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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/8/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the first post-trade deadline edition of my Tuesday chats. I just published a piece on the Padres' loss of Joe Musgrove and their missed opportunities during their series with the Dodgers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/padres-lose-musgrove-and-let-slip-a-golden...
2:02
Yesterday I published a piece on the Diamondbacks' 7-22 slide (!) out of the playoff picture https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-diamondbacks-have-wilted-in-the-heat-o...
And now, on with the show...
Phil
2:03
Can you explain this Orioles broadcaster controversy? Don't they have a PR person to tell them they're going to be hammered over this? And an HR person to observe that Brown was just literally doing his job? They used to be bad and now they're good--it's not like that's some sort of company secret. I'm not just grumbling (though I am)--I really don't understand what they expected to happen.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
The Orioles have an idiot man-baby for an owner. Brown was reading a stat from the notes that the team prepared for that day's broadcast – they didn't need vetting from a PR person because no sane person would have thought such a tidbit about the team's improvement would have inflamed even the most idiotic man-baby.
Sadly, this is par for the course during the John Angelos era,. Check Britt Ghiroli's piece at The Athletic for more https://theathletic.com/4757354/2023/08/07/ghiroli-orioles-announcer-k...
Tim
2:06
Thoughts on Jake Bauers? I’m in a 14t H2H dynasty and picked him up to replace some power lost with the Jung injury. There isn’t much else that isn’t a platoon bat on the wire. Would a spec pickup on Everson Pereira be a better gamble?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
I can't speak to the specifics of your league but Bauers has made some adjustments and is absolutely punishing the ball on contact, with a 20.9% barrel rate and 50.4% hard-hit rate, not to mention a 114 wRC+. Yes, he's striking out a lot, but with Rizzo out, and with left field a void as well, he's likely to get at least a long-half platoon share of playing time going forward. I wouldn't expect a rookie to come up and do what he's doing, particularly while noting that Pereira's AA/AAA strikeout rates are almost as high as Bauers' MLB rate.
Phil
2:11
Starting to see HOF buzz about Utley. Is it petty of me, as a Red Sox fan, to find that kind of annoying? Pedroia was clearly the better player--Utley's only advantage was not getting spiked in the knee by Manny Machado and thus having a normal decline phase. . . I recognize I should be a more magnanimous person.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
I understand why you might be bummed about Pedroia not getting a clear shot at the Hall, but he was not *clearly* the better player. The bWAR components show that Utley was a better hitter over the course of the two careers, and much better in terms of fielding and baserunning.
2:13
2:14
It's a bummer that Pedroia's career ended the way that it did. It's also a bummer that the Phillies didn't know what they had in Utley and didn't play him regularly until he was 25. In an ideal world both would have gotten 10,000 PA and would be in Cooperstown in short order but alas, that's not the way it worked out
AdGraphs
2:14
Rather than beg for money with intrusive popup ads on every page, why not just increase the frequency/quality of the articles that you publish?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
Rather than complain about intrusive pop-up ads, which don't actually yield much revenue, why not pay for an ad-free membership which greatly improves the user experience AND allows us to pay for the writers, editors and other personnel who make this site great?
Johnnygentle45
2:16
Rank these Dodger prospects: Sheehan, Pepiot, Frasso, Ryan, Knack
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
you're not going to get a more enlightened answer out of me than you are from Eric Longenhagen's list, which has Pepiot 9th, Frasso 16th, Sheehan 17th, and so on https://blogs.fangraphs.com/los-angeles-dodgers-top-51-prospects-2023/
Guest
2:18
how important is ROY in HOF voting? like, did someone like Josh Jung go from 1/85 to 1/90 chances (or whatever) with his injury?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
It's not very important, certainly nowhere near that of an MVP or Cy Young award. Jung's odds are hurt more by missing six weeks than by missing out on the award.

I'm writing about his injury and the Rangers for tomorrow.
Steve
2:20
Jay,
Felix Bautista has been outstanding this season (Bref WAR = 3.2, ERA = 0.85, Saves = 30, IP = 52.2, SO = 102, WHIP = 0.854). Baltimore is 70 wins and 42 losses with a PWE of 63 W and 49 L. If things continue like this is Bautista a viable candidate for the cy young award, especially if the Os win the division? I think a reliever has not won it since 2003 (Eric Gagne). Normally, I am not a fan of a reliever winning that award because of the relatively small number of innings pitched, but with starters pitching fewer and fewer innings, why not?
Thanks,
Steve
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
A reliever might have a chance to win a Cy Young if there's no strong case to be made from among the starters, but that's not the situation this year. Gerrit Cole leads the AL in bWAR and is second in ERA, while Kevin Gausman leads in fWAR and FIP — and both will wind up considerably more valuable than Bautista
Alex J
2:24
Of the first year candidates on the 2024 Hall of Fame ballot, who do you think will be voted into the HoF in the first round? Also, do you think Joe Mauer will be voted into the HoF, and if so, what round is most likely?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
Adrian Beltré, with over 3,000 hits and over 400 homers, is a lock to get elected this winter, on the 2024 ballot. In my five-year outlook, I projected Mauer would be elected on the 2025 ballot, in part because it's crowded one as far as holdovers, with Helton and Wagner within striking distance and Sheffield in his final year of eligibility. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/big-comebacks-and-easy-calls-the-next-five...
emh1969
2:29
Have we over corrected in terms of how starting pitchers are treated? It was only 13 years ago that a 22 year old Clayton Kershaw threw over 200 innings and no one batted an eye. Nowadays, that would probably lead to multiple people getting fired.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
We haven't seen a pitcher 23 or younger throw 200 innings in a season since 2014, but I'm not sure that it's evidence that the industry overcorrected. Consider this list
2:32
Note that of this group, Kershaw is the last one who was still pitching well in his mid-30s. The rest besides Sabathia and Buehrle were either already in the glue factory or barely hanging on.

And even this analysis ignores how much harder pitchers of more recent vintage are throwing, which creates additional risk of arm injuries.
John B
2:33
Interested to hear your thoughts on how many future HOFrs does a team need to have on its roster to have a legit shot at the World Series.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
It's good to have great players, they increase your chances of winning, but there's no meaningful relationship between a simple tally of future Hall of Famers and World Series chances
Marz, The World
2:34
Do you not do replacement level killers for pitching?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
No, because i'd just be writing about 20 fifth-starter situations and good Lord, nobody needs that
Dertom
2:35
Is Trey Mancini cooked?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
Sadly that may be the case. That or he is in need of a significant overhaul of his swing in order to get him hitting the ball hard again and making more consistent contact. Which shouldn't be ruled out if he''s physically and mentally up to the task, but it's going to take some work.
Insert Witty Name Here
2:37
I know Hamels won’t make the HOF, but what are his comparisons to someone I thought he was very similar to in Johan Santana?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
Santana was the more dominant of the two, albeit in a shorter career. Better ERA+ by a wide margin (136 to 123), slightly higher strikeout rate. Very similar S-JAWS with very different shapes. Santana had a much higher peak (51.7/45.0/48.3), Hamels the higher career value (59.0/37.4/48.2) via the additional 673 innings. Both kept trying to come back such that the time between their final release/retirement and appearance on the ballot was shorter than usual. 2015/2018 for Santana, whose last MLB season was 2012; 2023/2026 for Hamels, whose last MLB season was 2020 (and just one game at that).
2:42
I'd consider voting for both, as neither would be that out of place in the Hall. Hamels should have gotten to 200 wins but for poor offensive support
Outmaniac
2:43
America's not ready to acknowledge that James Outman has a higher OPS than Elly De La Cruz
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
That's because America hasn't been paying attention. Outman has been walking almost twice as often as ELDC and has a 47-point advantage in OBP. But there's a big difference in terms of what Outman is doing as an age-26-season rookie and ELDC at age-21. The latter is the one to bet on for the long term.
A Boy Named Yu
2:45
Rizzo has been ok since he left, but Baez and Bryant have been disasters.  Who would have thought the Cubs made the right decision by not re-signing those guys?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
I would say Rizzo has been "just ok" too, even if you write off what we know about his current concussion-related situation. Those Cubs did their job by ending the 108-year streak, but they didn't wind up having much staying power. Right now i think the best active player from that team is... Jason Heyward.
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