JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/9/18

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/9/18

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Jay Jaffe

12:55

Sasquatch is angry and needs to go back into the woods

Humpty

12:55

Super loved your tweet about football the other day. I'm totally with you on it... at this stage in my existence, give me extra innings of the O's-ChiSox over any nfl nonsense.

Jay Jaffe

12:55

thanks! I seem to have touched a nerve

Football? They still play that sport with the concussions and the non-guaranteed contracts and the threatened suspe… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

ResumeMan

12:55

Any idea why Dan's chat page always stays on the "live chat" app for so long rather than reverting to a transcript almost immediately like the other chatters? I have some work-imposed technical headaches reading the "live" version most of the time, so I tend to wait till the chat is over and read the transcript.

Jay Jaffe

12:57

Converting the chat to transcript is a manual process done post-chat by the person in question. Maybe Dan expects the interns to do it for him? I don't think we have interns, btw. I'll show him your note.

Bork

12:57

BUT WHO WILL TAKE TRAVIS'S CHAT SLOT??

Jay Jaffe

12:58

we're going to tape a few very good dogs together until we figure out a better idea. He'll be hard to replace.

Bo

12:59

Harper out of the lineup today... How worried should Nationals fans be about the rest of the season?

Jay Jaffe

1:00

Regardless of Harper's knee, on a scale of 1-to-cracking-each-other's-skulls-open-and-feasting-on-the-goo-inside, I'd make sure to have a hammer and a spoon somewhere in the house, but it's not yet necessary to keep them in your pockets.

Pine Needles

1:00

Some friends and I were debating who is a more likely HoFer, Yadier or Mauer. JAWS makes it pretty clearly Mauer, do you agree with your metric?

Jay Jaffe

1:00

I think they'll both wind up there https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yadier-molinas-climb-towards-coopersto...

Russ

1:01

has any rookie top-25ish prospect ever had as terrible a season at the plate as scott kingery is this year? he's been beyond dreadful, and far worse than i expected him to be.

Jay Jaffe

1:02

Brandon Phillips comes to mind immediately, but there may be more. Phillips was #7 on Baseball America's list in 2003, when he went on to hit .208/.242/.311. Still had an excellent career, but he was also 22 years old at the time of his struggles, where Kingery is 24

Mark

1:05

Rosario, Swanson, Crawford, and Arcia were all top SS prospects who have disappointed to quite a degree. Which, if any, of these players is most likely to become somewhat close to what was expected?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

that's a better question for Eric and Kiley than it is for me. Of that group, I'm still highest on Swanson

Jake

1:07

Hey jay, how do u incorporate postseason success into your view of HOF? Furthermore, do you have Lance Berkman in with his high JAWS and postseason success?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

Postseason isn't something that can be quantified in the way that JAWS can, but it's certainly worth considering as part of the more subjective areas of a HOF case (which in my mind might account for at most 20-25% of a case).

Berkman is 20th in JAWS among LF, about 8 points off the standard. Even with good postseason numbers, I still think that he's shy. It's basically a moot point since he has "only" 1,905 hits and the voters haven't elected anyone with fewer than 2,000 from the post-1960 expansion era. There are at least half a dozen Rule of 2000 guys ahead of him that I'd advocate for before I'd think about pushing for Berkman. Grich, Utley, Allen, Minoso, Munson, plus Votto and Posey even if they don't get there b/c they're already ahead of the peak (WAR7) standards at their positions.

Chicken Sandwich

1:14

Is Joey Votto good anymore? 1 HR in his last 40 games, 8 XBH. Or, do we not care enough about power from him while he posts an almost .500 OBP?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Dude has a 136 wRC+ even while slugging .427 this year. The SLG isn't a great sign for the future, but you can put a 136 wRC+-ing 1B in my lineup any day without complaint.

Mattyb

1:15

What will the Mariners do with Felix? Phantom DL stint?

Jay Jaffe

1:17

a question I address in my forthcoming piece, which the editorial elves are currently varnishing. I'm told it will run at 1:30 pm ET

Oyster Burns

1:18

who is your favorite player to watch for purely aesthetics?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Not sure I can decide on just one. Among them: Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, Yasiel Puig when he's hot, Lorenzo Cain, Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Bartolo, Beltre.

Mike

1:20

Knee jerk reaction to the HOF Mauer comment is hell no.

Jay Jaffe

1:22

yeesh, what are you, a Twins fan?

Wrote this about Mauer a few months ago. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joe-mauer-and-the-rule-of-2000/

cm

1:22

Re: Trout and comeback after Hall of Fame. It almost happened with Jim Palmer. He was in the Hall when he went to Spring Training with the Orioles. He ended up realizing he didn't still have it though.

Humpty

1:22

Mauer for HOF? I have to disagree. Hall of very good? Yes. I'll be very surprised if he makes Cooperstown tho.

John

1:23

Any thoughts on Sam Miller's recent piece that maybe 200 wins is the new 300?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

Haven't read it but I have something in the works as 200 pertains to Verlander et al.

Anonymous

1:23

Is Bumgarner a HOF-er?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

No. Obviously, he's got postseason credentials for days but his JAWS is just 31.4 right now, 243rd among SP. He has just one 5.0 bWAR season to his credit, and his fastball is declining. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml

Bo

1:26

How has Anibal Sanchez found such success this year? Is he doing anything different?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

I haven't looked closely — might be worth investigating — but I'd assume that health is a big reason for his rebound

Scott

1:27

Joey Votto or JD Martinez, who's the smarter hitter?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Votto, but I'm impressed the extent to which Martinez has revamped his game over the past 5 years.

Mike

1:28

With Miller back and the bullpen appearing to be stabilized, does Cleveland fit in with the AL superpowers (Boston, NY, Houston) or are they still a few steps below?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

they're below that top tier, but i guess we'll see to what extent come October.

PD

1:29

Miguel Tejada was 24 and had a 74 +wRC and -0.5 WAR.

Jay Jaffe

1:30

Another good one for the Kingery/Phillips question. Tejada was BA's #6 prospect when he struggled with a cup of coffee in 1997 and then #10 entering the aforementioned season.

Oyster Burns

1:31

would you be more concerned about andujar's obp or glove?

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