JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 9/22/26

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 9/22/26

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daml91

12:54

Gotta think DeGrom has to be in after his last two healthy seasons for TEX or it's going to be looking quite grim indeed for pitchers in Cooperstown?

Philip Christy

12:54

If Wheeler can keep this up for 2-3 more years, he's got a HOF shot, right?

Jay Jaffe

12:55

I did my annual roundup of candidates for Cooperstown less than a month ago, and both deGrom and Wheeler made the "helped themselves in 2026" list https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-chris-sale-and-others...

That said, neither of them has done enough that I think they'd be elected today, and if Wheeler hangs 'em up after 2027 when his contract expires, I'm skeptical he'll get in. Likewise, I think deGrom has to remain productive for at least another few years to have a real shot. For both, it's going to take a sea change to get the kind of support they'll need from voters who have previously been tied to the big milestone numbers.

watertexas8445

12:57

Paul Skenes recently attributed much of his struggles this year to the WBC. 1. How much do you believe that vs deflecting blame and 2. A lot of WBC players have had subpar or straight up bad years. Is that a real effect or just usual fluctuations?

Jay Jaffe

12:59

presumably, he's still dealing with the embarrassment caused by that "almost served in the military" nonsense.

1:01

I think it's the easiest cop out to blame the WBC. While we do remember the major injuries, historically plenty of guys have had no trouble after participating, so I don't put much stock in his complaint. Nor do I have much sympathy, as Skenes and Team USA were particularly chest-thumpy, humorless, and disgustingly militaristic about representing this country. (see also Cal Raleigh).

ED44

1:02

Some chatter among Reds fans about who is more responsible for the morbid state of the franchise, the FO or ownership. Clearly plenty of blame to go around, but until the Castellinis et al sell the team, ownership will remain a problem. So, in what world could this ownership group possibly bring Nick Krall back? The track record is abysmal.

Jay Jaffe

1:03

it all starts with ownership, because for however much you want to heap the blame on Krall for some of his choices not panning out, those choices can't be separated from the limitations placed upon him. Just last year, he was getting plaudits for the Reds making the postseason for the first time (in a full season) since 2013. The problem is larger than him.

Patrick Burke

1:03

Is the Yankees' pitching good enough to withstand no Judge?

Jay Jaffe

1:07

Not unless Gerrit Cole rediscovers the feel for his curveball. In 2024, opponents slugged .239 against it, but this year they're at .586, with the whiff rate dropping from 30.1% to 19.6%. Schlittler, Fried, and Rodón are good, and Will Warren OK; they need Cole to rise to the occasion, though I fear he may be gassed as he nears the end of his first season back from TJ

snakestl

1:08

Rewatched Long Gone Summer with the kids a couple of weeks ago and still great to see you and Ben L. featured.

Jay Jaffe

1:08

Aw, thanks for the kind words. Proud of my contributions both to that one and to the Pete Rose doc series.

Rick

1:09

Hi Jay, Thanks for all your input this year. Rumfield has done a solid job playing first base for Colorado, but do you think he can unlock a bit more power next year?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

our prospect team put a 45 grade on Rumfield's raw power, and he's done just fine (124 wRC+) without hitting the ball very hard, which works in Colorado because of the massive outfield. You always want to look to improve and adjust but I'd resist the temptation to overhaul him in the hopes that he possibly conforms to a more traditional positional profile. Leave well enough alone unless he's struggling.

puddle

1:13

The Dodgers playoff bullpen is about as settled as my stomach after a Duo Chicken Gordita Crunch meal from Taco Bell. With presumably 9 open spots, the only locks I can see are probably Scott, Vesia, Dreyer, (3 lefties) and Henriquez (if healthy). That means they have to pick 5 from the following: Diaz, Bubic, Phillips, Stewart, Sheehan, Sasaki, Treinen, Wrobleski. Who do you think makes the cut?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

Sasaki will definitely be there, and maybe Sheehan as the long man. Bubic was acquired to be an October surprise. Wrobo has been terrible lately, I think he's gassed and would leave him off. Díaz is going to have to be absolutely awesome to merit inclusion; I'm skeptical but I'm only going on his rehab results. I prefer Phillips to Stewart or Treinen at this stage but don't know how they view them internally (well, they have lots of MRIs on all of 'em... )

Daniel Eck

1:17

re: deGrom and Wheeler. Do you ever look at era-adjusted JAWS to inform your opinion on HOF cases? Both are easy HOFers by that metric

Jay Jaffe

1:21

I can look at it all I want, but the problem is that you're still asking a body of ~400 voters to make a wholesale change in their personal standards and attitudes, and not all of those voters are known for their flexibility, ahem. many are going to view the Sabathia-Greinke-Kershaw-Verlander-Scherzer-Sale group getting in as ample representation compared to the paucity of starters getting in from 2016-24 (only Mussina and Halladay).

snakestl

1:22

Castellinis...Where else ya gonna go? Anyone who spends their money on the team after hearing that line...fool me once...

Jay Jaffe

1:22

Yeah, that was a death sentence for the current ownership — and he said that in 2022, one full CBA ago. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33727113/cincinnati-reds-president...

krob4385

1:23

Can the Mets bounce back next year? I am very depressed.

Jay Jaffe

1:24

A lot is going to depend on the extent to which Stearns (who isn't going to be fired, sorry folks) can undo the mistake of the past offseason. Given the impending lockout, I think his task will be that much harder so... I'd brace myself for a lean year.

Matthew VanWinkle

1:24

Apologies if you've addressed this before, but on average how many HOFers are active in a given year?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

historically the average is roughly 1.5 per season per team, but that fluctuates widely from era to era and is based on a long period of access to secondary elections (Veterans or Era Committee).

triplesandtea

1:28

If you had to be a voter for a non-baseball Hall of Fame, what would you want to vote on? Note that your answer does not need to be a real/currently in existence Hall of Fame

Jay Jaffe

1:29

I joke about Astronaut JAWS (I've tried but never gotten anywhere) but I've been fascinated by the history of space travel and read a few books on the Apollo program, etc. A space travel HOF would be fun to be involved in.

OK folks, that's it from me this week. No chat next week, as I'll be covering the Yankees-Red Sox Wild Card Series from Yankee Stadium.

I believe we'll be having our Wild Card group chat that day or the next. Thanks for stopping by!

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