JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/23

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/23

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Mr Redlegs

2:47

I'm a little confused on the 3-way tiebreaker possibilities. My understanding was that if the Reds tied the Dbacks and the Cubs for a spot the Reds would win because of head to head records against both, but that's not how you have it. Can you clarify?

Jay Jaffe

2:48

Oh, it looks like I may have goofed in untangling a larger scenario in yesterday's piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/more-like-team-un-tropy-right/)

2:49

Here's what I wrote:

"Suppose for example that the Phillies claim a spot, the Giants fade out of the picture, and the other four teams wind up tied for two spots. In that case, the Marlins (11–7, .611) would have the advantage over the Reds (14–12, .538), Diamondbacks (10–9, .526) and Cubs (9–16, .360) in terms of head-to-head records and would get one Wild Card spot."

That part is right, but this is wrong:

"Instead of continuing with that pecking order, however, the other three teams would be re-ranked as follows: Diamondbacks (8–5, .615), Reds (11–9, .550), Cubs (7–12, .368)."

2:50

You're right in that because the Reds have winning records against both of the other teams, they win that one without tweezing out the win%

Will update, thanks and apologies for the confusion.

Brian Snitker

2:50

It's hard to out-hit a September staff ERA of around 6, even for these Braves' bats. How big of a problem is the pitching staff going into the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe

2:54

I recommend not dwelling too much on September stats too much. The Braves will be able to throw a rested Strider, Fried, Elder, and Morton at opponents, and that's a pretty strong front four. I might be a bit more concerned about the Braves' bullpen; the team may indeed be more vulnerable than they've looked for most of the season.

Sox Fan

2:54

Could the Sox trade Verdugo for a SP? I'd be interested in Tommy Edman too: elite defensive 2B and speed on the basepaths = two things we're missing

Jay Jaffe

2:55

I don't think you're going to get anything on the scale of Edman for Verdugo, and not just because the former has two years of club control remaining, the latter one.

Teams are well aware of Verdugo's lapses at this point. His stock is down.

KC Pain

2:56

What do you think of end of year pitcher rookies? Sawyer Long, Boyle, etc. Other teams just worn out and dont put stock in it or breakout?

Jay Jaffe

2:57

Are you asking me to call 10 MLB innings from Gipson-Long and three from Boyle a breakout?

TomBruno23

2:58

Watched Long Gone Summer last weekend to commemorate the 25th anniversary of 62. Good to see your smiling face as one of the honored interviewees!

Jay Jaffe

2:59

Thanks! Wrote about that 30 for 30 and the ground it covered here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/long-gone-summer-refuses-to-bury-mcgwire-s...

Guest

2:59

What happens when the new St. Pete stadium opens and Rays fans still don't show up?

Jay Jaffe

2:59

They launch a nonsensical pitch to get a stadium built in Montreal to play in for half the season?

AL Central Casting

3:00

Ketel Marte: finally healthy again or outlier year? Is this a level of performance we can expect going forward (assuming health)?

Jay Jaffe

3:03

Marte has shown himself to be a very volatile player, with star-level odd-numbered seasons and league-average even-numbered ones in a pattern that goes back to 2018. He's totaled 4.8 WAR in the evens (2018, 20, 22) and 12.3 in the odds, and even if you make allowances for the pandemic, the gap is striking and seems to be driven a fair bit by BABIP. Probably worth a closer look — maybe I'll write about him.

Marshall

3:04

If Mookie wanted to maximize WAR, which position would he play?

Jay Jaffe

3:05

If you believe the small-sample metrics (and I would caution against that) then second base is probably where he could sustain above-average defense, whereas I think he's decent/passable/sometimes spectacular at shortstop

Lance

3:05

Injuries aside do you have any concerns about Cody Bellinger in 2024? I picked him as a flyer for this year and have gone from “well maybe he can…” to “wow he’s back!”.

Jay Jaffe

3:06

He's another volatile player and a relentless tinkerer with his mechanics, so I'd worry about sustaining this level, but I do think the upside is there

KC Pain

3:06

Is Bobby Witt Jr doomed to be the AL Central version of Mike Trout?

Jay Jaffe

3:07

That presumes the Royals can even pretend to contend, and boy howdy for as much as the Angels are a mess they've at least sort of done that-ish for most of Trout's run

Birds

3:09

All the HOF focus is (for good reason) about who gets in, but I'm really curious about the guys who will never get in, but manage to stick around on the ballot - the Torii Hunters and Mark Buehrles. Have you looked at what makes those sort of players? Like, will Bartolo Colon hang around on the ballot? Adam Jones? Curious what you know about the topic.

Jay Jaffe

3:11

So much of who lingers on the ballot is about who else is on it — Johan Santana and Kenny Lofton had better careers than the guys you note but they arrived during incredible crunches for space on the ballot, not only in terms of pure talent but also the PED-created logjam that caused the likes of Bonds, Clemens and others to linger where they would have otherwise been elected easily.

3:12

I can see Colon hanging around because of his bulk career numbers (no pun intended) and cult status but that seems less likely for Jones.

Mike

3:13

Have you ever thought about updating and doing a new Cooperstown Casebook. If I remember correctly from the book, the guys who had the highest JAWS and weren’t currently enshrined have all been elected except Bobby Grich, Dick Allen, Andruw Jones, and Schilling. Maybe once they are all elected but it’s a wonderful book and I just wanted to know from the source if an updated one was coming eventually.

Jay Jaffe

3:13

(re-running this one with the full question since I didn't see it before)

I've thought about it a lot and haven't ruled it out, but it's... complicated to say the least. The publishing industry has changed a lot since 2017, when that book came out

3:14

The book is officially out of print, however, and there are no plans to print more copies, so if you're trying to score one, best of luck (I have a few on hand for those who wish to purchase signed ones — hit me up on social media)

Preller

3:14

Sorry, accidentally hit send too early. What has AJ Preller done wrong over the past couple of years? It seems a lot more bad luck than bad team building, unless there's a chemistry issue I'm missing. Otherwise, his worst moves are in the distant past (Hosmer).

Jay Jaffe

3:16

Based on what I read in The Athletic piece that ran today (https://theathletic.com/4874799/2023/09/19/san-diego-padres-disaster-s...) and that my wife stayed up into the wee hours editing, Preller seems to be a better evaluator of talent than people-manager. His style is to outwork, outwork, outwork without adjusting to evolving circumstances, and that's not necessarily one that wears well

The current team does seem to be lacking in situational hitting, but it doesn't help that guys like Machado and Bogaerts have been at much less than 100% due to injuries.

Max

3:17

Any idea why for the last two years Bregman can't hit lefties after destroying them his first few years?

Jay Jaffe

3:17

Maybe he needs to know what's coming?

3:19

I say that with tongue only partially in cheek. Bregman has never been as good overall as he was in 2018-19 (not 2017, notably). 137-107 split in wRC+ over the past three years, tilted towards righties. Worth a closer look at some point.

Gary

3:20

How do you feel about Smokey Joe Wood as a high peak, short career candidate for the Hall of Fame? Outside of a single start and two relief appearances in Cleveland he’s got a 1.99 ERA and 146 ERA+

Jay Jaffe

3:21

very interesting career as an elite pitcher and then, post-injury, an OK part-time outfielder, but it's not like he was racking up value in the latter phase (6.7 WAR in 460 games spread over five seasons). I don't see enough to merit election

Offseason's Comin'

3:22

What's the status of/your current opinion of the offseason FA market for SP? Asking as a Reds fan desperate for the club to sign someone, who is aware of the Reds <ahem> frugality <ugh>, and worried that without a ton of top names, other teams with a bit more willingness to spend will outbid each other for mid-tier arms that the Reds would normally try and scoop up.

Related note - J. Urias can shove rocks.

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