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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
The market will also have Blake Snell off a possible Cy Young win, Aaron Nola off a meh season, Sonny Gray, Kershaw, Giolito, Montgomery, Flaherty, Maeda, and possible opt-outs from Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez. There's a lot of options to do... something, but some of them are higher risk than others.
Nate
3:24
If Adam Wainwright doesn't get hurt and has seasons in 2011-2012 that mirrored the two years before and after them (let's say he even wins a CYA), would that 6 year run be enough to seriously consider him for the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
It certainly keeps him on the conversation longer, but we're talking about a guy who would have ~52 WAR instead of ~41. that would barely crack the top 100 in terms of career WAR and would probably be somewhere around 48 JAWS, Hamels-Santana-Hudson territory.
bringbackpologrounds
3:28
Thoughts on incorporating some of the newer defensive metrics into JAWS? BB-Ref's dWAR based on DRS seems to be getting phased out.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
Where do you see them phasing it out?
3:29
also you're probably misunderstanding dWAR
3:30
which is the sum of whatever defensive metric is being used (Total Zone through 2002, DRS thereafter) plus the positional adjustment
I'm not opposed to integrating newer defensive metrics into JAWS if they're doing it as part of their defensive component (they've already done it before) but I'm not homebrewing something to replace publicly available metrics
Kurupt FM
3:31
Seems like a season with 0 200 inning SP is coming down the pipe in the near future. Do you think this a point of no return? Will it ever swing in the other direction again?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
Remember last year when everybody was turning cartwheels over how good Sandy Alcantara's 228-inning season was?
3:32
his performance has taken a step back and he's got a strained flexor, so that's not a great advertisement for an outlying workload. I don't see the trend in workload reductions reversing without wholesale changes in the way pitchers are managed.
manfred mess band
3:33
It’s pretty clever of mlb to buy Rawlings to control the ball. Do you think it’s in Manfred’s best interest to juice and kill the ball depending on upcoming free agent classes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
I don't think MLB is nearly that capable of pulling off such a conspiracy, sorry.
3:34
Ok folks, time for me to get along. Thanks so much for stopping by today and for bearing with the rocky beginnings of this week's chat. Take care!
oops, i'll allow the follow-up here
bringbackpologrounds
3:34
I've just read that newer stats such as OAA and its derivatives are better for evaluating defense than DRS, which is still the main component for bWAR.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
to be clear: if B-Ref integrates OAA into WAR, I will be happy to use it, just as I'm happy to use our WAR, which uses OAA as the range component for UZR (not replacing UZR entirely) in calculating value.
ok, that's it.
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