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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/10/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
The guys gaining momentum will continue to do so. I don't see somebody like Rollins suddenly getting elevated to election; at best he could be like Hudson, Buehrle, and Hunter last year, getting enough votes to stick around for at least one more ballot.
Rick
2:39
What always has aggravated me is when HOF voters not putting in players until after they die. Ron Santo as a prime example for me. No one would have been more excited to get into the Hall as him. I really think some voters and/or players didn't like his enthusiasm thinking it was something else.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
Santo famously rubbed a lot of New York writers the wrong way with his celebratory antics c. 1969. They carried a grudge that hurt him on the writers' ballot. That he didn't get in before passing away was a tragedy that probably has less to do with the ignorance of the Vet Committees that considered him than the petty grudges.
Guest
2:41
Does it seem weird to you that the likenesses on the HoF plaques have not improved, considering that we seem to generally be able to reproduce everything almost perfectly?  I wouldn't recognize Jeter from his plaque, Walker got Caminiti on his plaque, and the Simmons plaque looks more like a current likeness than from his playing days.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
It's really all over the map, even among candidates from the same year. Some bear an uncanny resemblance, others... not so much.
Guest
2:43
Mariners seem to be the surprise of the year but still aren’t being talked about as Such. With there killer farm system and drafts recent years, wouldn’t you think they would get more written about them?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
The Mariners suffer from playing a good percentage of their games after the rest of the country has gone to bed, and from having a largely unknown cast because of their proximity to a long stretch of losing. I think they're a team on the rise but it's going to take making the playoffs and getting the spotlight for people to really notice them
Dave
2:45
If Bryce Harper never wins a playoff series in his career, do his regular season numbers get him into Cooperstown?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
It worked for Ernie Banks, and Ted Williams...
2:47
it's going to depend how good Harper's numbers are. If he's a borderline guy, not having a playoff series win obviously won't help him, but I don't know that it's going to be fatal. If he's got great individual numbers, he'll be fine
Josh
2:47
Pete Alonso has been great this year. Any idea what happened to the opposite field power? If you look at his spray chart from 19 he hit a ton of homers to deep right center, he doesn't have any of those this year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
I suspect the new baseball hasn't helped Alonso, even given his massive power, and that he's being pitched more carefully — but I'd have to look more closely
Who Me
2:50
Does FG intend to update the graduations from the Board in the near future?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
Eric typically keeps on top of that stuff, updating when a guy exhausts his rookie status. I know he had some travel recently so maybe he's behind. If there's somebody specific, I can ask him.
MIke Ortman
2:51
I'm loving that Marvin Miller finally went in, just to right that wrong.  (If baseball is about winning like Jeter said, Miller belongs more than most.)  But secondarily, I love that he goes in as a "Contributor", correct?  So then let's get Buck O'Neil in and let's Flood the Hall with Curt Flood, as Contributors.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
Miller is in the Executive group based on the Hall's classification.
2:56
I don't disagree about putting O'Neil and Flood in, by the way.
Dave
2:56
I've heard a few people say Jeter's plaque looks unrealistic, but I actually think it's one of the better ones I've seen
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
Mike
2:57
Any thoughts on who the next POBO will be for the Mets? I can get why working for an owner who tweets as much as Cohen can be tough but he should also reasonably be willing to spend.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
I've also seen Billy Beane mentioned but I can't see Beane coming in below Alderson.
TomBruno23
2:58
My buddy, let's call him Bodie, likes to point out that Ted Simmons' WAR/162 is similar to Jose Reyes. What can I tell him in response? Thank you in advance.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
WAR/162 is a stat that can make for some odd bedfellows. Simmons spent the last 3 years of his career getting about 2 PA per game, often pinch-hitting, and that drags a player's WAR/162 down.
3:01
Simmons might be undervalued based on what's captured in catcher WAR from the pre-pitch framing era, as well.
Jose Reyes isn't getting into the Hall without a ticket.
Travis
3:01
Is there a link to/easy way to see percentage of Hall of Famers for age they debuted at? Obviously starting young helps, but I am having difficulty locating that statistic anywhere. Curious to see the trend lines for that one.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
You need a Stathead account to search it easily. Here's pitchers https://stathead.com/tiny/9dEk8
3:08
and position players https://stathead.com/tiny/k95vS
Scorcher
3:08
What does Paul Goldschmidt need to do from here on out to give himself a chance at the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
HGOT
3:09
Curious how you settled on a 7-year peak for JAWs.  Was it something like approximately half of a very good player's average career?  (I think it is a good pick, I'm just curious how you got there).
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
Trial and error. i began by using best-five-consecutive as peak, with allowances for injuries and military service, but determining that stuff was labor-intensive. Best-10 gave answers that at the time were too similar to using career WAR. Best-7 hit a nice middle ground. Mind you, all of this was done using BP's WARP, with a lower replacement level than WAR currently uses; I haven't gone back to test whether 8 is more satisfactory than 7 or anything like that, in an attempt to keep the metric simple. Believe it or not people still ask if the 5-year definition applies to peak, and it hasn't been that way since 2012!
Harmon Ripkowski
3:11
Loved your book.  With Minoso's NNL numbers pushing him past 2000 hits, who do you think will be the next player with fewer than 2000 to get in the HOF?  Oliva or Allen?  Or more likely an Utley, Posey, et al.?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
Oliva or Allen because they've come close and will likely get two shots before Posey gets two, and because it will take awhile for Utley to gather momentum.
TomBruno23
3:12
You ever read Roger Angell's old stuff? I am in the middle of Five Seasons now, his words are still the best.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
I've read all of Angell's books — but some not in 30-plus years. The Summer Game is an all-time favorite and the one from which I've gotten the most mileage, whereas I probably should revisit his 1980s work more.
Dansby SwanSong
3:13
Loved the Donald Fehr speech for Marvin Miller.  I learned things about Miller that increased my admiration for him as a person and as a leader of the MLBPA.  He truly changed baseball and should have been elected while still alive.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
I thought the speech made good points but was a bit overlong. I don't support the boorish Jeter fans who started jeering near the end, however. I do wish Fehr had addressed the elephant in the room regarding the Miller family not participating. I don't know that going into the blow-by-blow was necessary, but explaining why the players wanted this honor for him so badly was.
Jon
3:15
Are the Blue Jays AL wild card contender with the best chance to do damage in the playoffs?  Deep lineup, deep rotation, a couple of good bullpen arms.
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