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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/1/20
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BD
2:40
Do you think Steve Cohen will spend like crazy on FA with the Mets- or rather, invest in improving operations and systems?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
If the sale goes through (never count those chickens), I can't see him going nuts spending — without Betts, this is going to be a pretty mediocre crop of free agents this winter, with Realmuto the head of the class — but it will feel like Christmas just leaving the Wilpon era behind. I imagine he'll remake the organization somewhat, but any owner would do that.
Enrique
2:43
Did his boneheaded move and his subsequent boneheaded cover-up of his boneheaded move substantially impact Clevinger's value and the number of teams interested in considering him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
Maybe ruled him out for a few teams on principle, but as the length of his option stint wasn't long enough to affect his service clock, probably not substantial hit in terms of value. I just don't think that there were teams dangling blue-chip prospects at anyone this year.
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins
2:45
Maybe Eric could speak to this better, but Trammell getting traded twice already seems like whatever the opposite of a ringing endorsement is.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
My impression is that Trammell is a polarizing prospect because he hasn't developed the in-game power some hoped for, which caps his ceiling.
Marko from Tropoja
2:47
Who’s more likely to end up in the HOF: Sale or deGrom?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
deGrom. Cy Youngs and health > no Cy Youngs and TJ
2:52
Seriously, it took until John Smoltz' election in 2015 for there to be a pitcher who had undegone TJ to be elected and I don't think there's been a second yet. Of the active pitchers on the way — Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke — none has had it, though Verlander's forearm injury is an ominous sign that he may eventually need it; at least he's basically clinched a berth and has said he wants to pitch well into his 40s
PhilDiggety
2:52
Why are most backup catchers nowadays named Austin?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
They were cloned in a laboratory
Will
2:52
When playoff time comes around, which pitchers are the dodgers relying on to get to the WS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
All of them. Gonsolin or Urias out of of the bullpen while Kershaw, Buehler, May and the other one from that pair starts.
2:55
their bullpen is looking rather deep these days. Jansen, McGee and Treinin are back to being effective, and Dylan Floro and Caleb Ferguson have turned into useful pieces
Derek
2:55
From Craig's winners/losers writeup: "Tampa Bay traded away a player (José Martínez) who they traded for in the last year so they could get more playing time for a player they also acquired (Randy Arozarena) in the same trade as the one that netted them the player they traded away." Not sure you could write a more Rays-y sentence.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
indeed.
comish4lif
2:55
Jay - what does the postponement of some of the era votes from the BBHOF mean to Doc Adams' case?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
It means that a guy who has been dead for 121 years will have to wait yet another year. Honestly, I don't think it's nearly as big a deal as the risk that comes with making a 70- or 80-something candidate who's still alive wait a year.
pakkap
2:58
given his control issues to start the year (yes, sss, but still), have may (and gonsolin?) caught up to urias in the dodgers SP race?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
I'd say May has moved ahead of Urias in the pecking order, and Gonsolin is the hot hand who potentially could, but it's also a little easy to take Urias for granted because he's been around for so long and because, let's face it, he's a whole lot less fun to consider in the wake of his DV suspension
John
3:00
Is Villar going to be a bench guy for Toronto?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
He'll probably play shortstop until Bichette returns, and then could either become a multiposition regular spotting all over the place or take over third base, where Travis Shaw has struggled, or second, with Biggio moving into the outfield when the matchup makes sense. I'd expect he'll be a more or  less everyday player unless his production craters.
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins
3:05
Which tier would you put Buxton in with that OF question above?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
atop the list without hesitation, even given the high variance.
Jazz
3:06
How confident are you in Kris Bryant bouncing back to his normal levels of production and that his poor play early was a result of his injury?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
So long as they don't rush him back, which they don't seem inclined to do, pretty confident.
Armadillofury
3:06
Do you find what Cleveland did with Plesac to be cynical?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
no. he f'd up royally, then kept digging deeper until he further embarrassed himself. If his teammates are as angry at him (and Clevinger) as has been reported, then it's important to show that management has their backs, and that taking the protocols seriously is of utmost importance.
Zach Plesac needs to grow the hell up
Armadillofury
3:09
Is Victor Reyes on the verge of a breakout?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
Maybe. Statcast has his xBA at .306 and xSLG at .475 where his actual numbers are .282/.427, so there may be some positive regression ahead. That said, his rolling-50 numbers are heading in the wrong direction
3:12
His 4-for-4 the other day helped keep the Tigers off the left field Replacement Level Killers list, for which I'm grateful
Rick
3:13
Reds, Mets, Marlins: Which team's deadline moves did you like best, and which has the best chance to make the playoffs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
I liked the Marlins' addition of Marte best, though in trading Villar and Smith it's not like they got off scot-free.  The Mets dealt in volume, and I can see (and wrote about) the potential upside but I'd still rather have added Bradley to the bullpen instead of Castro.
Kimi
3:16
Am I overstating it when I say Winker's upside is Freddie Freeman?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
I'd say so. Winker can clearly hit, but he's a butcher defensively, and he's already 27. By the time Freeman was 27 he was a 2x All-Star who had gotten MVP votes in three seasons and signed a nine-figure deal.
Guest
3:19
Will Jonathan Loaisiga ever get a chance to start?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
Possibly. The Yankees really like him, and they've got Tanaka, Paxton, and Happ reaching free agency this winter. Garcia is clearly ahead of Loaisiga, and I know they like King and Schmidt too, but they could consider him either as a starter or as a guy who becomes a late-game arm
Aging DHs
3:21
What kind of scenarios need to occur for these players to have a fighting Hall of Fame chance:
  • Nelson Cruz
  • Edwin Encarnacion
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