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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/8/23
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Outmaniac
2:47
That's a lazy answer to the prospect question Jay. Sheehan has clearly surpassed Pepiot.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
Excuse me? Pepiot hasn't pitched in the majors this year but put up a 3.41 ERA (and 5.42 FIP) last year. Sheehan has a 5.63 ERA/5.15 FIP this year in about the same number of innings, with much worse strikeout and walk numbers. He's been available, and he's maybe arrived ahead of schedule, but both are visually 45 FV types who have work to do to survive in a major league rotation.
v2micca
2:52
Thanks for the reminder about the ad-free membership.  I have one, but I recently had to get my card re-issued and hadn't remembered to update my auto-membership renewal with the new payment information.  And screw those who complain about you wanting to be paid for your work.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
Thank you for your support!
A Boy Named Yu
2:52
Ohtani's team next year - you taking the Yankees/Dodgers/Cubs or the rest of the league?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
I would put the Dodgers and Giants 1 & 2 on my scorecard. I don't see the Yankees being able to convince him to come East particularly given the state of their roster and Steinbrenner's skittishness about paying, and I don't see the Mets as likely to convince him if they're sticking to their plan to retool
Dk
2:54
Yanks are 5.5 games out of a playoff spot and haven’t won three in a row since sweeping the woeful Royals in May. Is there any hope of a turnaround?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
The returns of Judge and Cortes are big positives that trump any deadline addition they could have made (except for the fantasy that they could trade for Ohtani). But I just think they have too many holes to fight through the traffic and reach a playoff spot
A Boy Named Yu
2:56
How many monitors do you use when working?  I have two at work but was forced to use only one the other day and it was maddening.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
I have one, a 27" monitor. Also have an adjacent TV for ballgames, and an iPhone that sometimes gets used to as a second monitor for social media or text/DMs so I don't have to keep switching windows.
Guest
2:57
I think Ha-Seong Kim has to be the Padres MVP (on a roster with Soto, Machado, Tatis and X).  Can you recall a more unlikely team MVP?  I don’t know what to compare this to.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
Kim has been something else! Outstanding defense and exceptional development as a hitter, at a time when practically everything else is falling apart around him. I can't say I have a working mental file of "preseason likelihood of winning team MVP for a sub-.500 club" to compare him to, though. I'm just glad it's working out for him because it bodes well for other KBO stars to come over
A Boy Named Yu
3:00
Had you included them earlier in the series, what positions would the Cubs have had replacement killers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
I think first base was the only one where they truly measured... down... to the standards for the RLKs. I made passing mention but didn't have the bandwidth to write a whole thing on them
Trader Jerry
3:01
What did you think of the Mariners trade of Seawald for what looks like 3 scrap pieces? Seems like getting one 50FV high minors or current young MLB player would of been better than throwing a bunch of 40FV guys at the wall and hoping on hits don't you think? Other teams seemed to do better with BP trades that only had a half season left of control over the 1.5 Paul had.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
Definitely the case of receiving quantity over quality but I don't know that there was a 50 FV prospect to be had for Sewald. Graveman, also with one year of control remaining, was the only reliever who netted a 50 FV prospect — and the Astros were a more motivated buyer.
J
3:04
With players like Miguel Cabrera and Greinke, sometimes having more future hall of famers is a straight up detriment to your WS chances too.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
Right. Just because we're counting future HOFers doesn't mean we're counting future HOFers in their primes.
Josh H
3:05
How annoyed should Twins fans be that mgmt stood pat at the trade deadline despite some rather obvious needs: relief arm(s) and, with apologies to J Luplow, a right handed OF that can hit LHP?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
I think there's good reason to be annoyed that a roster with so many holes went unfixed. They especially needed help in the outfield, with all three spots making my Replacement Level Killers list
Cito's Mustache
3:10
Hey Jay, thanks for doing this.  Big fan of your hof work.  What is up with Giolito?  Is he washed?  This year he maybe showed signs of life but is falling off a cliff again
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
Giolito's fastball velocity and shape have taken a significant step back. By Stuff+, he was at 109 in 2020 and 108 in '21 but has been at 85 and 83 in the past two seasons, respectively. His curveball is off as well.
3:12
I don't think the changes are irreversible but he needs an overhaul.
Bob
3:13
What percentage of decline is attributed in preseason projections for players in the minor leagues?  For example, is Karen Paris 23 projection 60% of what he did at A+ and small sample of AA during the 22 season?  I ask because the projections are all over the place for minor league players.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
You'd have to ask Dan
Marcus
3:13
It was said the Carlos Rodon contract (6 year / 162M) was the floor for an Aaron Nola extension during spring training. If Nola's season ends with a similar performance to what we've seen to date, how much money is it going to cost him? 5 years / 120M seems closer to reality now, but after last off season, maybe some recalibration is in order?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
Based on his current performance I'm not sure I see him getting more than four years, though I say that without having really peaked under the hood in search of something that can be fixed.
Casey
3:15
How do you see David Wright's candidacy playing out?  One and done?  Consistent totals on the 5-10% bubble?  Slow climb to a McGriff-like peak?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
a couple of years with token support and then falling off. He just doesn't have any real case other than What If.
3:16
From my five-year writeup:

With seven All-Star appearances and 50.1 WAR through his age-31 season (2014) — 11th among third basemen — Wright was on a path that conceivably could have carried him to Cooperstown, but spinal stenosis and other injuries derailed him and finally forced him into retirement in 2018. His 39.5 WAR peak score is short of the Hall standard (43.0), and his 1,777 hits leave him well short of 2,000. I wouldn’t be surprised if he sticks around a less crowded ballot than more recent short-career candidates such as Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, and Lance Berkman faced, but I wouldn’t expect him to reach critical mass.
v2micca
3:16
"Steinbrenner's skittishness about paying."  My god, we've crossed into the mirror universe, haven't we?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
We're in the Upside Down
Bob
3:18
Priester has looked atrocious since being called up..is this another pirate prospect miss?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
Do you always write off prospects based on less than 20 innings of big league work?
Colton
3:19
I have a couple friends that just re-opened the Dave Stieb HOF conversation. Are you pro-HOF for him or anti-HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
I'm for him, while acknowledging that his case stands out particularly due to the dearth of pitchers from the era who have been elected rather than as some electoral injustice; we should want more pitchers from the Stieb/Hershiser/Saberhagen group to get in. Wrote about him at length here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-born-in-the-fifties/
Guest
3:21
Do you think Betts will end up considered better than Trout overall, when it comes down to it? considering how Betts has played in recent years and how little Trout has, there's a world in which the WAR gap is small and Betts also has all those postseasons under his belt
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