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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/17/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
Simmons is toast in this context With a 72 wRC+ over the past three seasons, he's not going to be anybody's first choice for a starting job. Strasburg's odds are a lot longer given that he's just lost two seasons, but he's got long-term security in his favor. Likewise Rendon. Both will keep getting chances from the teams that are paying them, and it's not unreasonable to think that if they're healthy, the talent is still there.
Pat
2:49
Hey Jay, am a big fan of your writing! Who do you personally think will get the 2 AL WC spots, and who would you have winning?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
Thank you for the kind words. Right now I think the Blue Jays are going to be one of the teams and that it's a coin toss between the Red Sox and Yankees for the other. Any of those three teams has the capability of winning if they're able to deploy their ace (Ray, Sale, Cole) but it may take using that guy just to get the spot, so who the hell knows?
Ned Ryerson
2:50
Any chance Wainwright can put together a couple good years to get into the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
how many weeks in a row have we done this one?
I think it's very unlikely
Mason Bateman
2:51
What do you think is the best possible playoff format with the league as it currently stands? (30 teams, 6 divisions, etc.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
I like the idea that's been floated to go KBO style with the Wild Card, require the lower-seeded team to win two games to advance but the higher-seeded team to win only one game.
David
2:53
looking at the WAR leaderboards both here and at baseball ref it looks like there might not be any one with 7+ position player WAR this year.  Is the lack of great hitting seasons this year unusual? And is it just a fluke?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
The Blue Jays might have two by bWAR — Vladito (6.1 currently) and Semien (6.8), plus Correa's at 6.3 and Tatis at 6.6 — those guys are like a big day or two from getting to 7.
Corbin Burnes
2:54
Do you think Chase Utley deserves a plaque, and do you think he will get one?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
I think he's definitely worthy, but his late start, modest counting stats and reliance upon defensive stats will make him a tougher sell for voters. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/utleys-chase-for-cooperstown/
Guest
2:56
The active second baseman with the greatest Hall of Fame odds is ___.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
Altuve, but I'd put his odds at maybe about 30-40%
barney gumble
2:56
at what point does Gleyber Torres run out of road? he's struggled mightily for a while, and the Yankees can't afford to have him clog up the middle infield next year, particularly if they go for one of the free agent shortstops.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
Well, they just moved him to second base as an acknowledgement of what the rest of us knew — he's not a shortstop and there are about to be a whole bunch of good ones on the market. I think he's probably got only a limited time to bounce back after two years of struggles, though. If the Yankees sign a shortstop, they'll have to figure out how to fit LeMahieu, Torres, and Urshela in the lineup; it's malpractice to sell so low on a guy who hit 38 homers at age 22, and even Urshela's coming off a down season, so it will be interesting to see how they play this.
Maddoning
3:00
Can you think of another healthy player that has dropped off as much as Cody Bellinger?  What is really going on there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
Either he injured his shoulder and leg and has had trouble getting right since then, like many players before him, or he woke up one morning and forgot how to hit. Which do you think it is?
Roberta's Piazza
3:02
Purely on the field - Kevin Brown or Curt Schilling for HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
purely on the field, it's obviously Schilling and it's not particularly close. I look forward to leaving him off my ballot nonetheless.
Ben
3:03
If someone came back from the future and told you that eventually a member of the 2016 Cubs gets into the HoF, who would be your best guess? Rizzo? Bryant? Zobrist? Baez? Joe Nathan? Jon Lester? Kyle Hendricks?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
Bryant, who's already banked some of the major building blocks of a Hall case, namely the MVP award and a championship ring (plus the Rookie of the Year award). He's also the only one currently playing at a star level.
Roberta's Piazza
3:05
How would you compare Julio Urias' most likely outcome now to what it was six years ago?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
I think it's pretty miraculous that he's become the pitcher the Dodgers hoped that he would given his precociousness and the severity of his shoulder injury. He's still only in his age-24 season and he's on the fringes of a Cy Young race, crowded out by two of his current teammates.
Roberta's Piazza
3:08
What player's JAWS score is the furthest away from their actual HOF worthiness?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
Lou Brock. The holder of the single-season and career stolen bases records at the time he retired, a monster in 3 World Series, and a guy who was ahead of his time in studying pitcher motions. He's short of 40 JAWS and just 37th among left fielders; rough defense is part of that. Still, I don't know how you could keep him out of Cooperstown given his impact. More here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-lou-brock-1939-2000-base-thief...
Trent
3:11
Are the Mariners playoff hopes for this year gone or do they still have an outside shot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
Our odds give them a 0.9% chance. Unless they do something like go 14-2 I think they're in real trouble
Tommy
3:12
How do you rank the sushi and tempura? Which had more value/dollar?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
The sushi was a good value. The tempura didn't travel well — some restaurants smartly cut small holes in the packaging so that it doesn't keep steaming itself and become soggy in transit. This one did not, so it was not so great. The next time I have a tempura craving I'll go for the restaurant that I know does better with delivering it
Joshua
3:15
Does King Felix have a shot at a career revival? If so where do you see that happening?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
highly doubtful given his trends, and it's not as though he looked like a world-beater in spring training last year
Konrad
3:16
Jarred Kelenic has been making frequent adjustments to his batting stance, sometimes during the game. Do you see him maybe over the off-season finding some consistency with his mechanics and having a breakout 2022?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
I think he has a lot of work to do this winter, but that the talent is still worth betting on.
Ben
3:17
Is there an easy way on Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs to see a player's WAR by position (Like Stan Musial at 1B vs. OF or Frank Thomas at DH vs. 1B)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
Alas, no way that I know that provides WAR splits like that on a career basis.
Nate
3:19
How is Paul Goldschmidt's HOF case looking to you after this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
he's making some progress but has a long way to go. Wrote a graf about him here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-pitchers-and-some-more-position-play...
Robin Ventura
3:19
Any serious HOF consideration for me?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
Struck down by the Rule of 2,000 and a large crowd of better 3B.
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