JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/20/18

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Jay Jaffe

12:59

I bet there's some kind of rule change in the next CBA. Maybe the addition of a few active spots for September games. I don't get the sense this is very high on the priority list, though it does pertain to the larger issue of service time.

Dan the Mets Fan

12:59

Who do you advise for a catcher starved team this offseason: Grandal or Ramos?

Jay Jaffe

1:01

Grandal is more than a year younger, much more durable and a better defender.

Lou

1:02

I wanted to explain to a "fire Dave Roberts" coworker of mine the concept of reverse splits so I looked up Puig on Fangraphs and to my surprise he has one at-bat as a LHH against a LHP. Is this a mistake?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

Saw that, and yes, I believe so. It doesn't show up on the B-Ref splits, which suggests it's a bit of bad data that we have not filtered out.

Bread Gardner

1:03

What do the Yankees do with Gardner after the season?

Jay Jaffe

1:07

Picking up his $12.5 million option would seem to be a no-brainer because even with this year's offensive struggles, he's been a 2+ WAR player. He's now a 10/5 guy, though, so he can block any trade that's not to his liking. With Stanton, Judge, Hicks and Frazier, I think the Yankees probably work hard to figure out a way to deal him somewhere he's willing to go.

Guest

1:08

Does Mike Trout finish his career with th emost 2nd place MVP finishes of all time?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

He's already at 3 and I think the record is 4, shared by Ted Williams and Stan Musial,. With a possible runner-up finish this year, yeah, I think this is one record Trout might claim eventually.

Zihuatanejo

1:09

Building on the PED question, can you imagine *any* scenario in which the HoF would remove an already-enshrined player?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

I think gambling allegations on a Rose/Shoeless Joe level would do it, if it were connected to a modern player as opoosed to, say, more evidence in connection to the Ty Cobb/Tris Speaker allegations, which date to pre-Black Sox days (barely).

stever20

1:13

If I told you back in June that Kershaw would have more innings pitched on September 20 than Sale, would you ever have believed it?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

Yes, because Sale was so gassed late last year.

Stevil

1:14

Do you think Machado lands with a club willing to play him at SS, or is he truly destined to be a third baseman?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

My guess is that question is centered around the Yankees, who could plausibly add him at 3B and consider moving Andujar (whose defensive metrics at 3B are dreadful) to 1B or trading him. I can't see, like, the Indians coming up with the kind of dough it would take, and then keeping Ramirez at 2B and Lindor at SS, because they'll eventually have to pay the latter too. Otherwise I think he signs somewhere as a shortstop

Pio

1:18

There are 4-5 potential Hall of Famers available in FA this winter. Has there ever been an offseason like that before?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

Well, there's an offseason article idea. The first free agent class in the winter of 1976-77 had Reggie, McCovey, Fingers, Dick Allen and Bobby Grich. I'd have to look to see if others had similar.

jack

1:19

What kind of production can we expect from Rafael Devers at his peak? This is not a good season for him, and finished to be benched. But he's 21. What do you expect from him long term?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

Devers has dealt with so many injuries this year that it's tough to get a read on him. His defensive metrics are lousy and he's got a lot of swing-and-miss. At the same time, he's just 21. I think he'll be fine in the long run, maybe not star level but solid. It's worth asking Dan Szymborski for some projections though

JACK

1:21

Will Kenley Jansen be good, as usual, in 2019 or are there serious concerns about his health?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

Knowing what we know, and that he's headed for offseason surgery, I'm willing to bet on a bounceback, perhaps not to his peak levels but still a star caliber closer.

Josiah

1:23

Rockies just did the one thing they could not afford to do: get swept. Chatter around Rockie internet land is that its time to trade Arenado. What say you?

Jay Jaffe

1:25

I honestly don't get the thinking. They can't build an outfield for shit, and have some terrible contracts, but they have a wonderful nucleus of young pitching, plus one of the best left-side infields in the game. If they can't find a way to keep up Arenado, it's time for the Monforts to sell.

Yankees

1:26

Speaking of that, what about Andujar to LF (plus signing Machado)? His problem at 3B is mostly range, which would remain an issue at 1B.

Jay Jaffe

1:28

Left field in Yankee Stadium is huge, which is why the Yankees have used a CF-caliber defender there in Gardner. I don't see Andujar as able to pull that off. I also see his footwork as the bigger problem than range, and maybe that mitigates with a move.

Spiggy

1:28

How many of the articles that appear on Fangraphs originate from chat ideas? What's your best guess at the percent?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

I have no idea. For me, it might be 10% — one every couple of weeks.

Roman Numeral Three

1:29

What's the modern standard for relievers getting elected to the HOF? After Mariano gets on the ballot, I can't think of a single active reliever that would get past the first year of voting. Is this an issue with the hyper specialization of the position, or an issue with lofty career requirements for induction?

Jay Jaffe

1:31

The standards still aren't all that clear because the relievers who have been elected largely reflect the evolution of the role. I don't see anybody getting in via the writers after Mariano for a long time, but Lee Smith is probably gonna get in via committee. After that, who the hell knows? Might be waiting around to see if Kimbrel and/or Jansen can stay healthy and dominant long enough, or hoping that a committee smiles on Billy Wags.

Frank Lyman from Amherst

1:32

But Ramos is a much better hitter (than Grandal).

Jay Jaffe

1:35

Eh, not so sure about that. Ramos has a 104 career wRC+, Grandal 114. Past three seasons its's 122-114 for Ramos, but in ~300 fewer PA, which gets back to the durability issue. I like Ramos a lot but I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot clown pole given his injury history.

1:35

do the mets have the best starters 1-3?

Jay Jaffe

1:36

I think you'd have to put the Astros and Indians in that discussion, at the very least. I think which way you go from there depends upon how many seasons you're considering because attendance counts.

stever20

1:36

What did you think with what Lovello did last night with Arizona- having the AAA team basically play. And how baseball is it, that it actually worked? Any shot that this could spark them, or are they done?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

Lovullo's statements had my eyebrows straining, for sure. I'm still trying to figure out what to make of them. Is he losing his mind? Is he losing the clubhouse? I need to know more before I make a judgement on that.

The one thing I do know is that the Diamondbacks are toast for 2018. 5 back in the wild card with 9 to play. Playoff odds of 0.5% See you next year.

Josh

1:38

As a dedicated Team Entropy member, what are the (incredibly slim) odds that the Yankees, A's and Rays all finish the season with the same record?

Jay Jaffe

1:40

Our ties page puts the odds of a 2-way tie for WC2 at 0.7%, and a three-way tie at 0.0%, which is to say 0.0499% or lower, as we only go out one digit. There's a 0.6% chance of a three-way tie in the NL though https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/tie-breaker

Dan the Mets Fan

1:41

Answer more questions about Jeff McNeil.

Jay Jaffe

1:41

Why?

McNeil before Zod

1:41

Solve the equation: Bruce + Vargas + x = j. Zimmermann + s. Greene

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