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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/24/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
It's tough to time the market perfectly, but this is a very impressive crop of shortstops even with Lindor peeled off and Story at less than 100%. The guys who'd be in play are likely the ones signing deals of 6-plus years, so if it takes an extra year to get to contending it's still probably worth it.
Derek
2:39
Has Lux's late season resurgence (or just "surgence"?) restored faith in him to any significant degree?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
Whose faith? I don't think the Dodgers have lost faith in him, just decided that they had better choices for the immediate opportunities. Good on him for taking advantage of his latest one; it may be that he's got more of a future in the outfield or bouncing around the diamond than as a 2B fixture. The next Chris Taylor, with the original approaching free agency? maybe.
Fraudman
2:42
What kind of contract do you see Chris Taylor pulling? Seems like he's lost a LOT of money in the past 2 months.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
he hasn't been healthy lately, but I think he'll be fine. Probalby something in the Zobristian 4-year range, maybe around $60 million.
Kevin Kiermaier
2:44
Was me grabbing the Blue Jays pitching plan card cheating or a heads up play?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
heads-up play. You bring your cheat sheet on the field, it's on you to protect it, and if it falls into my hands, tough shit.

Weak sauce by the Blue Jays in saying it was "agua under the bridge" (Montoyo's words) and then drilling him anyway. I'd have suspended both him and Borucki for longer.
Puster Bosey
2:46
I don’t think my Giants are cheating, but I think it’s a perfectly fair question to ask given the recent cheating scandals
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
nah, it's weak as hell. Particularly in the past half-decade, we've seen that given the  flood of good information in the hands of skilled coaches and players willing to buy in, career paths are more malleable than ever. Players change their swings and find more power, shape new pitches, turn themselves from fringe guys to All-Stars. Falling back on "must be PEDs" or "must be sign stealing" is just pathetic. If you're so cynically debilitated that cheating is your first assumption, find another sport.
Mariners
2:50
Umm...the Mariners have a pretty weak schedule over the rest of the season.  Could they really make the wild card?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
They have a 5.4% chance, per our Playoff Odds. They have to leapfrog the Blue Jays AND the Yankees without playing either, which makes it harder. Not impossible, but harder.
Cube Jockey
2:53
Would you prefer Arozarena long term to any of the Cards current OF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
Yes, probably over Bader, maybe even over O'Neill, whose high strikeout rate worries me.
Mrs. Phanatic
2:54
Does Kyle Kendrick get any HOF votes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
10 years, 81 wins, and a 4.68 ERA won't even land him on the ballot.
Max Scherzer's Third Eye
2:55
Did Scherzer and Buehler impact their Cy Young chances this week, or will voters largely ignore the starts since they were at Colorado?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
I think Buehler's multiple rough starts have probably dropped him from the top tier in the eyes of voters, and still think people are overlooking Burnes.

But letting Ramiel Tapia upper-deck you, even in Coors, is never a good look if you're trying to win a Cy
Tommy g
2:57
The biggest difference between Nicky Lopez 2019&2020 vs Nicky Lopez 2021 is his BABIP went from ~.270 to ~.350.
Any reason to believe that Nicky Lopez's profile can sustain a .330-.350 BABIP and this breakout is for real?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
I don't see it as sustainable given his 86.9 average exit velo, 0.7% barrel rate, and 26.9% hard-hit rate, .242 xBA, etc.
Guest
2:58
Re: NL MVP: He won't win, but Trea Turner certainly deserves some votes.  How would you account for the fact that he spent half the year on a different team?  (It's hard to say he was particularly "valuable" to the Dodgers while he was playing for Washington, after all.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
I'm certainly not married to the idea that the MVP has to come from a contender. He was valuable to Washington, it's just that most of his teammates (besides Scherzer and Soto, obv.) weren't.
Ross
3:00
How should Mariner's fans feel about Kelenic's season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
A tough season for the kid but he hasn't quit, and we've seen some second-half improvement (.203/.285/.401). The final numbers will be ugly, and arguably if he'd at least delivered that it might have been enough to make up the ground between being in a Wild Card spot and scrambling desperately for one behind 2 other teams. But what can you do except hope that better days are ahead?
Ross
3:02
Who would be your biggest FA target if Jerry Dipoto called for your advice?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
Carlos Correa (move Crawford to 2B), and then Max Scherzer.
Devos
3:04
The 86 win Cardinals beat the 105 win Dodgers in the coin flip game in extra innings with a ghost runner rule. Does anything change with the format?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
there won't be any Manfred Man in the postseason
(there would be in a tiebreaker game, which is considered part of the regular season)
3:06
I don't know that a single upset is going to change the playoff structure and with everything that's on the table in the upcoming CBA negotation it will be tough to isolate and say that a single result is why it changed to a best-of-3 or lower-seed-needs-2-wins format
Guest
3:06
Re: favorite FA pitcher:  Does Robbie Ray's season put him in the running?  I might prefer him even over Scherzer, given the age difference.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
I like Ray, but his career has been erratic, and i'd rather commit 3 years to Max than 5 or 6 to Ray
Key Flaw
3:08
When thinking about HOFers, the ones with younger starts to their career are more likely to make it, and this makes sense because if you are awesome young, you are probably awesome. But in terms of JAWS, does the younger start have more of effect on the counting stats or the peak? For example, do the HOFers that debuted in the late teens/early 20s have a strictly accumulation advantage or does their early starts often inclue their peak (Andruw Jones-like)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
you know, the question of where peak seasons land in a career for HOFers is probably a question I should study more closely, but one I need help executing (I don't deal with big data on my own very well). But it stands to reason that the earlier start has more to do with counting stats and career WAR than the peak WAR.
sam
3:14
What do you think Rodon gets this offseason
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
Sorry had to pause for some child care (kiddo's got a cold and had to stay home from school today)
3:16
throwing a dart on Rodon, i'll say something like 3/$33M+ option.
Hyde
3:19
What is wrong with Kikuchi? So much talent, but the results mostly suck since coming stateside. No way the M's pick up his option at this point.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
just a guess but looking at his pitch splits on Statcast, he just doesn't have much that plays well versus righties. 2021 wOBA vs righties on FF is .363, CH is .171, CT .418, SL .387. That's not gonna cut it
Brian
3:22
Do you know what the 2nd tiebreaker is for draft order? 1st is last season's record, and currently #9-#12 (Royals, Rockies, Angels, and Mets) all had the same 26-34 record last year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
Seen a couple versions of this today, but I don't know the answer. Eric or Kevin would
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