You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/24/21
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
AnotherAnnoyingDodgerFan
3:22
Hi Jay! Thanks for putting out  so much great content. Where do you think the Dodger's priorities should be this offseason? If you were Friedman, with a large but not unlimited budget (assuming, for sake of argument, that Bauer and his money are non-factors), how would you handle and prioritize the 5 big FAs (I'm including Taylor and Jansen) going into the offseason.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
it's such a tough call but Taylor and Jansen are clearly behind the others, with Kenley probably number five (sorry, man). it's probably Kershaw and Scherzer ahead of Seager given the Trea Turner trade.
Guest
3:25
was listening to EW and had no idea you had a Milwaukee connection and RAN IN THE SAUSAGE RACE. Would love to see a full article on how that went down, what it was like, etc... but would you do it again?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
The connection owed to a friendship between my now ex-wife and a long-gone friend of hers in the Brewers' front office on the business side. Wrote about it at the time http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/09/hot_doggin_it_a_1.php
3:27
I'm the Hot Dog. Mark Grant (Padres announcer) is the Polish Sausage; he and his partner won that race
Guest
3:27
if you were a professional wrestler, what would your gimmick be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
A copy of Total Baseball to drop on my opponent's head
Team Entropy
3:28
St Louis seems to have messed up all the WC entropy in the NL.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
The Cardinals have made a point of mucking up my plans for a good long time now. Nothing new
David
3:29
If Wainwright had two more seasons like this, would that be enough for Cooperstown consideration?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
to my mind, not at all — two more 3.3 bWAR seasons gets him to 51 career WAR, which isn't somebody I'd support for the Hall.
TT
3:31
Speaking of Soto, September slash line .473/.608/.838.  His BB/SO is 26/6 (74 AB)    He's 22yo.  Crazy!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
Bonkers.
WinTwins0410
3:32
Jay, we've discussed in previous years the topic of an empty HoF stage in an upcoming year. I think that an empty stage is absolutely likely in 2022. It seems highly likely that none of the following get in from the writers in 2022: Ortiz, A-Rod, Schilling, Bonds and Clemens. It's almost a certainty. And if the two Golden Days guys you're advocating for the most (Allen and Minoso) are the only two who get in, then there'll be an empty stage in 2022.  Any thoughts on that, as well as on how the Hall would view that?  Could you see the Hall "nudging" the Golden Days committee to vote to induct someone living (Oliva, Kaat, Wills)?  I don't sense the Hall has done that in the past (Era Committees have had plenty of past shutouts!), but I'm just curious what your thoughts are. I'm not suggesting that Tony Oliva on stage would be a huge traffic driver (assuming things go back to the way they were, pre-COVID), but I have to think that the Hall cares about this kind of thing, and knows everything I wrote above.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
it won't be an "empty stage" as somebody will be on hand to represent any posthumous honoree, but it would be weird. While I don't plan to vote for Ortiz, I'm not entirely convinced he won't be elected, as incongruous as it may be given his standing relative to other PED-linked-but-not-suspended players on the ballot. And I don't think the Hall can afford to be seen putting its thumb on the scale when it comes to the committees, because the ramifications are longer term than the very modest bump an Oliva/Kaat/Wills produces for attendance
Olay
3:36
How much of a factor is location when trying to attract any given free agent? If the Los Angeles Dodgers were the Minneapolis Dodgers, how much would it matter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
location matters for any one of a number of reasons. Market size, revenue, ownership, taxes, proximity to family... there are a lot of variables and two players can view the same location very differently
Olay
3:37
Why do umpiring crews still get replay calls wrong?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
Because umpiring isn't an easy job and the replay setup is far from perfect, too.
Olay
3:37
How do you feel about the current number of baseball teams?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:38
I think it's time to expand to 32 but that it needs to come after some economic reforms.
Olay
3:38
Was Tom Glavine actually that good?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:38
more of a compiler than a dominator, but a very, very, very good and skilled compiler.
Jose
3:39
What about Brandon Crawford for MVP?  Most fWAR for on offensive player on a playoff bound team.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:40
i think he'll get some support, and if I'm filling out a 10-man ballot he's probably the Giant I'd have in there, but I just don't see enough to overcome the huge statistical advantages that Harper/Tatis/Soto have on him
Mike Ortman
3:40
Last week you commented to the effect that you weren't so sure about Altuve's HOF candidacy.  Apologies if I got that wrong.  But looking at his stats and his age, he sure looks like he's well on his way.  Counting stats, black ink, WAR, peak.  Is there something I'm missing?  The "banging scheme" will weigh in for sure, but I don't think will keep him out.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:44
I think people underestimate the chances of attrition. Second basemen tend not to age as well because of the vulnerability to injury (see Pedroia) and the limitations that put them at the position in the first place (not enough arm for left-side infield). We've already seen Altuve put up bad half-seasons and they're pretty unsightly. For any 30ish player, it still takes a lot more going right than one would assume in order to get to the Hall.
Ben Cherington
3:44
Barry Bonds had a mustache.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:44
sometimes yes, not all the time though.
Billy G
3:45
White Sox are only 25-29 vs over 500 teams? Does that impact how you view them for the playoffs at all?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:46
sure. And I think they've got an uphill battle against Houston, assuming the Astros don't catch the Rays for #1 seed.
BohmNeverTouchedHome
3:47
You sure Harper's team won't make the playoffs?  Braves' 2-game lead is looking shaky, and the teams play 3 next week.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:47
Sure? No. but our odds give them a 24.5% chance, and with the Phillies, I've learned that it's wise to take the under
Tommy g
3:48
Is xBABIP a thing? If no, should it be and would it provide value? If yes, where can I find it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:50
i've seen multiple attempts to do xBABIP going back for more than a decade.
I don't think anybody has really nailed it, but that's not to say they haven't tried
Northside
3:51
Re: Kyle Hendricks not being on the ballot. How is it determined who gets on the ballot? And what should the threshold be? Would a very good not great player like Anthony Rizzo be on the ballot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:53
you (or somebody) said Kyle Kendrick, not Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks is probably bound for a ballot if he lasts long enough.

The way it works is that there's a 6-member screening committee made up of BBWAA writers. Each potential candidate with 10 years has to be nominated by two of those six members.
3:54
it's tough to tell who will get nominated until we see where a player's final numbers come in but I'd assume the key players for the Cubs' 2016 champions, like Rizzo and Hendricks, will be on there at some point.
Connecting…