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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/10/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
They do look a lot stronger than the Yankees or Red Sox right now., that's for sure. Not sure I want to face them.
Harmon Ripkowski
3:16
Oh, and who do you think will be the first of the PED guys that gets into the Hall?  My buddy says McGwire if LaRussa has any say, but even tho I think it'll be veterans commitee, it's gonna be Bonds or Clemens, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
Ortiz will get in via the writers, maybe not first ballot (he won't be on my ballot because of his low WAR) but soon enough. It's gonna look ridiculous having him in but Bonds — who was never suspended, either — outside, because Bonds was 10x the player Ortiz was.
Pat
3:17
So the Mets have been burned by 2 different guys off the Theo Epstein tree so their response is to hire Theo Epstein?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
I think you've hit on something that could and perhaps should be a real obstacle to hiring Epstein, in that the culture he's fostered within the organizations he's led has featured some real negatives that have been overshadowed by the championships.
3:22
The Mets, more than most teams, need to think long and hard about that kind of stuff given that they keep stepping on rakes
Ed H
3:22
What are your thoughts on opening up the HOF to international ´players, similar to how the NBA HOF is run?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
It's the National Baseball Hall of Fame, it doesn't cover what happened in Japan or Cuba or South Korea. Those levels aren't considered major league, and those countries have their own Halls.
Joel
3:24
Do you see Kyle Lewis having a George Springer like career? Great center fielder who misses a fair number of games due to injury.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
Lewis has missed much more time due to injuries. he's 25 and has one professional season with more than 363 PA so far; Springer had three by that point.
Jose
3:28
If Felix Hernandez makes a comeback, what would he have to do to have a shot at the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
Probably needs either a bunch of league-average seasons or at least a couple All-Star ones, neither of which is happening.
MIke Ortman
3:28
What's the average number of HOFers in the league at any given time?  At the most I can count 40 right now.  From the Pujols, Cabrera, Kerhshaw, Verlander obvious choices down to the super early guesses like Acuna, Soto, Tatis group.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
1.5 per team per year is a reasonable estimate once you include committee guys, so if you're getting to 40 you're certainly in the ballpark.
Dr. Teeth
3:29
Apologies if you've discussed this elsewhere, but are there components to JAWS that are award based or popularity based? I get the career WAR and peak components but we often talk of Cy, MVP, All-Star, Triple Crowns when we talk of HOF candidates too
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
Those things aren't in JAWS, but they're certainly germane to a player's Hall of Fame case. how much weight to accord those subjective decisions is a subjective decision itself.
TomBruno23
3:30
Season Ticket, covering 1982-1987, is still my favorite and I get to it once every few years since it is and will always be right in my Golden Era of MLB.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
Yeah i think that one is first on my list to revist. I've got, conservatively speaking, about two dozen books to get through for the first time before I'd feel justified in going there
Jeff in T.O.
3:31
"the elephant in the room regarding the Miller family not participating" ????
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
Miller explicitly told the Hall to stop considering him for election, and they ignored that request, both before and after his death. His family said both before and after he died that they would honor his wishes.
3:33
I understand his frustrations and I struggle with reconciling that desire with his spot in baseball history. Ultimately, I come down on the side of including him to ensure that his story gets told. His presence in the Hall is a giant middle finger at the small men who tried to break the players' union and who got their asses handed to them by him time after time.
Didace
3:34
There is no NBA hall of fame. It is a basketball hall of fame.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:34
a very good point. It's designed to be more all-encompassing.
John B
3:34
jay, would any of your conclusions on HOF worthy players change if you toggled between bwar and FWAR?  If so, who and how do you think about those gaps?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
I don't like career pitching fWAR because at some point, you have to give the pitchers credit for outpitching their peripherals. Even pitching RA9 fails to account for some factors that are included in bWAR, namely differing quality of defensive support and differing quality of opponents. On the hitters' side, UZR wasn't built for the era of defensive shifting.
3:38
I've had discussions about doing some testing on fWAR/JAWS to see where the biggest differences are, and i do incorporate fWAR into my work on contemporary catchers because it includes pitch framing, while the version of DRS used in bWAR does not.
Guest
3:38
Next year for Yankees, Rizzoli or Voit at 1B?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
I assume you mean Rizzo. The fact that the Yankees kept Voit, and that he's hit more like himself in the second half (138 wRC+) suggests that he's going to be the first baseman net year.
Deb
3:39
What does Vlad Jr need to do to overtake Ohtani for MVP?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:40
strike out 150 or so hitters.
Guest
3:40
does Barry Bonds' domestic violence issues cost him any votes, or are writers solely looking it at as PEDs or not?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:45
I haven't seen any voters justify their non-support of him on the basis of DV-related allegations. I'm not saying that's the wrong way to go about it, but if you start pulling on that particular thread, you're bringing the DV allegations of Manny, Andruw Jones, Sammy Sosa, and Omar Vizquel into the equation as well. That's not to say that their incidents are all equal by any means; some have been more thoroughly reported than others.
Deb
3:45
LOL. In the realm of realism though, if he wins the triple crown and the Blue Jays make the playoffs, do you think that would persuade enough voters?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:46
Other guys have won Triple Crowns. Literally nobody in 100 years has done what Ohtani is doing. Even Vlad Jr. will tell you he'd vote for Ohtani.
BettsBellingerCaruso
3:46
Scherzer vs Buehler. Who starts the WC?

And also: How f%@#$cking amazing would be a game 163 between the Dodgers-Giants
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:48
If Buehler's last start is an indication that he's running low on gas, then I'd go Scherzer, who has looked incredible lately. But ask me again in two weeks and I might have a different answer.
John
3:48
No question, just a note to say thank you especially for the extensive and great work you do relating to the Hall of Fame and all its honorees, past, present, and prospectively future.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:48
Thank you!
Guest
3:48
what non-baseball stuff do you like doing in cooperstown? or are you usually so consumed with work you don't get much time outside the hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:50
other than hanging out with a couple local friends there I don't get to do much. I've still never been to Ommegang or any of the non-baseball museums and this was my 8th trip there! For me it's like being on the lunar surface, where my time is extremely limited and the downtime is minimal. My last two trips to the Hall have clocked in at a cumulative two hours and 30 minutes, and this was the first time in four induction weekends I was even able to find time to tour the museum.
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