Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/15/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:00
Good afternoon, folks! After a couple weeks of scheduling conflicts, this chat is back, baby.
12:01
I've got a piece in the editorial pipeline regarding the two leagues' Cy Young races. The consensus points to Misiorowski and Schilttler, and the impressions may be locked in, but their statistical edges aren't as clear-cut as you might think.
12:05
The Red Sox have continued to deal with center field issues, with Eli White — who had done a decent job replacing Ceddanne Rafaela — landing on the IL with a right foot ligament injury
12:07
(sorry, dealing with editorial queries)
puddle
12:08
Obviously tiny sample size and a .499 xwOBA won't hold, but Josue De Paula's 35% BB-rate, 0% K-rate, and 94.8 avg exit velo is kind of bonkers for a 21 year old who jumped straight from AA. Watching him spit on 3-2 splitters and sliders to take the walk makes me really understand what scouts meant by "advanced approach." What the heck are the Dodgers going to do with him the playoffs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
That's a good question. When I wrote about Teoscar, I included a bit about De Paula and Ohtani's injury. I think JDP is auditioning for the big-bat-off-the-bench role that's probably been vacated by Dalton Rushing with his latest elbow issue — a rip when Miguel Rojas comes up in a higher-leverage situation, perhaps. Teo is so hot that I can't see sitting him in favor of the kid, and they're both lousy defenders, but presumably Ohtani will be back to fill the DH role
12:12
That home run, wow
Guru
12:12
Cam Schlittler mvp?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
Eh, by our numbers his 5.9 WAR trails Bobby Witt Jr. (6.5) and Yordano Alvarez (6.0), whose Triple Crown chances appear to have taken a hit. bWAR has Schilttler ahead 7.1 to 6.3 to 5.8. I think it takes a lot of inertia to overcome the rationale/prejudice that favors position players in MVP races even when a pitcher has the WAR edge. I don't have a strong feeling about any of them
ThisIsBob
12:16
PCA HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
LOL, it's a bit early for that but 9.3 bWAR is certainly going to provide a boost to his JAWS down the road. But as Alex Bregman — who has never approached his 8.9 WAR from his age-25 season — one year doesn't elevate a Hall case by itself.
Jeremy Fox
12:17
Is the race for the last 3 AL playoff spots the most boring close playoff race of all time? It has all the hallmarks of an exciting race--a bunch of teams all bunched together, some of whom will be playing each other over the final couple of weeks. But they're all barely .500 teams and so it's just so hard to care. It's like watching an Olympic swimming heat with three elite swimmers and the five senior citizens who swim laps at your local Y every morning.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
It's interesting but not tremendously compelling except for what it says about the 6-team format being a bridge too far. The hater in me would love it if a sub-.500 team made it because that might ruffle enough feathers to have a larger discussion about this current system.
war2d2
12:19
Hey Jay! I had brought up to Ben yesterday that the Cubs had both the most position-player fWAR and the least pitcher fWAR. Which made me think about What’s the worst pitching staff that went the farthest in the playoffs that you can remember? BBRef makes searching for this easier, and I was able to find a couple pretty good numbers, namely the 1993 Phil’s’ pitchers only amassed 12.7 bWAR and the 2024 Rangers’ pitchers had 10.1 bWAR. Both, of course, blow away the Cubs’ current total of 5.8 pitching bWAR as a team.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
Wow. Offhand I can't think of better/worse examples but those are some interesting precedents. The Phillies did have Curt Schilling, who had a 4.07 ERA that year but was very strong in the postseason at least. The 2023 Rangers (which I believe is who you meant based on their championship and WAR total) had the impressive October contributions of Jordan Montgomery.
kingkash7788
12:24
It would be hilarious if Vlad wins another gold glove, but I think he's the current frontrunner
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
yeah Vladito has the edge in both DRS (11, first in the AL) and FRV (6, tied for first with Christian Walker). Just a good-field, no-hit kid these days.
drplantwrench
12:26
what are the rules about Stan Kroenke influencing decisions this winter for the Angels before the sale is official? i'd imagine he'd want to hit the ground running, but can he do anything by say, december?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
as I understand it, incoming owners whose approval is pending — but who have everything else buttoned up — are allowed to have input in hiring decisions
Phillip Denny
12:28
Guardians/Blue Jays/Rangers are fighting for the final playoff spot - who you got?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
Guardians, I think. Edge in starting pitching thanks to Messick and Williams.
tomsteele
12:30
which Cardinals catcher is the most exciting?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
Ted Simmons.
maximus74
12:31
2006 cardinals had 6.2 bWAR
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
The less said about the 2006 Cardinals, the better. Some of us break out in hives.
daml91
12:32
Do you buy this version of the Dodgers' being more vulnerable heading into the postseason than the last two iterations? I think I might have the Brewers as the favorite out of the NL at this point.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
My refrain last year was "not with that bullpen" but the Sasaki move helped mitigate that. I'm not sure they can pull the same rabbit out of a hat twice, and I'd be a lot more worried about Ohtani and Freeman. So yes, I think it's fair to view them as more vulnerable.
Baseball Learner
12:34
Do you think Gerrit Cole can return to elite status? I think he needs another pitch to throw at lefties, and neither the cutter nor the changeup have ever quite gotten the job done. Maybe he just needs to live in the zone a little less and accept some walks to get some chase?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Cole looked great for awhile but has been vulnerable to the longball lately. I wonder if post-TJ fatigue is the big driver there but statistically, he's got a huge problem this year in that his curveball has been lousy, with a .618 SLG against, compared to sub-.300 in 2023-24, and its whiff rate is down to 19.8%. If he fixes that, he'll probably be fine, but I don't expect him to snatch the mantle of Yankees ace away from Schlittler.
12:39
I do think it's probably time for Cole to hunt for another weapon as well, and it wouldn't surprise me if he and the Yankees find one. They're very good at that sort of thing
drplantwrench
12:39
follow up - what about input on free agents or international signings? can kroenke make a splash in those?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
Again, he's allowed to have input even without approval. Whether the new regime can convince international free agents that the franchise that squandered Trout and Ohtani is the one where they'll find glory is... another matter.
Matt Mancuso
12:41
Is there a good, recommended sequel to "Lords of The Realm"?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
Howard Bryant's Juicing the Game wasn't as funny but it was a pretty good follow-up in surveying the landscape and seizing on leadership's blindness to the PED problem. That book is now 21 years old itself, meaning about double the distance as there was between LOTR and Juicing
JustinPBG
12:44
Are we about to have a FIP/luck argument about Cease? I think Cam has had the most important ability, availability
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
As noted within, Cease has edges of less than .1 in FIP and xERA over Schlittler. As for the availability quip, they're nearly dead even in innings per start, with the gap between the two coming down to one 15-day IL stint for Cease. That might well be enough to swing the race but I don't think it tells us that one pitcher is definitively more durable than the other; practically any starter could find reason to go on the 15-day IL in any given season at one point or another; some gut it out, some don't.
Phillip Denny
12:49
Is this the worst FA class in recent memory? Corollary, does the relative weakness of the FA class relate to the impending labor dispute?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Beyond Skubal it's rather weak, but I haven't measured it definitively and I'm not sure anyone has. Some of that might be because of previous decisions that pre-empted the possible 2027 lockout but those are more likely to happen with shorter-term deals where opt-outs are possible, and those are still more likely driven by the immediate ability to grab that bag.
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