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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/17/21
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DJ
3:21
Do you think the Brewers will move starters like Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer to a bullpen role during the playoffs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
absolutely. I don't think there's any team that has done a better job of preparing its pitchers to be flexible in roles, and to take advantage of matchups, than the Brewers has. That should make them fun to watch in October. Go in and get outs.
3:24
Speaking of Lauer, Luke Hooper just wrote about him in that context https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-lauers-emergence-gives-the-brewers-oc...
WinTwins0410
3:24
Jay, congratulations on resolving to do a Cooperstown Casebook update. I’m curious what an update might look like. I am sure you’ll continue to champion at least some of the seven remaining guys’ candidacies you touted in the first edition who haven’t yet gotten in — at least those of Andruw Jones, Dick Allen, Minnie Minoso, Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich and perhaps David Ortiz? (I don’t see a new book championing Curt Schilling, though; you didn’t vote for him this past year!). In an update, will there be any new candidates for whom you’ll make cases for induction? Dwight Evans? Kenny Lofton? Luis Tiant? Curt Flood? Dave Stieb? Bret Saberhagen? David Cone? Kevin Brown? Others?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
If I do get to do a second book I'll view it as more of a sequel than an update, I think. I can only fit so much into a book and don't expect to sell somebody the same collection of essays twice, though I'd imagine that all of the ones I covered at length in the first book will get some kind of epilogue. I think the position players you mention would be some of the ones I'd cover at length (I did a Lofton chapter that ended up on the cutting room floor). I'm less sure about the pitchers beyond Tiant and maybe Brown, because individually none of them has very strong cases — but the topic of starting pitching could use some deeper thinking.
Guest
3:29
not everyone reads these chats every week, or reads everything you write!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
(this is re: Wainwright). I get that, and I appreciate that there's lots of interest. I did cover him in the HOF article that I linked for the Goldschmidt answer. Short answer: "Maybe he has it in him to stick around for another 20 wins [now 17] to get to 200, but he might not even crack the top 100 in JAWS while doing so."
mookie magic
3:31
what do you think ends up happening with scherzer this offseason? his comments after his 3000K game about hoping to be kershaw's teammate when he gets to 3000 sure make it sound like he wants to stay in LA, and granted he won't be as otherwordly as he has been since the trade because nobody's that good but it seems like he's making quite the case that the dodgers should try and get that done.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
I saw that quote and my eyes just about jumped out of my head. I would have to think the Dodgers saw that as well
3:34
I think they'll work to keep him if that interest is genuine. Between re-signing Kershaw and figuring out what happens with Bauer — whom I suspect will get a lenghthy suspension and free up some money —  they've got a lot of balls in the air, though.
Nate
3:34
Why so low on Altuve's HOF chances?  It feels like he has the "fame" part with a MVP and World Series and his counting stats seem to be in good shape through age 31.  Do you see him not aging well or do you think his accomplishments-to-date are a bit light?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
injury risk and second baseman aging patterns. He missed a lot of time from 2018-20 and wasn't always himself when he was playing. Can his bat carry him as a DH if he loses another step in the field?
James Phelan
3:37
What do you think of Xander Boegarts future as a short stop- does being a Boras player factor in at all to him moving to 3rd or 2nd?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
I think it's tough to envision him as a shortstop long-term given his multiseason metrics. Wrote about it here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/xander-bogaerts-hot-bat-and-cold-glove/. We'll see what happens next year, but I suspect even the Red Sox have to be thinking about it.
Bill
3:39
How did you earn the right to vote for the HOF?  Why is the vote anonymous?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:42
It takes 10 years of continuous membership in the BBWAA to get a Hall of Fame vote. The voting isn't anonymous — a voter can check a box and agree to have his/her ballot published on the BBWAA site a couple weeks after the results are announced, and the vast majority of voters not only do, but also share their ballots (and sometimes their thought process) with their readers. Only somebody who doesn't want to reveal his/her ballot can keep it anonymous
Cube Jockey
3:42
Are there any eligible pitchers whose HOF numbers are either greatly helped or hurt by their batting stats?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:50
Wes Ferrell, a likely Early Baseball Era Committee candidate, gets a huge bump from offense (~12 WAR), https://stathead.com/tiny/VIEuQ while Bobby Mathews, a 19th century guy with 297 wins (but just a 104 ERA+, and a pretty meh case for my money) takes about a 7-WAR hit. https://stathead.com/tiny/wURf2
Pat
3:46
What am I missing about this Brown/Schilling thing not being close?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:49
Whoops, got the order jumlbed. Schilling, a high-strikeout pitcher, is 28th in JAWS, 2.3 points above the standard. Brown, who struck out about 700 fewer guys in a similar innings total, is 52nd, about 6 points below the standard. Sticking to what's on the field, Schilling burnished his credentials with a very strong postseason showing, where Brown was pretty mediocre in October.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:50
Sorry, had to thread some answers there
Pat
3:51
McGriff is a good example to me of how arbitrary the whole voting process is. The guy hit 493 HRs. Does anyone seriously doubt that if he had managed to hit 7 more that he'd be in? He probably would have gotten in first ballot if he did that. 7 more HRs.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:52
Quite possibly but it's also worth noting that McGriff was also somewhat one-dimensional as a player and doesn't get any traction from WAR/JAWS, which has obviously helped some candidates' causes lately
Joshua
3:52
Who do you think is the starting shortstop for the Nats next year? Mike Rizzo is someone who continuously tries to compete, and he definitely went after MLB ready prospects (Ruiz, Gray, Adams, Thompson, Thomas) at the deadline this year. I would love to see them go after Correa, but I think Trevor Story makes a ton of sense. Thanks.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:53
Story or Semien might make the most sense for them because I don't see them as the team likely to write the biggest check for a shortstop this winter.
barney gumble
3:54
as awful a guy as he is, do you think leaving schilling off the ballet opens up a can of worms in regards to the HOF now factoring in a player's personal life? or would we have have to face this issue regardless as domestic violence guys come onto the ballet?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:55
If the Hall is going to leave the character clause as is, I don't see how they can stop voters from considering things that illustrate far more serious issues about a player's character than what happens between the lines.
Mr. Burrito
3:56
Kenley Jansen: Potential HOF candidate or Hall of the Very Good?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:57
I think he needs a few more good years to get to the Hall but I don't know if he has it in him
Ben
3:57
According to DRS, Trea Turner is the better shortstop, but UZR thinks Corey Seager is better. Do you think the Dodgers agree with UZR that Seager is better there or did they just move Turner to 2B out of loyalty to Seager?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:57
i think it had a lot to do with Turner having major league experience at 2B and CF
3:58
ok folks, wow, I'm out of time.
Thanks so much for stopping by today. Have a great week!
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