Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/22/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks!
Welcome to my final chat of the regular season.
12:02
The playoff picture is still unsettled. Yesterday I dove into the remaining possibility of tiebreaker scenarios https://blogs.fangraphs.com/untying-the-tiebreaker-scenarios-one-more-...
Alas, we won't get tiebreaker games because of the Fun Police at MLB headquarters
12:03
On Friday I checked in on Elly De La Cruz's big season https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-red-hot-elly-de-la-cruz/, and earlier last week I wrote about Pete Alonso's return to Citi Field https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pete-alonsos-return-to-citi-field-turns-me...
12:05
I'm working on something on the weakest spots on the remaining contenders. Aaron Judge was already in my lede due to the uncertainty regarding his calf strain, and now we've learned that he received a PPP injection https://bsky.app/profile/chelseajanes.bsky.social/post/3mw4kutow4s2a
12:07
The other night, my wife and I were watching the season 3 premiere of Shoresy, a hilarious show about Canadian senior hockey, and learned the term "four to six" as in being injured enough to be out four to six weeks. I'm spitballing as to the actual timeline but from the way the Yankees handled this from the outset, Judge was at least a soft four to six.

https://www.tiktok.com/@upnorth905/video/7373134598403919109?_d=secCgY...
anyway, on with the show
bosoxforlife
12:07
There is a chance, and at this time a very large chance, that the Red Sox-Cubs series in Boston will have serious weather problems as a strong northeaster will linger near the coast for the entire weekend. What is the scenario if the Cubs do not play some or all of these games?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
I haven't seen the weather report but we've seen in the past from extreme situations like hurricanes that MLB is willing to move playoff-relevant games to a neutral site in the case of weather issues. Moving to Chicago but having the Cubs play as the visitor might be another alternative.
Matthew VanWinkle
12:09
Both Schwarber and C. Montgomery are (just barely) on pace to break the single season record for striking out. Do you think either of them get there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
Mark Reynolds holds the record, with 223 strikeouts in 2009. Both Schwarber and Montgomery are at 216 with six games to play, and with their respective teams battling for playoff berths or at least seeding, there's no good reason to rest them for the sake of avoiding the record. Our Depth Charts projections forecast both to rack up another eight strikeouts, so don't be surprised if the record falls.
puddle
12:13
Assuming the Dodgers go with 13 position players on the playoff roster, that only leaves 4 bench spots. I think we can safely assume that 3 of those spots will go to Rojas, Keekay and Feduccia. That leaves one spot open for Call, Freeland, Kim or De Paula. The Dodgers would be crazy not to give JDP that last spot, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
superficially it makes a bit of sense but if Teoscar (who's swinging the bat extremely well) and Shohei (who's said to be close to activation and remains Shohei Ohtani) are available then that reduces JDP to a bench player. He's a lousy defender and has below-average speed, which basically confines him to pinch-hitting, and the only players whom he's likely to bat for are Kiké and Rojas if they're playing second base. Call has speed to go with his defensive ability and strength against lefties, and Kiké's versatility and October credentials are well established. It's going to be a tough call but I think the rookie gets left off
Philip Christy
12:20
If the Rays or Yankees don't make the Series this year, we're gonna be in for a lame series, tell me I'm wrong
Correction: in addition to the Rays and Yankees, the Red Sox would be an interesting WS team as well
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
I think any one of those three AL East teams would be the most competitive from among the potential field, but we've seen teams like the 2023 Diamondbacks get hot at the right time despite failing to clear .500 by a substantial margin. Some portion of the audience is always going to get attached to that kind of Cinderella story
jdonch
12:22
how'd you rank Field of Dreams, Bull Durham, and League of Their Own amongst themselves?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
I don't think Field of Dreams belongs in the same sentence as the other two. Those are great — among the best baseball movies ever made — but FoD stinks on ice for reasons that I and others have elaborated elsewhere.
the original Bad News Bears is the greatest baseball movie, of course.
Gunther042
12:25
Hey Jay, how does your view of someone like Tatis Jr change based on the PED suspension? On one hand, he hasn’t recaptured the power that made him the next A-Rod. On the other, he’s still an all-star caliber player who messed up EARLY in his career. Is he someone whose HOF case could meaningfully benefit from a redemption narrative?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
it's possible, though the motorcycle-induced injury that preceded his suspension compounds his mistake, especially as it cost the team an even better shot at the World Series than it had after acquiring Juan Soto. Until anybody with a PED violation is elected to the Hall, this is all spitballing; i think it will take at least a decade of exemplary behavior to give Tatis a shot assuming his stats merit it, and even then, I'm skeptical he'll be the guy for whom the longstanding precedent is broken.
war2d2
12:29
Your Team Entropy story made me think of the last day of the season in 2011, and how much fun that was. Sometimes it feels like MLB doesn’t even know what makes for a compelling product.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
The late-September drama that led up to that was the genesis of Team Entropy in the first place. MLB took a page from that by creating the one-game Wild Card playoffs — my favorite postseason format they've come up with — but ditched that with the 2022 CBA because money.
12:31
BRB, gotta flip the vinyl on my remastered reissue of Funkadelic's Maggot Brain, which arrived via mail this morning. I'm positively giddy. Please enjoy the interlude
JasonT
12:32
Where would you rank Gabriel Moreno among catchers in today's game?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
His 5.0 WAR is a career high and second among all catchers behind Dillin Dingler's 5.2, with strong offense (138 wRC+ and defense (including 8 FRV) so I'd say he's among the best in the game. And he's only 26, so particularly with JT Realmuto's decline and Will Smith's injuries, i think he has a very good chance of remaining on the top tier for awhile... if he can stay healthy. Which is a load-bearing IF for any catcher.
dirtypuer
12:35
Who should the ire of Mariners fans be directed towards?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
I don't know where to start but Dan Wilson and Jerry Dipoto are both in there. I can't believe Wilson has lasted this long amid this season's underperformance, and while I think Dipoto made some moves that looked like they should have paid off, there have been times in recent years that he didn't do enough. Some of that has to reflect ownership's limitations on his spending.
12:39
The players aren't blameless, either. Julio Rodríguez is in the midst of a career-worst year, Cal Raleigh turned into a pumpkin, as did Josh Naylor. Mitch Garver and Rob Refsnyder were virtually unplayable... the list goes on.
JasonT
12:40
Do you expect Torey Lovullo to be retained?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
I think both he and Mike Hazen will be retained, mainly because I haven't heard any bluster from Ken Kendrick, the Desert Steinbrenner.
Tyler Banks
12:41
What do you make of Tyler Mahle? Seems Braves should attempt to extend/res-sign him, what would that look like?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
When he's healthy — which isn't tremendously often, as he's made more than 25 starts just once before this season (he's at 26) — he's a solid 4th starter. He's been great since coming to the Braves, but he wasn't good with the Giants earlier in the year. I don't think a team has to get terribly attached to a specific no. 4 guy in free agency. I suspect he'll end up with something like the 2/$22 million deal he worked under for 2024-25.
Alex Remington
12:45
On paper, Atlanta's been one of the better teams in the league this year. But as they head into the playoffs, it's hard to think too optimistically about their chances – the pitching staff is Chris Sale and pray for rain, and the offense consists of a lot of veterans having down years (Albies, Riley, Kim, Murphy, Acuña). Maybe Mahle is an okay playoff starter, and maybe some of the vets turn it around against the October gas, but how do you handicap the squad?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
The reality is that most of the Braves' competition has issues as well. For the Dodgers, Ohtani is dealing with injuries, Freeman's knee is an issue, and who knows how quickly Pages will recover his pre-injury form. The Phillies don't look as strong as they did entering the postseason last year, and — I'll say it — their manager isn't as good either. We're all wondering whether this is the Brewers' year, but really, it's just a matter of which team gets hot, and it wouldn't surprise me if, like, Austin Riley (to pull an example out of thin air rather than basing it on any underlying data) suddenly plays like an All-Star again for a month.
Pirates Hurdles
12:49
Are you anti-all Kinsella or just applying modern views to 1986 (lack of Negro league inclusion)? I would argue that some of the Thrill of the Grass and the Iowa Baseball Confederacy are quite good baseball lit.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
I haven't read any Kinsella so I'm only reacting to the movie, but you can shove that James Earl Jones speech up Kevin Costner's ass for the way the movie fails to acknowledge segregation.
Woody1937
12:51
Do you think Jim, Jim or Jim has the best shot to make it into the Blueberry Bulldogs HOF? Jim especially shows a lot of tenacity with his physicality.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Yeah, I'd go with Jim over Jim and Jim, though sometimes it's more clear than others
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