career. Theo Epstein, too. I'm pretty impressed by the likes of Luhnow and Friedman but both orgs have had some lapses that raise questions about how they manage.

Archer

1:17

Do you think power bats age better with the new ball? Meaning will we see more Cruz and Encarnacion-type players excelling in their late 30s as DHs?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

I don't think "the new ball" is going to be around forever. I expect we will continue to see MLB and Rawlings working towards a product that fits more comfortably into expectations for the 21st century game. I also think that our understanding of player aging and the current economic are going to continue to work against DH-type old players; they're not going to get $20M+ AAVs anymore

CFH

1:20

As players' are peaking younger and declining sooner, will there have to be a major shift in hall of fame standards work? Seven year peak WAR seems like it might not be a good indicator of stardom going forward

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Why wouldn't it be? If players are more likely to be productive at younger ages, the timing of their best seasons might change but they're still going to have to put up a volume of excellent ones.

Guys who become mediocre at 30 and disappear at 35 still aren't getting in

1:29

Also, look, i'm glad that voters and interested bystanders use JAWS, and that those of us invested in the institution's processes have tried to define standards, but we don't control the entire voting body, and aside from the basics (10 years minimum in the majors, retired at least 5 years, not banned for life) there are no official standards. It's all open to interpretation

The Baseball Bandit

1:30

How disappointing are the Phillies? For all the hype that they've built they are underachieving so hard

Jay Jaffe

1:35

Disappointing but let's not forget that their #2 starter is pitching through a bone spur that will need surgery, their bullpen has lost just about every key member to injury at some point, and they lost McCutchen and Herrera for the season by the beginning of June. That's a lot to overcome. Certainly fair to ding Harper for an underwhelming year and to be critical of the lack of a better 3-5 in the rotation to begin with, but a lot of this has just been bad luck.

Nate

1:35

Since you will have a HOF vote when all of today's active players are eligible, which players are you confident (barring scandal) you will be voting for?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

Trout, Pujols, Votto, Posey, Kershaw, Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, probably Sabathia... extending it to recently retired guys that I'll get to vote for, Ichiro, Beltre, Beltran, Utley, and Mauer.

Ben

1:38

Due to his age and play, is Gleyber on track to make the HOF? 22 years old, two All-Stars already, plays a position that doesn't have a ton of HOF representation.

Jay Jaffe

1:40

a player having success at that young an age has a much stronger chance of making the Hall than one who doesn't arrive until 23 or older. that said, Gleyber's defensive metrics are pretty unremarkable, and he's totaled just 5.4 bWAR in his two seasons, so I don't think we have anything beyond his early arrival that really suggest he's on his way

1:41

Also, with 22 honorees plus Derek Jeter awaiting election this winter, shortstop is well-represented in the Hall. The glaring omissions are 19th century guys, Dahlen and Glasscock, which is a contrast to the other positions.

Lerrapin Lou

1:42

Which is more likely--Kyle Hendricks finishes a career that more resembles Andy Messersmith/Mel Stottlemyre or a Hall of Fame pitcher?

Jay Jaffe

1:45

Considering the impact of injuries on those two pitchers' careers — neither had an age-34 season, and only Messersmith had an age-33 one — those aren't comps I'd make. Hendricks' lack of velo,d modest K%, and bWAR history (only in 2016 was he above 3.6 WAR) tells me there's no way he's winding up in the Hall, though

EARLE

1:46

in reference to Jake's Cobb question, have you read Charles Leerhsen's A Terrible Beauty? Cobb wasn't a choir boy by any stretch but it seems his current reputation as a virulent, violent racist is unfair. (and the result of the work of one particular reporter in the '60s)

Jay Jaffe

1:48

Yes, and I highly recommend the book. It has changed some of my thinking on Cobb, particularly when it comes to understanding the way that Al Stump's unflattering depictions have permeated the modern perception of him.

seattlecougar

1:49

Other than searching the Blog Search, is there a better way to view older blog posts about a player than the five most recent listed on their player page? Specifically for players with a ton of RotoGraphs content (e.g., Matthew Boyd) it would be really helpful to be able to click a "See More" link here to find additional content.

Jay Jaffe

1:51

FG/RG writers can see more when logged in but this feature has not been granted to the masses yet. Let's hope that it gets there though

pumpsie

1:51

You CAN have whoever you want in your HOF. Just make your own, or in my case, just follow yours. The one in Ohio is just a business, really, and could be bought and sold like a pizza franchise. I put far more stock in the JAWS HOF than the one that gets all the publicity.

Jay Jaffe

1:52

psssst, the one in Ohio is for football. I'm glad you enjoy JAWS, though! And I agree that one aspect that separates the Baseball Hall of Fame from the rest is that any fan who cares enough has his or her own personal pantheon. Wrote about that a bit in The Cooperstown Casebook.

Drew

1:53

Re: GMs: Theo seems like a good pick because of the World Series contenders he has built, but do the free agent signings (Heyward, Crawford, Darvish, Chatwood, Lugo etc.) give you pause? I'd let him run my team, but I'd keep a close eye on the big-ticket signings.

Jay Jaffe

1:54

yes, that's fair. Cashman's FAs haven't all come up roses (Ellsbury, woof) but he's done better since wresting control from the Tampa cabal

Hal

1:54

Do you think MLB should be thinking about ways to lower strikeouts, or would that involve too radical a change?

Jay Jaffe

1:56

I think it's worth experimenting with tweaking the strike zone and the mound height, which are time-honored ways of restoring the pitcher/hitter balance.

Adam

1:56

Is it possible that most of the Dodgers' playoff bullpen consists of just their extra starters? Depending on injury and innings limits, could we be looking at most of Urias, Gonsolin, May, Maeda, Hill, Stripling coming out of the pen?

Jay Jaffe

1:57

Some number of that group almost certainly will be throwing key relief innings, but you still have to consider that the Kenley Jansen of 2011-17 is probably not coming back, and that Pedro Baez has regressed.

1:58

OK folks, I'm out of time for today. Thanks for stopping by, and please join us in Boston if you're around tomorrow!

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