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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/30/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
Lolich has an S-JAWS of 39.7 which puts him 148th in the rankings. There are good pitchers down there — he's tied withVida Blue and about a point ahead of Jon Lester — but that's not a Hall of Famer.
SH, Jr
3:22
Is the needle moving at all on the Reds’ narrative? They handled the messaging poorly but most of their actual decisions since last off-season, taken in context of a decision to rebuild, look smarter now than they did at the time, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
They did well with their trade haul at the deadline but I look at their lineup and see setbacks for India, Senzel, and Barrero so I think it's gonna be awhile before this looks any good
RAndoM
3:24
How much does a shorter career hurt a player's HOF chances?  And are there any players who you think would have better chances had their careers lasted a few more years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
Considering that 2,000 hits and 200 wins have functioned as practical floors for players of the expansion era, I'd say longevity matters a ton. The list of guys who would have made the Hall with longer careers could fill a book
olethros
3:26
I just posted this as a comment on the 60s piece, but this is fun to me.                                                                                                    Player A: .591 W-L%, 11.1 K-BB%, 1.19 WHIP, 78 ERA-, 82.3 fWAR
Player B: .594 W-L%, 11.90 K-BB%, 1.22 WHIP, 78 ERA-, 76.5 fWAR
Both have over 200 W and 3000 IP.
Player B is Kevin Brown.
Player A is Bob Gibson.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
I think if Brown had the postseason dominance of Gibson and a clean sheet for PEDs he'd be in. Then again, "the postseason dominance of Gibson" is like saying "the grace of Willie Mays in center field," in that you're gonna wind up with a list of 1.
Bonds Brain
3:28
Do you find the online discourse about how 61 is the "real" record as nauseating as I do?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
Yes, but I also think that 61/62 are worth celebrating because they do mean *something*, particularly for a Yankees player.
Domingo
3:29
What does Verlander's comeback have to do with his Cy Young case?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
because I find the two cases to be pretty close to a tie, i have my idea of a tiebreaker (see here for the research about JV and TJ https://blogs.fangraphs.com/justin-verlanders-incredible-post-tommy-jo...). You are free to have your own
Dan!
3:31
Huge step forward for the Mariners this year. What do you see them doing in the off-season? Swanson? Judge? Nimmo? Rodon? If you were running them, who's on your list?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
I'd be shocked if they spent big on any of those guys, with the possible exception of Nimmo, whose deal won't be as big. They have a shortstop locked in via the Crawford extension, they've got two pitchers with $100+ million deals, and they've got an outfielder with a $200+ million deal.

If the Braves re-sign Swanson, I might look at trying to trade for Albies, since Grissom seems ready. A bopper for first base or DH seems necessary as well.
SH, Jr
3:35
Is the water crisis out west likely to affect Arizona ball in the near future? Is the recent submersion of western Florida likely to affect any team complexes and plans in the immediate future?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
It sounds like the Red Sox's Fort Myers facility didn't sustain much damage, and I don't know if there are any short term concerns in either state regarding facilities, but long-term, climate change raises some very real questions about training sites in both Arizona and Florida
3:40
While there are more questions in the queue I'd like to answer, I've gotta call it for now, folks. Thanks so much for stopping by this week. Not sure what next week holds yet with the start of the playoffs — probably a group chat. Stay tuned!
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