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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/30/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
This is Jordan Montgomery erasure and I won't stand for it!
2:43
I don't see Wainwright as having the numbers for the Hall
(and I'm kidding about Montgomery, but Andrw Knizner is another story... )
Moose
2:43
Kelenic’s reemergence means that we’re done with The Jesse Winker Experience in left field, right? Seems like the M’s OF setup for the postseason will be Kelenic/Julio/Haniger against righties, and Haggerty/Julio/Haniger against lefties.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
it's great to see Kelenic having success and I hope it continues, but we're talking about one very good week in September against three bad teams, so I think it might be premature to ink anything in. Winker's already been signed for next season and while a trade is certainly possible (Dipoto gonna Dipoto), it's also worth noting that Haniger is a free agent.

That said, i think you might be right about the playoff configurations IF Kelenic continues to look good
Matt
2:48
Do the phillies keep Thomson as manager if they miss the playoffs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
I think so. The young players seem to have responded to the change and Harper has endorsed him
Marshall
2:49
Who has had a better 5-year run: these Dodgers or the Giants from last decade? I.e., how do you weight WS titles vs regular season performance?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
that's a huge philosophical question. American sports culture favors counting the rings for what happens over the small sample of October games but it's downright incredible what the Dodgers have done over the past four seasons.
suffice it to say I'm going to revisit this question after the season, building on something I've done after each of the previous two
Pat
2:52
What do you think of Luke Easter as a possible Negro League HOF inductee? Hit over 90 HR from age 34-37, 12 WAR in 3.5 years. Pretty easy to say he may have been 450-500HR guy if given a shot when he was 20 year old.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
The legend is long and what little performance we have of him on record is very impressive but it's really, really hard to envision him  leapfrogging so many other Negro Leagues candidates because of so much that's missing. If John Donaldson can't do it (though maybe one day he will) I'm not sure Easter can.
Appa Yip Yip
2:54
Who are you going to in game 3 of the wild card series, José Berríos or Ross Stripling?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
Chicken Strip, as the Dodgers called him. I'm not ready to give up on Berrios long term but right now he's a mess
Tom
2:56
So, uh... what do the Yankees do if Judge walks?  Lose 100 games?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
Spend on Correa or Trea Turner and trade for some outfield power, would be my guess
WinTwins0410
3:00
Jay, may I ask a (slightly) controversial question?  Do you think that any pitchers were grooving pitches to Pujols to help get him to 700?  There's been some chatter on Twitter about that -- is that just talk, or do you think there was some truth to it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
I thought Steve Goldman nailed it here:  https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/77662/you-could-look-i...)
3:03
I get why people assume the worst and do their best to suck the joy out of stuff like this given the way MLB handled the PED era, but i just don't think it's productive to default to assumptions like conspiracies and foul play
Appa Yip Yip
3:03
Don't the angels use a six man rotation? A lot of hay is made about Ohtani taking up only one roster spot but if the team just uses that extra spot for a sixth starter are they really getting any great benefit?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
it's probably impossible to quantify all of the costs and benefits that come with the move to a 6-man rotation (it may help some guys! It may keep them healthier! Or maybe not!), and the Angles aren't the only team that have used one for at least part of the season.
JB
3:05
who has been your favorite rookie this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
Spencer Strider has been unreal
Aj
3:05
Do you think the new changes in the Hall of Fame veterans' committees will help Vic Harris get in? In my mind, he's the most deserving manager candidate outside of the hall with Bochy, Baker, and Francona being the only other ones who deserve enshrinement.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
It surprised me a bit how strong his showing was (10 votes) amid that Early Baseball crowd (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/half-a-dozen-era-committee-honorees-for-th...). that doesn't guarantee him election next time given the format change but he does have a strong playing career to go with his managerial career
Aj
3:08
I know earlier in the year you said you supported Arenado over Goldschmidt for the NL MVP, have your opinions or rankings changed?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
They've both scuffled this September. I'm actually of the mind right now that i'd think about Manny Machado given how much less help he's had keeping the Padres in this while having significantly less help. They're all within 0.1 of each other by fWAR, though Machado is a beat behind them in bWAR. I'd look more closely before casting my ballot, which is tough to do while chatting.
Tradition
3:12
What's interesting is when Trout lost ten years ago, we in the more analytically inclined crowd thought he was robbed when people liked "traditional" stats more. And now, Judge is technically leading in both traditional and underlying stats, so the discourse has shifted to what the stats can't capture. Mostly I think we're having an internet argument and Judge probably wins the vote fairly easily, but it's interesting the difference from 2012.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
I think our brains just haven't all caught up with how incredible it is that Ohtani is excelling at hitting and pitching
Aj
3:13
Your pick for AL Cy Young? It's hard for me to pick between Cease and Verlander, but I'm biased towards the latter
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
Very close call, with each one having about a 1-win advantage over the other in flavors of WAR. I'd probably lean Verlander because of the context of coming back from TJ (nobody his age has had this much success doing so) but I don't think there's a wrong answer between those two
Randy
3:15
NYY rolling again it seems, are we underrating them going into october?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
I think we may be overrating them a little because of September. Remember, there's very little correlation between how a team does in September and how it will fare in October https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-impressive-winning-streak-do..., and I don't think the Yankees' pitching or lineup are as strong as what got them here, particularly without a fully functioning LeMahieu,  Carpenter and bullpen.
Jon
3:18
That Pedroia pun was definitely intended
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
He has 6,777 career plate appearances, which is lower than anybody elected from the post-1960 expansion era, what word would you use?
Jon
3:20
Wait, is Alvarez eligible for the postseason? Is that a new rule this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
No, he was in the organization as of September 1, which is the rule.
Alan
3:20
The recent Wainwright-Molina milestone reminded me again that Bill Freehan hasn't gotten a fair shake from HOF voters. But what about Mickey Lolich? Is he a solid candidate? (Apologies if you've written about him and I missed it.)
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