Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/15/26
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crob16
12:52
How real do you view the Rays as a threat to win it all this year? Projections going in to the season had them quite low and they have seemed to continue to over perform as it goes on. Is any of this real or is it just smoke and mirrors?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
it certainly feels like we're overdue for a deep Rays run; they haven't won a series since 2020. They've significantly overachieved in terms of preseason projections and relative to Pythag/BaseRuns, and neither their pitching nor their lineup appear tremendously impressive on paper, so to me it feels like there's some smoke and mirrors involved. But we'll see
war2d2
12:57
I did mean the 2023 Rangers. My copy editor has been sacked.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
Speaking of copy-editing confessions, Matt Martell gently pointed out to me I had four variants on the Yankees ace in today's filing, which, yikes:

Schlittler
Schlitler
Schittler
Schiltter
12:58
I missed a step in my usual process, whereas I caught the diacritic in Sánchez before dragging the thing into WordPress.
pdunes
12:59
As good as PCA has been this year, Mike Trout had about 5 of those seasons.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
To further the point, Trout had 47.5 bWAR through his age-24 season, the highest of any position player (Ty Cobb 46.5 is second). PCA is at 17.4, and while he has almost two weeks left, my math says he probably won't catch up.
kingkash7788
1:02
has there ever been an example of a player leading the league in both offensive runs and defensive runs on fg?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
Offhand I don't know. Willie Mays 1962 almost gets there, assuming we're keeping AL and NL separate. 58.7 runs offense (1st), 20.0 defense, 0.1 behind Leo Cardenas for first.
mragbayani
1:06
If Pete gets to 500 HRs (he's at 299 at 31, and would need 28 a year for 7 more years), is he a HOFer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
obviously, you mean Alonso and not Crow-Armstrong. Assuming Giancarlo Stanton doesn't get up off the mat to add another 44 homers to his total, I think Kyle Schwarber (384 homers) is going to be the one to press the issue on whether 500 homers and a PED-free reputation is enough, damn the WAR/JAWS.
1:10
Alonso has just 27.2 bWAR through his age-31 season  and has never reached 4.5, though he's a threat this year (4.1). His defensive metrics have improved over last year but he'll be DH-bound at some point. He'll need very very good staying power
maximus74
1:11
did Kyle Tucker see JDP coming and say "oh shit i better start hitting"
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
Maybe it was the road trip? Tucker has a 127 wRC+ away from Dodger Stadium (.266/.362/.464) but just 63 at home (.187/.287/.285) and nobody has figured out why. But his defense will probably ward off a JDP challenge unless there's a pitcher against whom he has particularly bad matchup numbers or something.
Fun-Hating Dork
1:13
Don't blame you on Schlittler; as someone who has questionable eyesight, those L's and T's all blend together. It's "Sch<blur>er".
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
yeah, it's an on-screen visual thing. "eligibility"  — a word I type about 5-10x as often as most baseball writers i'd guess due to my HOF coverage — is another one where I'm a mess, all those dotted i's and lowercase l's and such.
riceball
1:16
which of the three headed dragons of the AL West would you rather be in 2028, ignoring whatever is currently going on right now. they all kinda seem cooked both now and going forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:19
Houston's farm system is second-to-last in our rankings on The Board, where Seattle is 14th and Texas19th. Houston also has the highest payroll commitment for 2028 ($79 million to Seattle's $76 million and Texas' $54 million) but those are all middle-tier. I'm not sure whom I'd favor at this point except that the Rangers strike me as a sleeping giant, financially.
Phillip Denny
1:20
When Shohei and Pages return, there will be a legit post season roster crunch. One of JDP, Call, Keekay, Rojas, Tucker will need to be left off (assuming 14 position players and 12 pitchers). If they run 13/13 then two will need to be left off.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
you're right, the numbers are probably working against De Paula there. Call might be the guy on the bubble, with his defense rendered redundant by Kiké
1:23
Ok folks, time for me to trundle off. Heading to Citi Field for some baseball from the cheap seats tonight. We should be back at this next week. Thanks for stoping by!
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