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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/1/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
Cruz: time machine to start MLB career earlier (didn't get 400 PA in a season until age 28) and to avoid Biogenesis involvement and subsequent suspension.
Encarnacion: time machine to convince voters that somehow Don Baylor,  Hal McRae and Chili Davis should also be in the Hall
3:26
Realistically, we're talking about two guys with less than 40 career bWAR, where Ortiz (who isn't JAWS approved) has 55 plus a raft of postseason accomplishments and a personal note of exoneration from Manfred regarding his appearance on the 2003 survey test list
Sporer-tzball
3:27
Jay what is best way to see a team WRC+ broken down by LHP VS RHP?
AvatarJay Jaffe
ladies and gents, the Splits Leaderboard!
guest
3:27
Is it fairly normal for a RHP who moves to the Yankees to have their HR/9 spike a bit because LH batters can take advantage of the RF porch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
I haven't studied it but it's a plausible theory
Haley
3:29
Do you think the Dodgers made a wise decision not adding any SP in light of Buehler's blister issues and Kershaw's recurring back problems?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
Not only didn't they add, they subtracted Stripling. I think they must feel pretty confident that Alex Wood can help, and that they can turn to somebody like Mitch White, Josiah Gray, or Dennis Santana to fill in for a spell if need be
bighen
3:31
any idea if there is a cut off date for a Covid opt-in?  like if the Mets are likely to qualify for postseason, can Stroman opt back in a few days beforehand?  with the caveats aside that he likely wouldn't be ready etc.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
"Players must be on a club's roster by Sept. 15 in order to be eligible for postseason play."
3:32
jeez, seeing that question re: Stroman and the Dodgers' question side by side, I kind of wonder if David Price is throwing somewhere.
Total spitballing by me, that. I know nothing on the subject
City
3:33
Sabathia is far better than Hamels for sure.  But he probably could have been even better if he at least attempted to take care of his body before he retired.  Did he get a total pass for that in NY?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
No, and it think it's a bullshit line of thinking.
3:34
Sabathia had periods in NYY where he lost weight and he felt he didn't have the same kind of power as a pitcher
Maybe it didn't help that he was battling alcoholism during that but jeez, that's a deeper question given the extent to which that's an illness with hereditary factors as well as environmental ones
3:35
And if you saw what that guy went through with regards to his knees late in his career, the regular injections of the synthetic lubricant... he got nearly 3,600 innings out of that body. Find me the pitchers today who are going to do that.
Pumpsie Green
3:36
If the Yankees are trying to subvert Happ's option, as he suggested, does that give us an indication about their spending plans for next year? Will they go big or stay home?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
Happ has a 4.81 ERA and 5.32 FIP over the past two seasons. it's not "subverting" an option if you decide he's not one of your five best starting pitchers based on that performance and potential going forward.
Trout Enthusiast
3:37
More disappointing front office:  Rockies or Angels
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
Rockies. So many holes, so little done.
Pumpsie Green
3:38
Miami called Villar 'reckless' on his way out of town (even though he didn't actually leave town, as the Jays are in Miami). Did they mean reckless in baseball or reckless at pandemic living?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:38
I wondered about that one myself, but as he wasn't one of the players who got sick, i can't put a whole lot of stock in it.
Pumpsie Green
3:38
Loved the replacement killers series! Looked like a lot of work - thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
Thank you, sir! It was a ton of work but I enjoyed it and the response it gets every year
WinTwins0410
3:39
Is the HoF run by a bunch of idiots, is it just plain cruel, or both? They jerked around Santo and Miller so long that both were posthumously inducted. Kaat/Oliva/Allen's average age is 81 (the less likely Wills is 87). And they’ll delay the Golden Days Era Committee vote by another year and then delay all other Era committees by a year after that? All because Golden Days committee members can’t learn to use Zoom? This behavior makes me lose all faith in the Hall’s credibility as an institution. They clearly just make up rules as they go along. What if, in Dec 2021, there’s no vaccine? Do they defer the Golden Days vote yet again? Golden Days vets really are being screwed here. Already the committee convenes only every 5 years. Now, it’ll be six years, and then it’s not like there's a "catch-up" later. By 2026, some more candidates likely won't be alive. I know the Hall's job isn't to manage candidates' feelings but still, it's unkind, and punitive. Why drag it out further? Are they cruel? Or idiots?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:42
I don't think the Hall is run by idiots. they were well ahead of the curve in canceling Induction Weekend despite the minimal impact of COVID-19 locally and the knowledge it would be a huge economic kick in the groin to the region. I do think that not figuring out a way to do virtual voting was the wrong move but I also wonder if they figured that even by using a higher-security platform than off-the-shelf Zoom, each voter would need a devoted IT person, and that suddenly expanded the cone of trust beyond their comfort levels
3:43
I think they should have gone ahead with the Golden Days vote, which still has living candidates. Don't think it matters much when the Early Baseball vote happens since everyone is dead. Also think they could have waited until next spring to do the voting – it used to happen in February, back when I began covering it
Derek
3:43
One comment I saw about starling Marte post-trade was that his $12 mil option wasn’t likely to be picked Up given state of baseball finances.  Do you think that’s true and how many similar options are likely to be declined?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:45
The Diamondbacks, who often thrown nickels around like they're manhole covers, may not have been willing to pick up Marte's $12 million option, and maybe the Marlins won't given their tendency towards penury, but somebody will — that's a 3-4 win player easily
Andrew
3:45
Noticed the dodgers' world series chances increased yesterday on fangraphs by ~1.5% despite their only move being trading away Stripling. Any reason for this?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:45
Might have something to do with teams like the Dbacks and Brewers taking steps backwards through shedding/inaction
Grand Admiral Braun
3:46
Craig Kimbrel's HoF chances?  Over/under 50%
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:47
They've fallen off the table in the past two seasons given a 7.53 ERA in 28.2 innings. Wrote this for the 2018 World Series and he hasn't gotten anywhere since https://blogs.fangraphs.com/world-series-offers-rare-meeting-of-potent...
jb
3:47
  • dear mr jaffe, nice talking to you, after following your work for several years first at si and now here. do you see any chances now that there no new Jersey numbers between 0 and 99 are left we expand our horizon and will be able to see triple-digit numbers in MLB like let's say in Cricket the great Chris Gayle with his 333
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:47
let us hope!
WinTwins0410
3:48
Jay, thanks for the very thoughtful response on the Golden Days Committee -- and thanks as always for doing these chats.  Always super enjoy your willingness to interact with all of us!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:48
Thanks! I'm upset about the cancellation and resulting anger — I feel it too — but I do understand the concerns.
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